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Regional Workshop on Agriculture-Related Issues in The Preparation for Accession to The WTO Countries in the Process of Accession to the WTO in the Near East: Major Agriculture and Food Security Issues Nasredin Hag Elamin FAO Regional Office for the Near East, Cairo Importance of Agriculture Agriculture employs the majority of the population in most of the countries (tab) Agriculture is the main source of livelihood for the rural people In some countries, the share of agriculture in total merchandise exports is very high Agricultural trade is highly concentrated in a few commodities (back) Importance of Agriculture Share of agric in GDP 2005-07 Agric Population (% in total pop.) 2007 Share of agric in total exports 2003-05 Share of agric in total Imports 2003-05 Afghanistan 36.0 66.3 30.0 51.1 Algeria 8.0 23.5 0.2 15.7 Iran 9.7 25.5 4.5 17.6 Iraq na 9.2 11.0 9.2 Lebanon 6.3 3.3 10.7 4.8 Libya 5.6 5.3 0.1 5.4 Somalia 6.3 70.3 51.0 70.3 Sudan 32.7 59.2 22.0 46.0 Syria 19.3 27.1 19.0 23.2 Yemen 10.0 48.4 2.4 29.2 Source: FAOSTAT, FAO; World Development Indicators, 2008, World Bank Food Security Status Number of undernourished is high in most of the countries Little progress has been achieved in meeting the MDG and WFS Targets More than 75% of the poor and undernourished reside in rural areas Undernourished Population, 1990-92, 2002-04 Total population (million) Number of people undernourished (million) Proportion of undernourished in total population (%) 2001-03 1990–92 2002-2004 1990 - 92 2002-2004 Algeria 31.3 1.3 1.4 4.0 4.3 Iran 68.1 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.6 Lebanon 3.6 0.1 0.1 3.5 2.7 Libya 5.4 0.0 * 0.0 — Sudan 32.9 7.9 8.7 32 25.7 Syria 17.4 0.7 0.6 5 4 Yemen 19.3 4.2 7.6 34.0 38.2 Source: FAOSTAT, AFO; World Development Indicators CD-Rom, 2008, World Bank Major Challenges Facing Agriculture Water scarcity Acute scarcity (< 500 m3 per capita ): Algeria, Libya, Yemen Stress (500 – 1000): Lebanon, Somalia, Syria Abundance (1700): Iraq, Iran, Sudan Global average (5000 m3 per capita) Coping with drought and natural disasters High dependence on rainfall Frequent incidence of droughts Low productivity per unit of land and water High dependence on food imports Loss of several export markets (cotton, dates, livestock, raisins) Compliance with the growing demand for high quality and standards in world markets Food Imports The majority of these countries are net food importers with high and increasing dependence on food imports (tab) Nature of the problem: - Severe scarcity of irrigation water - Changing consumption pattern - High variability in rain fall, hence fluctuations in production of basic foods Cereals: percentage share of imports in total domestic consumption 1980-83 1990-93 2002 –05 Libya 81 91 90 Algeria 67 68 69 Yemen 48 72 84 Iran 28 26 19 Syria 27 28 28 Sudan 11 19 25 Lebanon na 90 87 (back) Emphasis of Current Strategies: Priority Areas for Action Increasing water use efficiency Raising agricultural productivity per unit of land and water resources Diversification of production and trade into high value crops and processed products Enhancing competitiveness of farmers, processors and traders Improving market access conditions to foreign markets, particularly in Europe, the major market Safeguarding against import surges and unfair trade practices Raising self sufficiency (in some countries) What the WTO Accession Mean for these Countries? Policy Framework - Obligations Outcome - Potential gains - Rights - Potential risks Risks Reduced policy space to design domestic priorities along existing strategies Some of the emerging and growing sectors/subsectors may prematurely be exposed to unnecessary, and possibly unfair, external competition Accession to WTO: Some Concerns Lack of clarity on expected benefits and costs (for agriculture) of joining the WTO – in the short and long terms Lack of, and difficulties in conducting, comprehensive and credible studies to assess impact of accession to the WTO on agriculture and rural development, trade and food security Preparing schedules of commitments in a way that serves the economic and social development in the country Securing flexibility through negotiations: Maintaining the necessary domestic policy flexibility Safeguarding the economy from world market hazards and unfair trade practices Access to developed country markets, particularly the EU