Transcript PPT - United Nations Statistics Division

LIBERIA ANNUAL NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
Kampala, Uganda
4/10/2016
1
OUTLINES
• Historical highlights of Liberia National Accounts
activities
• The first post war National Accounts Annual Survey –
2008
• National Accounts Framework
• Main Policy Issues
• 2012 NAAS – Methodology
• 2012 NAAS Preliminary Findings
• Other National Activities
• Constraints
• Way forward
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HISTORICAL HIGHLIGHTS OF NA Activities
• MPEA conducted its first pre-war comprehensive
NAAS in 1986 and was able to publish the results in
1987. The results included National Accounts
indicators, tables and graphs.
• A second attempt was made in 2001 but failed due to
low response rate, the results could not be analyzed.
• As a result, estimates derived over the years have
been based on administrative and other related
records. Additionally, where there were no data,
projections were made.
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THE FIRST POST WAR NAAS -2008
• LISGIS conducted Liberia first post war NAAS in 2009 considering
2008 accounting period.
• NAAS collected detailed information from establishments on their
Income and Production for an accounting period in 2008. The
Consumption approach.
• GDP estimates obtained from the 2008 NAAS was US$2.02 billion
and GDP per capita was US$582 in nominal term.
• GDP sectoral distribution1:
Agriculture ----- 23.80%
Industry
------ 20.70%
Services
------ 55.50%
• 1.5 billion was agreed and accepted.
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THE FIRST POST WAR NAAS -2008
• It was agreed by the GOL and IMF that the results obtained
from the 2008 NAAS be used as an experimental values until
2014 where a more realistic GDP estimates would be
generated.
• Compilation methodology improved by using the 1993
Systems of National Accounts (SNA) instead of the 1968
edition;
• Updating of classification by adopting the latest version of the
ISIC rev 4; and
• The above measures have led to changes in the size of the
GDP, sectors contributions and all the related indicators that
have GDP as their common denominator.
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Main Policy Issues
• Timely availability of GFS to compile National Accounts
estimates.
• Revising the NSDS to enhance coordination,
improvement and compilation of official statistics.
• Implementation of the Household Income and
Expenditure Survey to improve CPI basket, produce GDP
using the Expenditure Approach.
• Strengthening LISGIS Statistical Act.
• Producing reliable time-series National Accounts covering
2008 to 2014 by mid 2015.
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National Accounts Framework
•
•
•
•
National Accounts currently uses the 2008 SNA.
Activities are categorized based on ISIC rev 4.
Compilation is currently based on Production Approach.
GDP is compiled using the establishments data and other
administrative records including Government Financial Statistics.
• 2008 compilation was based SUT at constant and current prices.
• Current compilation considers annual data for 2010 and 2011.
• Limitation - the informal sector is not fully covered.
• This limitation will be addressed when the Household Income and
Expenditure Survey (HIES) is concluded – it will be conducted from
January 2014 to December 2014
• The HIES will also improve the CPI basket that is currently used and
enhances the GOL Agenda for Transformation.
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2012 NAAS METHODOLOGY
• Sample frame for the 2012 NAAS was a merged list of 2010/2011 Liberia
Business Registry and the 2007 National Establishment Census with a total of
6245 establishments.
• Sample design was based on the following steps:
 Establishments were stratified based on employment size, activity and
region- Six (6) regions and fifteen (15) counties; and
 Establishments employment size (4-9, 10-19, and 20+)
• Total sample was 1143 establishments.
• 14 different questionnaires were used: Service, Trade, Industrial, Construction,
Health, Education, Air and Sea, Exchange Bureau, Financial Institution, NPISH,
Professional Services, Radio and Television, Transport and Communication.
• GFS and other government data were used to complete the compilation process
such as the Government budget including revenue and expenditure data,
Transportation data, BOP from the Central Bank, external trade data from the
MoC&I and LISGIS, etc.
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2012 NAAS METHODOLOGY
Distribution of counties by regions
Region
Names of Counties
Region # 1
Bomi, Grand Cape Mount
and Gbarpolu
Grand Bassa, Margibi
and Montserrado Rural
Bong, Lofa, and Nimba
Region # 2
Region # 3
Region # 4
Region # 5
Region # 6
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Grand Gedeh, Rivercess,
and Sinoe
Grand Kru, Maryland
and River Gee
Montserrado Urban
Distribution of sample by employment
size
Size
Composition
# of
Establishment
4-9
10%
530
10-19
25%
148
20+
100%
465
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Preliminary Findings from 2012 NAAS
Table 2: Percentage of all units accounted for in NAAS, Liberia Business Register and National Establishment Census 2013
Percentage of
Activity
establishments
Percentage of workers
2010
2011
2010
2011
Activity
A Agriculture, forestry and fishing
0.69
0.67
13.43
14.04
B Mining and quarrying
0.19
0.28
1.70
2.61
Value added
(Percent)
2010
2011
11.12
14.78
10.25
2.01
C
Manufacturing
4.18
4.08
8.36
9.82
8.74
6.48
D
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
0.01
0.01
0.48
0.36
5.59
5.90
E
Water supply; sewerage, waste management, etc.
0.01
0.05
0.23
0.24
0.02
0.03
F
Construction
0.38
0.37
6.08
6.17
8.90
22.39
G
H
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Transportation and storage
29.05
51.73
28.20
52.81
21.15
12.77
19.30
12.26
42.52
3.80
27.61
3.45
I
Accommodation and food service activities
3.04
2.99
4.10
3.97
1.59
1.53
J
Information and communication
1.00
1.01
2.06
1.94
2.87
2.92
K
Financial and insurance activities
0.64
0.65
1.84
1.81
2.71
2.07
L
Real estate activities
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
M
Professional, scientific and technical activities
0.64
0.62
0.60
0.54
0.10
0.12
N
Administrative and support service activities
0.33
0.34
2.27
3.06
0.59
0.84
P
Education
2.74
2.69
12.14
11.40
1.71
1.69
Q
Human health and social work activities
1.17
1.14
5.25
4.95
1.74
1.42
R
Arts, entertainment and recreation
0.52
0.50
0.32
0.29
0.17
0.12
S
Other
service activities
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3.67
3.57
7.20
7.22
2.15
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Total
10
2.04
100.00
Others NA Activities
• Updated the sample frame with the canvass of 15,431
establishments (including unregistered businesses) –
however, it was observed that some establishments were
missed during the Enterprise Census. The Liberia Business
Registry data are also review for inclusion into the frame
• Update was also to produce reliable statistics for the annual years
2010 and 2011.
• Implemented the pilot test for the Household Income and
Expenditure Survey while training is currently ongoing to
beginning the survey early January 2014;
• HIES data collection process is for one (1) year;
• Revise the NSDS Phase II for data improvement.
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Constraints
• Timely funding and logistical constraints.
• Slow response by some enterprises during surveys.
• Refusal of some large enterprises to respond during census and
survey.
• Low coordination among the NSS especially to provide official
statistics that ministries and agencies produce.
• Slow pace in obtaining GFS on time.
• Strengthen LISGIS especially the Statistical Act to be robust.
• LISGIS to fully compile National Accounts data with minimum
international consultant actively driving the process.
• Limited National Accounts staff
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
WAY
FORWARD
Long-term training of National Accountants including periodic
hands-on training for National Accounts Staff:
• Compilation to be fully implemented by LISGIS.
Provision of logistical support.
Improve GFS and other government records compilation.
Using mainly GFS and other government records in the
compilation process.
Strengthen the Statistical Act of LISGIS.
Complete the HIES processes to develop new CPI basket and
also produce reliable GDP using the expenditure approach.
Improve coordination among the NSS especially to provide
timely official statistics that ministries and agencies produce.
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THANK YOU!
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