Transcript Presentation - United Nations Statistics Division

SA’s EXPERIENCE IN THE
COMPILATION OF MINERAL
ACCOUNTS
• Background
• Physical accounts
• Resource rent
• Monetary accounts
• Problems experienced
• Challenges
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Background
• Physical & monetary accounts (1980-2001)
• Gold (39 mine operations)
• Platinum (12 mine operations)
• Coal (62 mine operations)
• Mining industry: R67 301 million to the total
GDP (R983 448) in 2001 (7%)
• Discussion document – July 2002
• Official statistics – September 2004
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Measure of stock = Ecn
proven reserves
451,3 – 456,8
Gold: Physical account for South Africa
Year
Opening
stock
(tons)
Prod
(extrac)
(tons)
Disco
(tons)
Other
volume
change
(tons)
Closing
stock
(subsoil
assets)
(tons)
Volume
sold
(tons)
Net
change
invent
(tons)
Closing
stock
(inc inv)
(tons)
Years
to
deplt
1999
36 328,3
451,3
N/A
-
35 877,0
456,8
-5,5
35 871,5
79
2000
35 877,0
430,9
N/A
-
35 446,1
407,6
23,3
35 469,4
82
2001
35 446,1
394,8
N/A
-
35 051,2
388,0
6,8
35 058,0
89
35 446,1 + 23,3
35 877,0 – 430,9
35 058,0 / 394,8
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Gold: Estimated number of years to depletion for South Africa
100
90
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
Number of years
80
Years to depletion
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Resource Rent
• measure of the scarcity value of extractive resources
as their finite stocks are reduced with extraction
• 1st step in developing monetary accounts
• value of output (@ producer prices) minus production
costs
Nominal profit Average LT nominal interest rate
Minus prevailing interest inflation rate
Equal Rate of return to capital
Multiply fixed capital stock in mining
Equal estimates of nominal profits
Incl cost of II; compensation
of employees; consumption of
fixed capital and nominal rate
on fixed capital investment
(opportunity cost)
• average costs were used to calculate resource rent
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Gold: Resource rent and other calculations for SA at current prices (R million)
1999
Output (sales)
2000
2001
24 990
25 272
29 011
Intermediate consumption
8 387
8 627
8 878
Consumption of employees (total)
9 100
9 809
10 904
Consumption of employees (male)
8 902
9 586
10 674
198
223
229
Consumption of capital
4 370
4 734
5 113
Opportunity cost of capital (SDR
3%)
1 917
2 002
2 087
Opportunity cost of capital (SDR
5%)
3 195
3 337
3 478
Resource Rent (SDR 3%)
1 216
100
2 029
Resource Rent (SDR 5%)
-102
-1 198
638
2 397
318
5 286
-227
-2 779
8 810
Consumption of employees
(female)
Unit rent (R/kg)
Tot(SDR
rent3%)
/ volume
of depletion for
Unit rent (R/kg)
(SDR
5%)
spec
year
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Gold: Output and intermediate consumption: 1980–2001 (R million)
35 000
30 000
R million
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
-
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
Output (sales)
Intermediate consumption
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Monetary accounts
Full environmental accounting used to calculating
monetary accounts for SA.
This represents an attempt to accommodate all
entries of the more comprehensive physical resource
account in the 1993 SNA with monetary values
assigned
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Gold: Monetary account for SA current prices (R million)
Year
Opening stock
Depletion
Reevaluation
Closing stock
1999
28 090
3 441
5 080
36 611
2000
36 611
261
-33 833
3 038
2001
3 038
4 389
55 335
62 762
Unit rent * volume of depletion
Value of opening stock
Less value of the depleted stock
Valued at the change in the present
value
Plus value of new discoveries, additions and
other volume changes
Valued by discounting for one year less
Plus any revaluation due to time passing
Plus nominal holding gain
Calculated as a residual
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Gold: Value of closing stock for SA @ current prices (R mil)
250 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
R million
200 000
Closing stock
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Problems experienced
• Data sources
• Presenting figures in nominal values (Monetary)
• change measuring unit (R) to more stable
currency
• use a GDP deflator
• present values as a ratio to GDP
• Social Discount Rate (SDR)
• Output = sales (data constraints NE SNA)
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Challenges
• International guidelines
• Staff with relevant skills/knowledge/experience
• Educating users
• Data
• Extensive/comprehensive – required
• Regular – trends
• Published figures
• Feeding into policy issues
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Contact details
Anemé Malan
[email protected]
Division: National Accounts
Statistics South Africa
+27 12 310 8321
[email protected]
http://www.statssa.gov.za
9th London Group Meeting
9th London Group Meeting