Transcript PPT 8.4 MB - START - SysTem for Analysis Research and Training

Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu
(Fiji) and Current Climatic Trends
Melchior Mataki
AIACC-SIS09
Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development (PACE-SD)
The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji
Tel: (+679) 321 21 51 ; Fax: (+679) 330 91 76
[email protected]
Purpose of Paper
To characterize the observed behavior of
surface climate at Nadi and Suva
To obtain an impression of on-going climate
trends and their impact on exposure units
Viti Levu (Fiji)
 75% of Fiji population (~800,000),
~210,000 are in the greater Suva
(capital) area
 Economic activities:
 Agriculture-based economy with
heavy reliance on a single crop –
sugar cane. Other main contributors
to GDP are tourism and garmentmanufacture - most of these are
located in Viti levu
 Land mass - 10,388km2
 Dry in leeward (Nadi)
 200cm annual rainfall (ARF)
 Wet on windward east side(Suva)
 300cm to 600cm (ARF)
Climatological Stations
Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Stations
Nadi
Suva
~200km apart
Surface temperature and rainfall data
1961 - 2003
Max & Min temperature (T)
Daily rainfall (RF)
Data Analysis
 Baseline period (1961-1990) T & RF
analysis
 Monthly and Annual climatological means
(normals)
 Time series analysis on seasonal and
annual basis
Results & Discussion
Annual Climatological Normals
Nadi
Suva
Monthly Climatological Normals
T-Anomalies
Nadi
Suva
Max & Min T
RF Anomalies
ENSO is the key factor for
variability in the Pacific climate
system at interannual
timescales.
El Nino and RF
SPCZ and Heavy Rainfall Events in PICs
Equatorial Indian Ocean temperatures
also affect rainfall over the Pacific
• Warmer or colder sea surface temperatures (SST)
affect the Earth's atmospheric circulation pattern
such as to modulate the intensity of rainfall over
most of Tropics.
• A phenomenon known as the Madden Julian
Oscillation (MJO) has been found to affect the
monsoon circulation and the MJO itself is
affected by the variation of the SSTs.
• The MJO can be characterized by a large-scale
eastward movement of air in the upper
troposphere with a period of about 20-70 days,
over the tropical eastern Indian and western
Pacific Oceans at approximately 200 hPa in the
upper troposphere.
Observed Sea level Changes
Concluding Remarks
The Island of Viti levu has a low adaptive
capacity, high sensitivity to external shocks
and high vulnerability to climate change
The inter-seasonal/annual variability in RF
significantly affects the socio-economic
activities on the island
Warming signals are already evident and
there are evidences to suggest that sea level
is rising
Concluding Remarks
Climate variability has significant impacts in
Viti levu (also other islands in the pacific) on
all strata of socio-economic activity.
While climate disasters (cyclones, floods and
droughts) have prime impacts, inter-annual
variability continually affects agricultural
production, water resources, energy and
many other sectors.
Concluding Remarks
Observed signals of climate change and
enhanced climate variability in Viti levu call for
a number of critical actions:
Island/region & sector specific adaptation
strategies based on proven knowledge