Transcript See POWERPOINT PRESENTATION

ՀՀ ԱԶԳԱՅԻՆ ՎԻՃԱԿԱԳՐԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ
NATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF RA
ARMENIAN EXPERIENCE OF THE
DEVELOPING OF COMPLETE SYSTEM
OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS.
Quality of basic data - statistical problems
Stepan MNATSAKANYAN
Artashes SHABOYAN
Joint Eurostat-UNSD Conference on National Accounts in the context of
development cooperation, Luxembourg, 6 to 8 May 2008
1
INSTITUTIONAL AND
ORGANISATIONAL ISSUES
2
NSS is independent from state bodies in its activities.
The supreme body of NSS is the SCS.
The obligation to provide data to NSS is stated in the Law ON STATE
STATISTICS (2000).
TWO STAGE PLANNING:
• Since 2001 National Assembly of RA adopts the Law ON THREE
YEAR STATISTICAL PROGRAM, where main strategic directions of
statistical system in Armenia are taken place.
• The ANNUAL STATISTICAL PROGRAM adopted by SCS is based on
this law and contains full set of indicators to be produced.
The strategic planning helps to avoid problems with data
providers, users as well as state bodies responsible for financing
statistical activities undertaken.
DEVELOPING SNA IN ARMENIA
The Process of changing System of Material Product to
SNA-93 started in 1993 on the basis of 1990 annual data
SERIES BY SNA-93 METHODOLOGY EXIST:
- from 1990 for ANNUAL accounts
- from 1992 for QUARTERLY accounts
ANNUAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS BY:
- SEQUENCE OF ACCOUNTS (UP TO FINANCIAL
ACCOUNT )
- INSTITUTIONAL SECTORS
- INDUSTRIES
- SUBSECTORIAL BREAKDOWN
(public, national private, under foreign control)
3
CURRENT STATUS
ANNUAL and QUATRERLY GDP is calculated and
published:
a. METHODS
- production,
- expenditure,
- income (only for annual data)
b. PRICES
- current prices,
- comparable prices of the previous year,
- base year average prices including seasonal adjustments
c. CLASSIFICATION OF TYPES OF ACTIVITIES
- ОКОНХ (rus) - 1990-2005 data,
- NACE rev 1.1 – since 2005.
GDP by production - A3, A6 & A17 breakdown used in ESA-95.
Metadata are updated quarterly and are available on IMF SDDS website
4
TOOLS FOR DATA COLLECTING
ENTIRE CENSUS Tool
• Population census
• Agricultural census (now in progress)
• Other
PERIODICAL REPORTS Tool
• Organisations and Private Entrepreneurs
• State and local self-government bodies
SAMPLE SURVEY Tool
• Households
• Organisations and Private Entrepreneurs
• State and local self-government bodies
5
MAIN DATA SOURCES FOR
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
6
DIRECT
REPORTS TO NSS
• From ORGANISATIONS and PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURS
• Reports on OUTPUT, INCOMES, EXPENDITURES and LABOUR
• Single SAMPLE SURVEYS focused in different spheres
• Report on economic activity of establishments
• From HOUSEHOLDS
• INTEGRATED LIVING CONDITIONS SURVEYS
• LABOUR FORCE SURVEYS
THROUGH
ADMINISTRATIVE
STATISTICAL
REGISTERS
• CENTRAL BANK – Monetary Statistics
• MINISTRY of FINANCE – GFS
• OTHER REGISTERS
MAIN DATA SOURCES FOR
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS (2)
7
1. DIRECT REPORTS TO NSS
1.
2.
From BUSINESS STATISTICS
•
Selected units ARE OBLIGED to report (accuracy and timeliness)
•
Structuring is done by TYPES of ACTIVITIES (NACE 1.1)
From HOUSEHOLDS
•
2.
•
NO OBLIGATION (most refuses from high income households)
THROUGH ADMINISTRATIVE STATISTICAL REGISTERS
1.
By ANNUAL STATISTICAL PROGRAM
2.
Using ADMINISTRATIVE STATISTICAL QUESTIONNAIRES
DATA FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES ON THE SAME UNIT ARE CROSS
CHECKED
ADMINISTRATIVE STATISTICAL
REGISTERS
8
BUSINESS REGISTER
9
"Order on business (entrepreneurial) register maintenance
in the Republic of Armenia” by the DECISION N 51,
29.05.2001 of STATE COUNCIL ON STATISTICS
GROUPS of
INDICATORS in
BUSINESS
REGISTER
•
•
•
•
DATA
COLLECTION
FOR BUSINESS
REGISTER
• Direct data collection (Questionnaire)
• Indirect data collection
identification indicators
survey indicators
demographic indicators
other indicators
QUALITY CONTROL OF DATA
10
MONITORING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANNUAL
STATISTICAL PROGRAM
INTERNAL PROCEDURES FOR ENSURING QUALITY:
• Ensuring the PROPER METHODOLOGY of indicators—SCS and
Statistical Methodology and Classifications Division;
• BUSINESS STATISTICS — Macroeconomic Indicators and National
Accounts Division and Senior Adviser to the President of NSS;
• MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS —Senior Adviser to the President of
NSS;
• PUBLICATIONS and DISSEMINATION —Vice President and Statistical
Publications and Marketing Division.
ISSUES WITH DATA SOURCES
11
DIFFICUILTIES OF UPDATING BUSINESS REGISTER
• rapid growth of NUMBER of ECONOMIC ENTITIES
• large changes in ECONOMIC INDICATORS of ENTITIES
• SAMPLING used for direct data collection
EXISTENCE OF LARGE INFORMAL ACTIVITIES
• Since 1994 GDP includes estimations on NON-OBSERVED
ECONOMY.
• Sources for NOE estimation: employment data, household surveys,
other special surveys and indirect methods.
ISSUES OF RESPONSIBILITY OF DATA PROVIDERS
DEVELOPING OF COMPLETE SYSTEM OF ADMINISTRATIVE
STATISTICAL REGISTERS