Transcript CURRENT STATE OF EQUITY MARKET IN INDIA

CURRENT SCENARIO OF EQUITY
MARKET IN INDIA
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SIZE/STATISTICS
MAJOR PLAYERS
FACTORS DRIVING EQUITY MARKET
IMPACT OF FII/FDI
CURRENT SCENE
• BSE SENSEX RANGE BOUND AT 16500-17000
LEVELS
• NSE NIFTY AROUND 5100-4900 LEVELS
• NSE + BSE trading summary of FII/DII
• FII PURCHASES FY 0900- Rs.391794 cr
• FII sales FY 0900-Rs.361675 cr
• FII Net Investment FY 0900 Rs.30118 cr
• DII purchases FY 0900 Rs.192516 cr
• DII sales FY 0900 Rs.181613 cr
• DII net investment FY 0900 Rs.10903 cr
RBI POLICY
• CURRENT RBI Policy:
• Repo rate (Bank borrowing from RBI) is at 4.75%, Reverse repo (Bank
placing funds with RBI) at 3.25%, CRR at 5%.
• 2. RBI placed the growth projection for GDP for 2009-10 at 6.0 per cent
with an upward bias.
• Expected that Fiscal and monetary stimulus measures will supplement
domestic demand in 2009-10. On balance, an uptrend in the growth
momentum is unlikely before the middle of 2009-10, the Bank said.
• 3. The Bank projects the WPI inflation for end-March 2010 at around 5.0
per cent higher than the projection of 4.0 per cent made in the Annual
Policy Statement of April 2009.
RBI POLICY
• 4. Monetary Policy Stance: On the basis of the above
overall assessment, the stance of monetary policy of
the RBI for the remaining period of 2009-10 will be to :
• Manage liquidity actively so that the credit demand of
the Government is met while ensuring the flow of
credit to the private sector at viable rates.
• Keep a vigil on the trends and signals of inflation, and
be prepared to respond quickly and effectively through
policy adjustments.
• Maintain a monetary and interest rate regime
consistent with price stability and financial stability
supportive of returning the economy to the high
growth path.
FAVOURABALE FACTORS
• INDICES MOVING UP SHARPLY IN INDIAN
MARKET DURING LAST 6 MONTHS-VALUATION OF
INDIAN MARKETS
• INTRA DAY VOLATILITY
• GROWTH STIMULAI OF VARIOUS COUNTRIES
• WORLD ECONOMY REVIVING-INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION UP
• INTENT TO KEEP STIMULAI ON
• INDIAN GDP EXPECTED AROUND 6%
• DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF INDIAN ECONOMY
CURRENT ECONOMIC SENARIO
• INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP BY 6% IN JULY 2009
IN INDIA (MFG AND MINING)
• AUTO SECTOR ,CEMENT,TELECOM LOOKING UP
• THRUST ON INFRASTRUCTURE
• NREPG HAVING SOME EFFECT IN RURAL AREAS
• ADVANCE TAX FIGURES LOOK ENCOURAGING
• MFS INVESTED TO THE EXTENT OF 90% OF THEIR
FUNDS
• REAL ESTATE LOKING UP IN AFFORDABALE
SEGMENT
CURRENT ECONOMIC SENARIO
• AUTO SECTOR LOOKING UP
• IT INDUSTRY LOOKING UP MARGINALLY
• NO UNFAVOURABLE IMPACT ON IT FROM
ADVANCED COUNTRIES
• UID MAY GIVE A FILLIP TO IT INDUSTRY
• REAL ESTATE COMPANIES LOOKING OUT FOR IPO
• WATCH FOR QUARTERLY RESULTS AND DEMAND
REVIVAL
• TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICIES TO BE
AWAITED
NEW DEVELOPMENTS BY SEBI
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Grading of IPOs made mandatory
Relaxation in case of QIP
Anchor Investors
Relaxation for Government Companies in
Infrastructure Sector
• SEBI introduced (i) mini contracts in equity
indices, (ii) options contracts with longer
life/tenure
NEW DEVELOPMENTS BY SEBI
• Trading hours to be increased
Capitalisation/GDP Ratio
TRENDS IN THE SECONDARY MARKET
Apr 2009-jun 2009
NSE Turnover Jun08-Jul09
Major Indicators of stock marketcomparision-2006 to June 2009
Trends in Derivatives Market at NSE
SENSEX,NIFY,NASDAQ-FY0708
TRENDS IN PRIMARY MARKET
TRENDS IN PRIMARY MARKET
QIP
RESOURCE MOBILISATION BY MF
GAIN IN BSE/NSE INDICES IN JUNE 2009
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT
NET INVESTMENT BY FIIS
FII Investments Trend
FII Investments-debt and equity
Size of the market-NSE
• NSE turnover figures shows a substantial rise
from Rs. 1,805 crore (US $ 574.29 million) in the
year 1994-95 to Rs. 2,752,023 crore (US $
540,141.59 million) in 2008-09.
• The average daily trading volume increased from
Rs. 17 crore during 1994-95 to Rs. 11,325 crore
(US $ 2,223 million) during 2008-09.
• During 2008-09 the volumes decreased by 22.50
% to Rs. 2,752,023 crore (US $ 540,142 million)
from Rs. 3,551,038 crore (US $ 888,426 million)
during 2007-08.
NSE Trading Size Graph
NSE-Cash Market
• The total market capitalisation under CM
segment increased from Rs. 363,350 crore (US
$ 115,606 million) as at end March 1995 to Rs.
2,896,194 crore (US $ 568,439 million) as at
end March 2009.
• Decrease in Market capitalization of 40.38 %
during 2008-09 as compared to the market
capitalization of Rs.4,858,122 crore (US $
1,215,442 million) in 2007-08.
NSE INDICES FY 2008-09
Derivative/CM turnover
Derivative/CM turnover
• The total turnover in the derivative segments
surpassed the combined turnover in the cash
segment of both BSE and NSE since early
2004.
• During 2007-08, the turnover of derivatives
market was higher by 259.9 per cent of the
combined cash market turnover of BSE and
NSE
MF/FII Investment trend
FY 07-08
Secondary Market turnover
Stock Exchange Turnover
NIFTY 07-08