Transcript Demography Brazil

Demography Brazil
&
Comparison Case study – HIV
Botswana & Brazil
Population facts
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2000 – pop 169mn 2020 estimate 211mn.
6th most populous country in the world.
1996 – Contained 2.7% world’s pop.
1950s growth rate was 3% due to falling DR &
high BR. Today only 1.5%
1980-90 % of 0-14yrs fell from 38% to 34%
70% of the population is under 30yrs (Transition
Trap)
In the same period the % of elderly rose 4 –
4.2%
More facts
Average fertility 2 children (2000).
Estimate for 2021 – 1.8, which is below
replacement levels.
 Life expectancy 1940 – 42yrs, 1970 –
52yrs, Today 71yrs.
 BR 1960 42/1000
Today 16/1000
 High infant mortality rate 30/1000
which is due to poor prenatal care, poor
family planning & high number of
abortions.
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Why did changes start to take place after
1950s?
Transition Trap (Found early Stage 3)
D.T.M – Stage 3
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Brazil reached Stage 3 between 1960-7.
At this stage BR should begin to decrease rapidly.
DR – Slow decrease.
Natural increase – slow increase.
Longevity increase & infant mortality should
decrease, but the latter hasn’t happened in
Brazil.
Education, sanitation, health, housing & food
should improve. These haven’t all happened in
Brazil.
Health Facts
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Spending on health 7.4% GDP. This is not enough
and is unevenly spread as cities receive more
spending and a lot of money goes to
sophisticated treatments for the rich.
80% of people who require treatment in hospital
are ill as a result of poor sanitation & a lack of
clean water. A quarter of the population doesn't’
have access to clean water.
13% of under 5s are malnourished, the NE being
the worst area.
Infectious tropical diseases reflect poor sanitary
conditions.
Poor antenatal care for women – high infant
mortality.
HIV: Brazil & Botswana
Brazil
Botswana
Population
0-14 =25%
15-64 =68%
65+ = 6%
0-14 = 38%
15-64 = 58%
65+ = 3.8%
BR
16
23
DR
6
29
Life expectancy
71yrs
33yrs
Fertility Rate
1.9
2.7
Pop growth rate
1.04%
-0.04%
HIV rate
0.7%
37.3%
Literacy
86%
79%
GDP growth rate
2.4%
4.5%
GDP per capita PPP
$8,400
$10,500
Industry
Agri -8%
Industry – 40%
Services – 66%
Agri – 2.4%
Indust – 4.6%
Services – 50%
Debt
$188bn
$519mn
Economy - Botswana
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In Botswana has maintained one of the world's highest
economic growth rates since independence in 1966.
Through fiscal discipline and sound management, Botswana
has transformed itself from one of the poorest countries in
the world to a middle-income country with a per capita GDP
of $10,000 in 2005. Two major investment services rank
Botswana as the best credit risk in Africa. Diamond mining
has fuelled much of the expansion and currently accounts
for more than one-third of GDP and for 70-80% of export
earnings. Tourism, financial services, subsistence farming,
and cattle raising are other key sectors. HIV/AIDS infection
rates are the second highest in the world and threaten
Botswana's impressive economic gains.
Almost 39 million people around the world are living with HIV –
slightly more than the population of Poland. Nearly two-thirds of
them live in Sub-Saharan Africa. The global HIV/Aids epidemic killed
2.8 million people in 2005.
Botswana faces ‘extinction’ if the efforts
to control are not effective
The countries hit hardest by Aids, Zimbabwe and Botswana,
have seen life-expectancy drop by nearly half in 15 years,
when it should have been rising. Children born in 2000 in
Botswana, where nearly 39% of the population are HIV
positive, will live, on average, to just 39.
The light bars show how Botswana’s population structure is
expected to look in 2020, taking the country's HIV epidemic into
account. The dark bars show how it would otherwise look. The
loss of a huge swathe of work-age adults will hit families and the
economy alike.
At least 15 million children worldwide have lost one or both parents
to Aids – most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. The total is expected
to be close to 25 million by 2010. Many orphans alive today will
themselves die of Aids. Many of those who survive will have to care
for younger siblings.
At least half the economies in sub-Saharan Africa have shrunk
because of HIV. As workers die, their skills and knowledge are
lost. Productivity drops while welfare costs for the sick and
orphaned spiral. The proportion of the workforces of South Africa
and Mozambique lost to Aids is expected to more than double
between 2005 and 2020.
Why has Brazil been so successful?
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But Brazil's HIV prevalence rate is 0.7%
Brazil developed an internationally renowned Aids programme,
which today provides free treatment to about 125,000 people,
more than any other country in the developing world. A further
300,000 people are constantly having their HIV levels monitored.
According to UNAids, one third of people with HIV in developing
countries who receive satisfactory treatment live in Brazil.
The number of deaths from the disease has dropped by 80% in
recent years in Brazil. The government thinks that is a significant
achievement, considering that the World Bank predicted in 1992,
that, by 2002, 1.2 million Brazilians would be HIV positive.
For UNAids, the success of the Brazilian programme is due to
investment in prevention campaigns (among young people and
sex professionals, in particular); the production of generic
antiretroviral drugs and also the mobilisation of civilians in
pressuring the government to adopt new policies, as well as
working with the public sector.
Managment
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Recent research showed that about 900 NGOs work with the Aids
programme in Brazil. The NGOs also work in the favelas, or slums,
teaching mainly youngsters how to use a condom and also promoting
events like plays where the children act as "information spreaders" - using
the plays to teach the other children in their community.
Prevention campaigns are mainly produced by the government, using TV,
newspapers, radios and the local community centres (as local public
clinics) to spread the message.
A villa outside Sao Paulo has been turned into a set for a pornographic
movie by the Brazilian company, Sexxxy videos. But the company is also
the latest recruit in the fight against Aids. These films, condoms are
standard props. The company is also shooting a special message about
Aids to put at the start of each of its videos - something that the Brazilian
congress will soon make compulsory for all adult movies.
Brazil says it plans to distribute a billion free condoms next year as part of
its fight against HIV and Aids. The country's Health Minister, Saraiva
Felipe, said the programme would be helped by the construction of a
state-run condom factory.
How is Brazil helping Botswana?
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Brazilian journalists also produce a TV
programme in Botswana with
documentaries and live discussions on the
subject, and the country has also
announced that it will set up a factory in
Mozambique to produce cheaper antiretroviral drugs.