Transcript SARS OUTBREAK

THE SEVERE ACCUTE RESPIRATORY
SYNDROME (SARS) EPIDEMIC
An Exercise to Estimate its Economic Impact
By J. Roberto Jovel
What is SARS?
The Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome (SARS) is a disease of
the respiratory system that began
in China at the end of 2002 and that
expanded very rapidly in Asia,
North America and Europe in the
first half of 2003
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Symptoms of the Disease
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The Symptoms of SARS
•
•
•
•
•
•
High fever, 39 Degrees Celsius or more
Body chills
Headache
General body pains
Generalized disconfort
A dry cough may occur after 2 to 7 days,
that may result in less oxigen carried by the
blood
• Assisted mechanical breathing is required
in 10 to 20 per cent of patients
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The Action of SARS
Atypical pneumonia
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Effects of SARS on Health
Unusually high death rates
• Above 43 per cent for the elderly (over 60
years )
• 13 per cent for patients below 60
No known effective medical treatment available
at the outset of epidemic
Panic among local population and among
international community led to suspension of
activities and travel to/from infected areas and
countries
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The Origin of SARS
Scientists have found that SARS
is caused by an up-to-now
unknown Corona Virus
The Corona Virus shows a halo
when examined under a
microscope
In the past, the Corona Virus had
been associated to respiratory
disease in men, and to gastrointestinal, liver and
neurological disease of some
animal species.
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Propagation of Outbreak
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How is SARS Transmitted
• The main form of
transmission is by
direct contact with
infected persons
• The majority of cases
have occurred from
direct contact with
infected patients and
from manipulating
infected material
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How SARS is Transmitted..
Other forms of transmission
• Touching an infected person
• Touching objects that have
been contaminated by infected
sneeze droplets from SARS
patients, and subsequently
touching ones eyes, nose or
mouth
• SARS might also be
transmitted through
contaminated domestic
sewage systems in large
housing buildings
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Actions Undertaken
Treatment of Patients
Prevention of Transmission
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Medical Treatment
• The incubation period of
SARS is normally from 2
to 7 days, although it may
be extended to 10 days
• The same treatment as
for typical pneumonia is
recommended
• Anti-Virus agents such as
Oseltamir and Ribavirine,
together with steroids,
have also been used
• Other medications have
been tested
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Isolation of Patients
• Infected patients are
isolated to avoid
transmission
• Persons suspected of
being infected are
placed under
quarantine as well
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Preventive Measures
• Use of face masks
• Disinfection
• Measures while traveling
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Special Campaigns
• “Do not spit” campaign in China
• Prevention campaigns in suburban areas
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The Effects of SARS
On the Population
On the Social Sectors
On the Economic Sectors
World Spread of SARS
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
NOV
DIC
ENE
FEB
17-Mar
3 APR
Total Number of Cases
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10-Abr
16-Abr
Deaths
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03-May
16-May
24-May
24-Jun
Recovered patients
17
Number of Cases in Selected
countries
9000
8000
Number of Cases
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
NOV
DEC
Hong Kong
Europe
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JAN
FEB
China
Canada
17-Mar
3 APR
Singapore
USA
10-Abr
Viet Nam
Others
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16-Abr
03-May
Thailand
16-May
24-May
24-Jun
Taiwan
18
Effects on the Population
Data through 24 June
2003:
– Total number of cases
: 8458
– Deaths: 807
WHO declared that the
outbreak was controlled
in the entire world on
5 July 2003
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Effects on the Economy
Drop in Tourists´ arrivals
Drop in Trade Sales
Decrease in Transport Revenues
Decrease in the production of goods and
services
Reduction in overall economic growth
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The Case of Singapore
Effects of the SARS Epidemic on the Economy
Singapore, in South Asia
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Singapore Stats
Population: 4.0 million
Per Capita Income:
US$ 22,750 per year
Surface Area:
1,746,000 Sq. Km.
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Gross Domestic Product in 2002
Million
S$
GDP at Current Market Prices
Good Producing Sectors
Manufacturing
Construction
Utilities
Other Sectors
Service Producing Sectors
Trade
Hotels and Restaurants
Transport and Communications
Financial Services
Services to Businesses
Other Sectors
Owner-Occupied Dwellings
Measured Services of Financial Intermediation
Production Taxes
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Per Cent
155,727
100
52,509
41,204
8,376
2,763
166
98,093
19,884
3,472
17,944
17,450
20,689
18,654
5,642
(9,731)
9,214
34
26
5
2
...
63
13
2
12
11
13
12
4
(6)
6
24
Performance of GDP 1998-2002
160000
16
14
155000
10
150000
8
145000
6
4
140000
2
135000
0
Annual Growth Rate, in%
Million Singapore Dollars
12
-2
130000
-4
125000
-6
1998
1999
2000
GDP at Current Market Prices
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2001
2002
Annual Growth Rate
25
Incidence of SARS in Singapore
250
206
200
150
100
32
50
0
01/02/2003 15/02/2003 01/03/2003 15/03/2003 29/03/2003 12/04/2003 26/04/2003 10/05/2003 24/05/2003 07/06/2003 21/06/2003
Number of Cases
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Deaths
26
Effects on the Tourism
Sector
Substantial drop in the
arrival of tourists and
businessmen
Hotel occupancy and
sales in restaurants
fell accordingly
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The Effect on Tourism Arrival
800
Monthly Tourist Arrivals, Thousands
700
685
697
Average
monthly
rate: 630,000
arrivals630,000
Promedio
mensual
anticipado:
600
570
580
590
600
620
500
430
400
400
300
250
245.7
200
190
100
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Actual
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Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Projected
28
Effect on Passenger Air
Transport
The number of international
passengers dropped
significantly since March
Airplane seat occupancy
rates fell accordingly
In May, Singapore Airlines
reduced its number of
flights by 40 per cent
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Time Variation of Passenger Air
Transport Revenue
120
106.5
% of Normal Monthly Sales
100
Ingreso mensual estimado
103
90
80
92
93.5
95
97
78
63.3
60
60
55
50
40
20
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Actual
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Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Projections
30
Effects on Retail Trade
Due to absence of
tourists and local
clients under forced
or voluntary
quarantine, retail
trade sales decreased
significantly
Gross sales dropped
down to 50% in April
and to 40% in May
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Effect on Retail Trade Sales
120
107.7
% of Normal Monthly Sales
100
Ventas mensuales de base
103.4
88
90
90
94
96
80
71
63.5
60
50
40
42
40
20
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Actual
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Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Decx
Projections
32
The Exercise to be Undertaken
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Effect on Selected Sectors
Sectors:
• Tourism (Hotels and Restaurants)
• Passenger Air Transport
• Retail Trade
To estimate losses of gross sales or revenues due
to the SARS outbreak
Use as baseline the expected performance for the
year (before the outbreak), and the real data and
projections for sector performance (after SARS
occurred)
Losses must be expressed in monetary terms (I.e.
Singapore Dollars or US Dollars)
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Effect on Over All Economic
Performance
Obtain total losses sustained by country, by
adding individual sector losses
Estimate economic performance of Singapore
had not SARS occurred, by:
• Estimating value added of losses sustained by
each sector
• Adding those figures to the real GDP figure
achieved by Singapore in 2003
• Estimate economic growth rate that would have
been achieved by Singapore had the SARS
outbreak not occurred, by comparing to GDP in
2002
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Organization for Exercise
Inter-Disciplinary Study Groups (4-6 persons)
Time Schedule:
• Distribution of exercise document and
explanation (pm, 24 June)
• Study Group work and consultations with
Consultant (24-25 June)
• Presentation of Study Group results (pm, 25
June)
• Analysis of results by Consultant (pm, 25 June)
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[email protected]
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