Transcript Agriculture Sector Performance in Southern Africa

Agriculture Sector Performance in
Southern Africa
By Pius Chilonda
Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA
ReSAKSS Africa -Wide Conference on Agriculture:
Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African
Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy
UNECA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
23-24 November 2009
Outline of Presentation
• Introduction
• Role of agriculture and recent trends
in the context of SADC
RISDP/CAADP/MDG
• Concluding remarks
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
ReSAKSS-SA
• As part of the ReSAKSS network, ReSAKSS-SA is
supporting CAADP and SADC Regional Indicative
Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) by providing
analysis and knowledge support for agricultural
development, planning and policy for accelerated growth
and poverty reduction
• Monitoring of agricultural sector performance as
expressed in CAADP, SADC RISDP, MDG 1 targets is
one of our key activities
• Aim is to provide evidence about role and importance of
agriculture based on regionally shared goals; therefore
build a case for increased investment in the sector
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Monitoring CAADP and SADC
RISDP targets
•
A comprehensive M&E framework has been developed
by RESAKSS and informs our work
• CAADP
– 6% growth in agricultural GDP
– 10% budget allocation to agriculture (Maputo
declaration)
• SADC RISDP – 11 indicators to ensure food security
• MDG 1 – hunger and poverty
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Main SADC RISDP Agricultural
Performance targets
1.
Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year and halving the
proportion of the population living on less than US$1 per day
between 1990 and 2015
2.
Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% as a
percentage of the total by 2015
3.
Increasing fertilizer consumption from 44.6 kilograms per hectare
((kg/ha) of arable land to 65 kg/ha of arable land by 2015 (world
average is 98.8 kg/ha)
4.
Increasing cereal yield in kg/ha hectare from an average of 1,392
to 2,000 (world average) by 2015
5.
Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies such as
improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by
2015
6.
Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annually
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
The role of agriculture and recent
trends in the context of SADC
RISDP, CAADP and MDG1
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Human population is still largely rural based
Source: World
Bank
(2009)
Strategic Analysis
and
Knowledge
Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture still employs more people than nonagricultural sectors
Source: FAOSTAT (2009)
Note: Estimated and Projected -2008-)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
% agric. GDP
Agriculture is most important in 7 low income
countries out of 15 SADC countries (2008)
Low income
Upper middle
income
Lower middle
income
Source: World
Bank
(2009)
Strategic Analysis
and
Knowledge
Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
% GDP growth rate
SADC wide GDP growth rates impressive since
2003, but yet to reach SADC RISDP target
SADC RISDP target (7% GDP growth)
Source: World
Bank
(2009)
Strategic Analysis
and
Knowledge
Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
… strong GDP growth yet to translate into
poverty reduction and improved welfare……
Source: SADC
(2008)
Strategic Analysis
and
Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture needs to contribute to more economic
growth in order to contribute to poverty reduction
Source: World
Bank
(2009)
Strategic Analysis
and
Knowledge
Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Along with SSA, the SADC region has low
agricultural value added per worker
Source: World
Bank
(2009)
Strategic Analysis
and
Knowledge
Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Progress towards the 6% agriculture
GDP CAADP growth target
CAADP ag GDP target (6%)
Source: FAOSTAT (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Average cereal yield still to reach
2000kg/ha SADC RISDP target
SADC RISDP target 2000kg/ha by 2015
Source: FAOSTAT (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Maize productivity relatively flat
Source: FAOSTAT
(2008)
Strategic Analysis
and Knowledge
Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Livestock production against SADC RISDP
target of at least 4% growth per annum
12
Annual growth (%)
10
8
6
4% growth
in livestock
production
4
2
0
1990-2000
2000-03
2003-05
SADC
Namibia
Congo, DR
Malawi
Tanzania
Botswana
Madagascar
Mozambique
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Zambia
Seychelles
Mauritius
Swaziland
South Africa
-4
Angola
-2
2004-05
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Net importer of livestock products
in value terms
Source: FAOSTAT (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Fertilizer consumption yet to achieve
SADC RISDP target of 65kg/ha
SADC RISDP target 65kg/ha by 2015
Source: SADC (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Progress towards the SADC RISDP
target of 7% of area under irrigation
SADC RISDP target 7% area under irrigation
by 2015
Source: SADC (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Progress towards 10% share of
agriculture in public investments
10% Maputo declaration
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Percentage of agriculture budgets
in national budgets- Malawi
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Sub-sector contribution in total
agriculture spending - Malawi
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Composition of Agricultural Spending:
The Case of Zambia
Example of Zambia’s 2005 Budget
Source:
ReSAKSS-SA,
(Zambia), MSU
(Zambia)System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Strategic
Analysis
andMACO
Knowledge
Support
Concluding remarks
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Conclusion
• There is varying progress in agricultural sector
performance, with most targets yet to be met
• Challenges still exist:
– stabilizing and enhancing agricultural growth rates
– increasing budget allocations to the sector and
identification of policy and investment options
– Increasing agricultural productivity, especially
narrowing the yield gaps
– Enhancing market access, while taking advantage of
regional integration efforts
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)