Transcript Presentation by Johannes Bollen, the Netherlands

Johannes Bollen
Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)
TFIAM
Local Air Pollution
and
Global Climate Change
A Cost-Benefit Analysis
by
Bollen, J., Brink, C., Eerens, H., and van der
Zwaan, B.
Dutch share of expenditures
on LAP and GCC may shift dramatically
2000
1.9
75%
25%
Current
Legislation
2020
6.7
60%
40%
Total (bn €'s)
LAP
GCC
calculations based on:
1]RAINS/Milieubalans(MNP,2005)
2] 2% growth yr-1 of GDP
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
Maximum
Feasible
Reductions
2020
12.8
45%
55%
Results CBA on LAP & GCC
• Discounted LAP benefits significantly exceed those
of GCC
• LAP policies alone lead to modest CO2 emission
reductions, but magnify when combined with GCC
policies
• LAP expenditures in EU decline from GCC policy
expenditures
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
MERGE model (Manne&Richels) + LAP
• Top-down economy + bottom-up energy
• Intertemporal maximization of discounted utility
– Abatement "where", "when“, and "what" flexibility
• 9 regions, Pareto-efficient solutions for 2010-2150
• Market and much larger non-market damages
(human health, biodiversity)
+ LAP:
Restrict to primary energy related particulate matter +
precautionary assumption
– 6% attributive risk of premature deaths from long-term
exposure
– Value of Statistical Life at Median values (1 million euro)
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
Discounted LAP benefits significantly larger
than GCC benefits (ratio >> 1!!!!)
% change of discounted consumption
Baseline: Premature Deaths to PM2.5 = 108 million over 2000-2150 period
Temperature in 2150 = 4.8 0Celsius compared pre-industrial level
2.0
1.5
93 million PM death
3.3 0Celsius
8 million PM death
4.7 0Celsius
8 million PM death
3.0 0Celsius
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
GCC
LAP
GCC
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
LAP
GCC+LAP
Costs
% of Discounted Consumption
8
9
8
12
8
8
10
7
8
7
8
8
higher urbanization
in developing countries
lower elasticity
emission-concentration
lower climate
sensitivity
higher climate
sensitivity
lower Value of
Statistical Life
higher Value of
Statistical Life
Presriptive
discounting
Value of staistical life in
purchasing power parity
higher Climate Change
damage valuation
lower Climate Change
damage valuation
-1
higher PM emissions
in developing countries
2
base
Are we certain??? Yes, ratio between
LAP and GCC benefits fallls in the range of 2-31
Benefits GCC
3.0
ratio
benefits
5
3.1
3.0
6
7
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
Benefits LAP
Costs
4
3.1
2.3
4.1
3.0
3.0
2.4
3.1
2.8
4
21
2
3
12
4
31
2
3.3
0
Global
Temperature
Change
(Celsius)
14
Premature
Deaths
in 2000-2150
(millions)
Co-benefits from LAP to GCC magnify when
implementing climate policies (synergy!!!)
CO2 emissions in 2050
1.5
2.4
Western Europe
China
1.6
0.5
0.8
0.0
0.0
LAP GCC+LAP
Pg C
1.0
2000
base
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
GCC
2000
base
GCC
gas
oil
coal
LAP GCC+LAP
1.2
2.7
0.8
2.2
Western Europe
0.4
1.7
0.0
2000
2010
CO2 Emissions:
End-of-pipe abatement costs:
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
2020
2030
2040
1.2
2050
LAP
GCC+LAP
LAP (right)
GCC+LAP (right)
LAP Expenditures
(bn 2000 US$)
CO2 in Gt C
LAP expenditures in EU decline
from GCC policies
Results CBA on LAP & GCC
• Discounted LAP benefits = 2-31 * GCC benefits
• LAP policies alone lead to modest CO2 emission
reductions, but magnify when combined with GCC
policies
• LAP expenditures in EU decline from GCC policies
• Caveat: this analysis restricts to primary PM
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
Preliminary Policy conclusions
• No delay with GCC policies, but
• integrate them into LAP strategies (it is the robust
option)
• Increase research to reduce uncertainty of GCC
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
Further and related work
• This work:
– Paper will be finalized by mid-June
• Further work:
– extend LAP to include
1] Secondary aerosols (and increase the PM concentrations)
2] SO2, NOx, and NH3 emissions and abatement cost curves
• Related work:
– on MNP web-site entitled “Sustainable energy: trade-offs
and synergies between energy security, competitiveness,
and environment”
LAP = Local Air Pollution
GCC = Global Climate Change
CBA = Cost Benefit Analysis