Transcript Main Title - United Nations Economic and Social Commission for

Assessment of
National Accounts Practices
in
ESCWA Region
Majed Skaini, UN-ESCWA
Expert Group Meeting on National Accounts
Cairo, 12-14 May 2009
Questionnaire
• A questionnaire on “Sources and methodologies
followed in compiling National Accounts Statistics
in Western Asia countries” was sent to all ESCWA
countries in the end of March 2009;
• The questionnaire covered the following topics:
- General Questions on implementation status,
classifications, and National Accounts Compilation;
- Understanding of NA concepts and definitions;
- Sources of data and methods of estimation;
- Coverage of production and asset boundaries;
- Compilation of institutional sector accounts;
- Other related issues.
Objective of Questionnaire
• The responses to the questionnaire constitute the
cornerstone for the overall assessment of the
regional status of National Accounts compilation in
ESCWA region;
• The assessment will form the basic input for a
regional booklet on sources and methods of
compiling National Accounts in the ESCWA region;
• The assessment will shape the implementation
strategy plan of the ESCWA region.
Responses
• 13/14 countries responded to the questionnaire;
• Some questionnaires were partially answered;
• Most of the countries did not provide sufficient info
on sources and methods used in production-side,
expenditure-side and income side estimation;
• Some responses need to be clarified and
validated;
• Missing responses and vague ones will be
discussed in this meeting.
General status of SNA
implementation in the ESCWA region
SNA followed
• There are differences between the ESCWA
member countries in terms of application of
many of the recommendations, definitions,
concepts and calculations recommended by
the System of National Accounts 1993
• 7/13 reported that they already are following
SNA 1993
1968 SNA, but in the process of
adopting 1993 SNA
Saudi, Syria, UAE, Sudan, Iraq, Jordan
1993 SNA
Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Qatar,
Bahrain, Palestine, Oman
ISIC and CPC
• Most of ESCWA countries (8/13)* are following
ISIC Rev 3.1, and almost half (6/13)* are
following CPC Ver. 1.1
• Industrial Classification followed:
ISIC Rev.2
ISIC Rev. 3
ISIC Rev. 3.1
ISIC Rev 4
Other
Jordan*
Sudan, Syria*,
Jordan*, Yemen
Qatar, Oman, Iraq, Saudi, Syria*, UAE,
Bahrain, Egypt
Palestine
Lebanon
• Product Classification followed:
CPC Ver. 1
CPC Ver. 1.1
Jordan*, UAE, Qatar
Bahrain, Jordan*, Saudi, Oman, Egypt,
Yemen
CPC Ver. 2
Other
Lebanon, Palestine
COICOP and COFOG
• Only Lebanon and Qatar are not using
Classification of Individual Consumption by
Purpose (COICOP) to classify consumption;
• Lebanon, Palestine, Qatar and UAE are not
using Classification of Functions of
Government (COFOG) to classify
government transactions.
Assessment in terms of …
Concepts,
definitions and
methodology used
On Production…
• Theoretically, all the countries agree on the
concept of production, but the practical
application of the concept of production often
varies from:
- one activity to another,
- one sector to another, and
- one country to another.
• The main reason might be attributed to
deficiencies in the available data and difficulties
in measurement or accessibility
Barriers and variation
• In many ESCWA countries, social values and
perceptions stand as barriers to the inclusion of
illegal activities within the production boundary, and
hence do not estimate the production of these illegal
activities as they do not admit its existence
• Informal or statistically non-covered activities face
many constraints in its calculation and inclusion
within the production boundary
• Countries differ in the valuation of expenditure on
research and development and its treatment
whether it is undertaken under own-account or
outsourced by specialized research units
Barriers and variation (cont)
• Military expenditure presents a major weak point in the
estimation of government expenditure and therefore of
output and final consumption expenditure in most of
ESCWA countries
• It appears that ESCWA member states that are still in the
process of adopting SNA’93 are focusing on the concept
of production and output and its components from the
expenditure side, whereas countries that already started
application and dissemination of data as per SNA’93 are
trying to commit to the recommended concepts and
definitions as much as possible, but still are facing many
problems which they are addressing as a priority for
improving their status of implementation of the NA system
On Institutional sectors…
• 7/12 (excl. Yemen) of the countries reported that the
household sector includes unincorporated
businesses, while only Bahrain and Oman compile
separate estimates of mixed income for
unincorporated enterprises
• Only Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Qatar distinguish
quasi-corporate bodies from other household sector
units
• None of the 13 countries treats the ‘Issue Department
of Central Bank’ as producer of government services
On Household sector…
Yes
No
Does the household sector include
unincorporated businesses?
Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Oman,
Saudi, UAE
Lebanon, Palestine, Qatar,
Sudan, Syria
Are there any production activities
reported under Household sector
other than “Ownership of dwelling”
and “Activities of private
households as employers and
undifferentiated production
activities of private households”?
Bahrain, Egypt, Qatar, Yemen
Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman,
Palestine, Saudi, Sudan, Syria
Only Qatar reported that it includes some agriculture,
transportation and construction activities under the
household sector, other than ‘Ownership of dwelling’
or ‘private household employment’.
On FISIM…
•
5/13* of ESCWA countries have started to address
the financial intermediation services indirectly
measured according to the recommendations of
the SNA’93, by allocating it to the users of these
services as intermediate consumption to industries
and as final consumption to final users, whereas
the remaining countries are still dealing with FISIM
on an aggregate basis as a notional industry;
Countries where financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) are allocated
to the users of these services (as IC and FC)
Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan
On CFC…
•
ESCWA countries differ in the approach used to
estimate the Consumption of Fixed Capital;
•
Most of the countries estimate CFC based on
data on reported depreciation;
•
Only Bahrain, Jordan and Oman follow
Perpetual Inventory Method in estimating CFC.
The approach followed for estimating consumption of fixed capital (CFC)
PIM
Bahrain, Jordan, Oman
Based on data on reported depreciation
Egypt, Iraq, Palestine, Saudi, Sudan, Syria, UAE
Other method
Lebanon, Qatar, Yemen
Compilation of GDP aggregates (1)
• All 13 ESCWA countries compile GVA by type of economic
activity at both current and constant prices;
• Whereas all 13* compile GDP main expenditure
aggregates at current prices, only Iraq, Jordan and Yemen
do not compile it at constant prices;
• Whereas all 13* compile GDP main income aggregates at
current prices, only Bahrain, Oman and Palestine compile it
at constant prices**;
• Only Lebanon and Syria do not compile current price
expenditure at the disaggregated level of NPISHs;
• Only Egypt and Syria do not do valuation of output and value
added at basic prices.
* Egypt and UAE did not reply
** Qatar and Syria compile GNI only
Compilation of GDP aggregates (2)
GDP aggregates that are compiled at present
Aggregates
Yes
At Current
Prices
At Constant
Prices
Gross value added by type of economic activity
13
12
Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE)
13
8
of which Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE)
11
6
of which Final Consumption Expenditure of NPISHs
11
6
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
13
8
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
13
8
Change in Inventory
13
8
Gross National Income
13
5
Gross National Disposable Income
13
3
Gross Saving
13
3
Assessment in terms of …
Coverage
On Production Boundary…
• Whereas only 3 countries reported that they
do not include ‘non-market agricultural crops’
under their production boundary, 6 countries
in the region do not include ‘other household
production for own final use’;
Included in
Production Boundary
Not included in
Production Boundary
Non-market agricultural crops
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon,
Oman, Saudi, Syria, UAE, Yemen
Bahrain, Palestine, Qatar
Other household production for
own final use
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon,
Oman, UAE, Yemen
Bahrain, Palestine, Qatar,
Saudi, Sudan, Syria
Partly
included
Sudan
Informal Production…
• Results of the questionnaire show that there are
problems in establishing production coverage
especially in the scope of unregistered businesses,
informal sector activities or illegal activities. Most
countries are posting these issues at the center of
attention as a priority;
• Only 5 countries reported that their production
boundary covers informal activities and hence
include informal production;
Included in
Production Boundary
Informal production
Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon,
Oman, UAE
Not included in
Production Boundary
Partly
included
Bahrain, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi,
Sudan, Syria
Jordan, Yemen
Own account servicing…
• 3/13 ESCWA countries do not include ‘services of
owner-occupied dwellings’ under their production
boundary;
• Only 6 countries include ‘domestic services produced by
employed staff’ under their production boundary;
• 7 countries include ‘own-account fixed capital formation’
within production coverage;
Included in
Production Boundary
Not included in
Production Boundary
Own-account production of housing
services by owner-occupiers
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi, Syria, UAE, Yemen
Bahrain, Palestine, Sudan
Production of domestic and personal
services by employing paid domestic
staff for own use*/**
Egypt, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Saudi,
UAE
Bahrain, Lebanon,
Palestine, Sudan, Syria
Own-account fixed capital
formation**
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman,
Saudi, UAE
Bahrain, Palestine, Qatar,
Sudan
* Jordan did not answer
** Yemen did not answer
Partly
included
Syria
On Asset Boundary…
• Many of the region’s countries estimate the value of gross
fixed capital formation as an aggregate without
disaggregating at the level of asset industrial type
(Buildings/ machinery/ ...... etc.) or engaging in the
classification at the level of economic activity or
beneficiary sector;
• 8 countries include expenditures on mineral exploration
under capital formation, whereas only 3 countries treat
expenditure on R&D as capital formation;
Included under
Capital Formation
Not included under
Capital Formation
Expenditures on mineral exploration
Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar,
UAE, Syria, Egypt, Saudi
Sudan, Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen,
Jordan
Expenditure on research & development
activity – both for market and own use
UAE, Egypt, Saudi
Oman, Iraq, Sudan, Palestine,
Bahrain, Qatar, Syria, Lebanon,
Yemen, Jordan
Own-account fixed capital formation
Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar,
UAE, Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi
Sudan, Palestine, Syria, Yemen,
Jordan
Justifications!
• Why are some activities not covered?
• What is needed to ensure coverage of
these activities?
• What is needed to get estimates and
compile statistics for these activities?
• How much time is needed?
Assessment in terms of …
Sequencing of
Accounts
Inquiry on Compilation status…
• All 13 ESCWA countries were requested to fill in
the following table, specifying which of the
following institutional sector accounts are being
compiled at present. Responses confirming
compilation out of 13 countries were as such:
Yes
Accounts
Whole
Economy
Financial
Corporations
Nonfinancial
Corporations
Production account
11
10
10
Generation of income account
10
8
Allocation of primary income account
9
Secondary distribution of income account
Households
NPISH
11
10
10
8
9
8
7
8
8
9
7
7
9
8
7
9
7
7
Use of disposable income account
9
8
7
9
7
7
Capital account
9
8
7
9
7
7
External transactions of Goods & Services
General
Government
Rest of
the
World
8
7
7
Institutional Sector Accounts…
• Sudan, Syria and UAE do not compile a sequence
of accounts for any of the institutional sectors;
• Palestine compiles a full sequence of accounts for
whole economy only while Bahrain compiles for
Financial Corporations and General Government;
• Lebanon compiles a full sequence of accounts for
whole economy, General Government and ROW;
• All the rest (7/13 countries) compile full sequence
of accounts for all institutional sectors, except for
Qatar which does not compile for ROW.
Assessment in terms of …
General
Challenges
and
Drawbacks
On transactions…
• Problems in estimating gross and net values due to
the lack of reliable estimates of the consumption of
fixed assets;
• The estimation of some transactions as residuals as
is the case with treating ‘Change in inventory’ in most
of the countries; (Worth mentioning that 6/13 countries
reported that they do attempt to balance GDP estimates from
demand, supply and income sides; how is it done?)
• The estimation of GFCF as an aggregate without
trying to estimate its components at the lower level.
• Non separation of NPISH as a separate sector and
non differentiation between private sector under
local/foreign authority.
Possible obstacles…
• Non availability of recurrent statistical data covering
all economic activities in all sectors;
• Ignorance of the importance of the use of National
Accounts Statistics for economic and social analysis
and its significance for policy making;
• Lack of capacity building and storage of national and
international expertise at the National Accounts
departments within countries due to frequent turnover
of staff and the lack of practical training capabilities;
• Confidentiality restrictions on many important sets of
statistical data such as oil and gas, military
expenditure, infrastructure, etc…
More obstacles…
• Lack of strict statistical laws obliging the various units
to provide the statistical bureau with the requested
data;
• Lack of technology and the know-how to use
advanced software for compiling sequential accounts
and input/output tables;
• Difficulties in understanding certain recommended
definitions and concepts;
Missing
Questionnaire
Information
Production side estimation…
Economic activity
Current Prices
sources
(ISIC 3.1)
Cat. A: Agriculture: Main field crops
Cat. A:
Other crops
Cat. A:
Livestock products
Cat. B: Fishing
Cat. C: Mining and quarrying: Extraction of Crude Oil and gas
Cat. C: Others under mining and quarrying
Cat. D: Manufacturing
Cat. E: Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
Cat. F: Construction
Cat. G: Wholesale and retail trade; repair of goods
Cat. H: Hotels and restaurants
Cat. I: Transport & storage
Cat. I: Communication
Cat. J: Financial Intermediation
Cat. K: Owner-ship of dwellings
Cat. K: others under real estate, renting and business activities
Cat. L: Public administration and defense; compulsory social security
Cat. M: Education
Cat. N: Health social work
Cat. O: Other community, social and personal service activities
Cat. P: Activities of private households as employers & other
Cat. Q: Extraterritorial organizations and bodies
methods
Constant Prices
sources
methods
Expenditure and Income side estimation…
Current Prices
Expenditure-side aggregates
sources
methods
Constant Prices
sources
methods
PFCE
of which, HFCE
of which, NPISHs’ consumption
GFCE
GFCF
Agriculture
Machinery & equipment
Transport equipment
Construction: residence
Construction: others
Others
Changes in inventories
Exports & Imports
Current Prices
Income-side aggregates
Compensation of employees
Operating surplus
Mixed income
Taxes & subsidies
sources
methods
Constant Prices
sources
methods
Thank you
Majed Skaini, UN-ESCWA
Expert Group Meeting on National Accounts
Cairo, 12-14 May 2009