Transcript Trento - La nuova ferrovia del Brennero

The Economic Impact
of New Infrastructure
Michael Wegener
Spiekermann & Wegener
Convegno "Il corridoio del Brennero nel quadro
delle infrastrutture dell'Italia settentrionale"
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Trento,
16 September 2005
Accessibility
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Rail travel times
from Trento in
1910
© K. Spiekermann
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Rail travel times
from Trento in
1970
© K. Spiekermann
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Rail travel times
from Trento in
1997
© K. Spiekermann
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Rail travel times
from Trento in
2020
© K. Spiekermann
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Accessibility and
Regional Development
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Accessibility and development
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Ireland
Central
Europe
Milan
Turin
Rom
e
Northern Italy
Mezzogiorno
East
Germany
Eastern Europe
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Transport Infrastructure
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Road network in the AlpenCorS area
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Rail network in the AlpenCorS area
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Airports in the AlenCorS area
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TEN/TINA priority projects in the AlpenCorS area
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Road projects: Valdastico/Pedemontana and Valsugana
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Rail projects: Southern bypass and Valsugana
The SASI Model
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SASI Model
Transport
policy
Production
function
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Accessibility
Migration
function
GDP
Income
Population
Employment
Unemployment
Labour
force
Scenarios
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Scenarios
No
Scenario description
000
Reference scenario
Brenner tunnel scenario
AS1 Brenner tunnel
Local scenarios
AS2 AS1 + Southern rail bypass
AS3 AS1 + Valdastico/Pedemontana motorways
AS4 AS1 + Valsugana road and rail corridor
AS5 AS1 + AS2 + AS3 + AS4
European scenario
AS6 All road TEN/TINA projects in Europe
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Scenario 000
Reference Scenario
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Reference Scenario
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Reference Scenario
Strasbourg 
Wien 
München 
 Zürich
 Bolzano
 Trento
 Lyon
 Milano
 Torino
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 Ljubljana
 Venezia
Reference Scenario
Strasbourg 
Wien 
München 
 Zürich
 Bolzano
 Trento
 Lyon
 Milano
 Torino
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 Ljubljana
 Venezia
Accessibility road/rail (travel, million)
Scenario 000
2021
Reference Scenario
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Scenario AS1
Effects of the Brenner Tunnel:
Accessibility
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Effects of the Brenner tunnel
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Effects of the Brenner tunnel
Strasbourg 
Wien 
München 
 Zürich
 Bolzano
 Trento
 Lyon
 Milano
 Torino
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 Ljubljana
 Venezia
Scenario AS1
Effects of the Brenner Tunnel:
GDP per Capita
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Effects of the Brenner tunnel
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Effects of the Brenner tunnel
Strasbourg 
Wien 
München 
 Zürich
 Bolzano
 Trento
 Lyon
 Milano
 Torino
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 Ljubljana
 Venezia
Scenario AS6
All TEN/TINA Projects:
GDP per Capita
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All TEN/TINA projects
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All TEN/TINA projects
Strasbourg 
Wien 
München 
 Zürich
 Bolzano
 Trento
 Lyon
 Milano
 Torino
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 Ljubljana
 Venezia
Accessibility road/rail (travel, million)
Scenario AS5 v. 000
2021
All local projects
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Accessibility road/rail/air (travel, million)
Scenario AS6 v. 000
2021
All TEN/TINA projects
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Scenario Comparison
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Effect (%)
Brenner tunnel (AS1): accessibility road/rail
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Effect (%)
Brenner tunnel (AS1): GDP per capita (Euro)
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Effect (%)
Comparison of Scenarios: Trento
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Effect (%)
Comparison of Scenarios: Trento
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What does this mean for Trento?
The Trento region can expect to gain from the Brenner tunnel
175 million Euro or 300 Euro per inhabitant per year (in
Euro of 2005) in 2021.
If also the other local infrastructure projects are implemented,
it can expect 230 million Euro or 400 Euro per inhabitant
per year in 2021.
These figures do not include the benefits of improvements of
the logistics infrastructure.
However, these figures relate to 2021. In the years until 2021
the benefits are smaller as they gradually build up following
the implementation of the infrastructure.
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Conclusions
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Conclusions (1): accessibility
Good access to suppliers and markets is
one of the preconditions for the production
of goods and services.
Transport infrastructure is therefore one of
the primary instruments of governments to
promote regional competitiveness.
However, transport infrastructure can also
increase the disparities between regions,
generates more traffic and leads to higher
energy consumption and greenhouse gas
emissions.
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Conclusions (2): macro trends
The regional effects of transport projects
and transport policies are small compared
with those of socio-economic and technical
macro trends, such as
- globalisation,
- growing competition between regions,
- ageing of the population,
- increasing labour force participation,
- growing labour productivity.
Large increases in accessibility translate into
only small changes in economic activity.
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Conclusions (3): the Brenner tunnel
The implementation of the Brenner tunnel
will be a key factor for linking northern and
southern Europe.
The accessibility effects of the tunnel will
reach from the Baltic to the Mediterranean.
The effects for freight will be even more far
reaching than those for travel.
The economic effects of the Brenner tunnel
will be smaller but also far-reaching.
The regions south of the tunnel exit, Bozen/
Bolzano and Trento, will benefit most.
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Conclusions (4): local projects
The local transport infrastructure projects
south of the Brenner tunnel will spread the
tunnel effects to adjacent regions.
The Valdastico and Pedemontana motorway extensions will be most successful in
promoting other regions.
If all three local projects, the southern rail
bypass, the Valdastico and Pedemontana
motorways and the Valsugana road and rail
corridor, are combined, the effect of spreading the tunnel effects to other Italian regions
are most pronounced.
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Conclusions (5): European projects
If besides the local projects also European
transport infrastructure projects of the TEN
and TINA programmes outside the Alpine
Space are taken into account, the effects
on accessibility and regional economic
development are much stronger.
Although the TEN and TINA programmes
have been recently re-oriented towards
improving the transport systems of the new
EU member states, the regions south of
the Alps remain on the winner side.
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More information:
Modelling Regional Development in
AlpenCorS. Final Report. AlpenCorS
Deliverable 5. Dortmund, 2005.
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