Transcript Major factors influencing food security in

Major factors influencing food
security in Southern Africa
GOSA 2011
Presented by Pieter Esterhuysen
09/03/11
?????
Food security
Malnutrition
Food safety
Underweight
Food hygiene
Hunger
1 billion people do not have enough to eat = › populations
of USA/EU/Canada
Malnutrition is the worlds largest risk to health - greater
than the combined risk of Aids/Malaria/Tuberculoses
98 percent of the world's hungry live in developing
countries
Women = 50% world's population, but 60 % hungry
10.9 million children under five die in developing countries
each year
1 out of 4 children - roughly 146 million - in developing
countries are underweight
Lack of Vitamin A kills a million infants a year
The concept of Food Security
Food security exists when all people, at all
times have physical and economic access
to sufficient , safe and nutritious food to meet
their dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life (FAO)
International Food Security
World maize production and consumption
Volume (Million Tons)
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
Production
2008/09
Consumption
2009/10
Food security in Southern Africa
SSA has a serious food security problem
Up to 90 of food production is rain fed
35% of GDP
40% of exports
70% of employment
80% of staple needs
Up to 50% below poverty line
Pop. growth = +-2% › production growth
Thus – food gap is growing
Determinants of Food Security
Accessibility
Availability
Food
Security
Adequacy
Acceptability
Food security in Southern Africa
Affordability = Can I get it when I need it?
Availability = Is there enough?
Affordability
50% of our continents population earn $1 and less per day
Individuals are poor in our continent
Food security is in the first place a socio-economic issue
More food is not = to less hunger/ more food
security
Country (GDP/capita) vs. individual disposable income
(Botswana = US$8 000 pa)
Economic growth (sluggish but picking up)
Unemployment rate (10% tot 60% ??)
Distribution of income and wealth
NGO and GO programmes
Affordability
Action
NGO and GO programmes (food supply and supply driven)
Programmes to stimulate small scale production (360%)
Stimulate economic growth (poor people to share)
Land ownership issues and other policy issues
All other issues hampering development of the ag sector
Availability
Availability ≠ local production
Availability ≠ surplus in a country/region
Availability of staple = sophisticated
effective integration of
the food value chain
Availability
1.
Infrastructure
Food Security demands safe storage
Storage (distribution/local crop – 20%)
Support SGR
Bag focus
Lack of critical mass
Location and management
No specialised profit motive
Good growth (NGO and
Zam
Zim
Mal
Moz
GO) Tan
2 mil
3.5 mil
0.7 mil
0.045 mil
0.25 mil
Availability
1.
Infrastructure
Food Security demands a free flow of grains
Road, rail and port
Major problem
East London/Durban/Maputo/Beira/Nacala/Mombasa
Road and rail in the RSA ????
East West and North South corridors (SADC – China?)
Availability
2.
Markets (Price discovery)
Natural Food security demands transparent
prices and base recognition




SAFEX
ZamACE
ACE (Malawi)
ZIMACE
(liquidity/cash/trust/storage solution/Price?)
Availability
3.
Status of trading community
Food security demands solutions for time,
location, access problems
Hated species
Solve the time problem
Solve the location problem
Solve the standardisation problem
Provide market access
Needs resources and risk
Enemy = gov. intervention/currency
Availability
4.
Financing options
Food security demands a well functioning
commodity value chain (carry finance)
HIGH LOW SPREAD (FINANCING??)
Africa trade cash!
Lack of acceptable storage
Lack of liquidity
Lack of transparent prices
Lack of hedging options
Ownership arrangements - security
Availability
5.
Government involvement
Food Security ‘demands’ what? The market solved
the RSA problem (transparent/stable playing field)
(inward logistics/political sensitivityMalawi elections – fertiliser, Zimbabwe
aid distribution)
Maize Production (000 toones)
Intervention in prices
Intervention in trading options
Administration/policies (borders)
SGR (procurement and liquidation)
Based on trust problem
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Years
Zim = 0.5 mil mt
Zam = 0.2 mil mt
Mal = 0.2 mil mt
Tan = 0.1 mil mt
Moz = 0.06 mil mt
Availability
6.
Small scale vs. Commercial production
Food security demands availability and
affordability
Policies/investment focused commercial production
Formal inputs = import parity priced
Cannot compete in local markets
Provide tradable commodity – not affordable food
Increase small scale production???
Maize production in Southern Africa
Country
SADC
+Kenya
-RSA
Cleared
Arable land
Arable land cultivated
77 million 31 %
Ha
Maize Total maize
yield production
1.1
16 million Mt
Mt/Ha
Food Aid = 700 000 mt to 1.5 million mt
Maize production increase
Double hectares
=
Double yields
=
Halve post harvest losses =
+16 mil mt
+16 mil mt
+ 800 000 mt
Total availability
Previous available
62.7 mil mt
14.4 mil mt
=
=
Economic effect
Effect on region
+- US$ 8 billion (+-R56 000 000 000)
Effect on a household
Old income
New income
=
=
Income increase = 350%
$80
$360
FOOD SECURITY
FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ANALYSED
FOOD SECURITY CAN BE THE TOPIC TO PHILOSIFYING
FOOD SECURITY CAN BE A POLITICAL INSTRUMENT
FOOD SECURITY CAN BE TRADED
FOOD SECURITY CAN PROVIDE PROFITS
FOOD SECURITY COULD JUSTIFY THE EXISTANCE OF NGO’S
?
FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ALL THESE THINGS
BUT
IN ESSENCE, FOOD SECURITY DISCRIBES
THE BASIC STATE OF HUMAN KIND
I CARE ABOUT THAT