Transcript 创业策划分析

Business Planning Analysis-03
Name: Lee Xiantao
Branches: Business School , Binhai University
Tel: 15253221531
E-mail: [email protected]
Preparation
Question:
(1) Are you familiar with China’s property market?
How do you think about the future of property market?
(2) Is there any really asset bubble in property market?
How do you think about “investment” and “speculation” ?
Property Market in China
(1) Evolutionary road of property market
(2) Marketing analysis of property market
(3) Asset bubble in property market
(4) Funding chain of property developers
(5) Mainstay industry
---China’s Urbanization VS. Pseudo-Urbanization
(6) Opportunity and challenge of property market
Learning objectives
(1) To make an independent analysis for property market;
(2) To write an research paper about future trend of China’s property
market;
(3) To write a marketing plan for property developers
Evolutionary road of property market
① Traditional phase (1949-1978)
☆ Government-oriented , residents can’t get property rights ;
☆ House as public welfare, pay a little rent ;
☆ forbid trade in the market
② Transitional phase (1979-1998)
☆ Partial property rights (from government to individual) ;
☆ House as commodity, pay the price and receive some funding
☆ Establish relevant policy ; carry out regional experiments
Evolutionary road of property market
③ Commercial phase (1998-)
☆ Privatization of property rights ;
☆ House as a pure commodity ; exchange based on
the market price (depending on demand and supply) ;
☆ Mature regulation / prosperous commercialization
☆ Multilateral game
Marketing analysis of property market
Stakeholders’ game (1)
credit
Government
loan
land
registering
tax
fund
Bank
interest
Purchaser
spread
house
loan
Property developer
revenue
house
Speculator
Marketing analysis of property market
Stakeholders’ game (2)
Government
vs. Property developer
Bank
vs.
Property developer
Property developer vs.
Speculator and Purchaser
Bank
vs.
Speculator and Purchaser
Government
vs.
Speculator and Purchaser
Marketing analysis of property market
Profit distribution and stakeholders’ hierarchy
35%-45%
Government
6%-7.7%
Bank
15%-25%
Property developer
5%-12%
Speculator
Purchaser
Marketing analysis of property market
(1) Why is the housing price so high?
☆ the gap between demand and supply ;
Urbanization / dual economy / investment and speculation
☆ monopoly (land / capital / trade market)
Only the highest bidder can get the land.
☆ inflation
Widening income disparity along with upgrading consumption
☆ worse business environment
Marketing analysis of property market
Inflation—CPI rising
Marketing analysis of property market
(1) Why is the housing price so high?
☆ global finance crisis
(lending cost / exchange rate / industrial structure)
☆ transaction cost is rising
(property tax / stamp tax / rent-seeking / material price)
☆ “popular ” land finance
(funding and tax revenue from selling land account for large
proportion of total revenue in some local governments)
Marketing analysis of property market
(1) Why is the housing price so high?
☆ hot money (speculative capital)
Asset bubble in property market
Where is my house?
Asset bubble in property market
land finance (Total revenue from selling land)