Transcript Demographic Trends - FutureForce Halton

Rosemary Venne: University of Saskatchewan
Demographic Trends: Canada
• small spread out population + large land mass
= high infrastructure costs
• population pyramids: middle-age
spread/boomers
• aging population
• current fertility rate (1.5)
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Demographic Groups
• depression/wartime bust; born 1930-1946
aged 66-76 (in year 2006);
• postwar babyboom born 1947-1966
aged 40-59 in 2006;
• postboom bust; born 1967-1979; aged 27-39
in year 2006;
• babyboom echo born 1980-1995; aged 11-26
in 2006
• continuing bust 1996 on
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Demographic Trends: Halton
• slightly younger than Canadian profile
• very mobile population
•Stronger growth rate than the provincial average
with Milton and Oakville leading the way
•an immigrant-receiving province/region
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Trends: boom/bust cycles
• Boom groups: face more (within-group)
generational crowding; generally boom groups
have a harder time throughout their lifetime;
•Results in excess labour supply and lower wages
•Bust groups: face less generational crowding;
generally bust groups have a smoother sail through
life
•Results in labour shortage and higher wage rate
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Trends: Career Patterns
• steady state career pattern: vocation, one
lifetime job; seniority, security important
• linear career pattern: promotion-centred,
climbing the career ladder; power
• spiral career pattern: many jobs, lateral moves;
re-education and training
• transitory career pattern: contract, project work;
many jobs; teams, variety
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Career: interaction effects
•Demographic bust + economic boom = very
favourable interaction effect for
depression/wartime baby bust
•Demographic boom + stagnant/variable
economy = overall less favourable interaction
effect for baby boom
•Current bust: more variable
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Trends: postwar changes
•rising prosperity, rise in standard of living,
acceleration of tech development
•economic boom with small labour force
•tall organizational hierarchies
• 1970/80s changes: oil price shocks;
globalization, downsizing and delayering
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Changing factors affecting careers
• career pattern shifts: from stability to flux
• delayering and flattening corporate
hierarchies
• stagnant wage growth since mid 1970s
• rising skill requirements and tech change
• lifelong learning
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Delayering: Dupont Example
•In order to compete, Dupont flattened their hierarchy
in the early 1990s:
• Before: Dupont lost business prior to flattening their
hierarchy because new projects had to survive 4 levels
of review –very time consuming (in the 1980s)
•Now: Dupont is faster as new projects have to survive
just one level of review (with flatter pyramid, more
autonomy and more participatory mgmt)
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Real wage growth (family income)
•1950s: 50%
•1960s: 40%
•1970s: 22%
•1980s: 3%
•1990s: 8%
•Taking into account tax increases and inflation
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Changing factors affecting youth and careers
• slower to leave home
• sometimes boomerang back (cluttered nest)
• increased educational participation (no
longer job-ready at end of high school)
• more difficult school-to-work transition
• career shifters and lifelong learners
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Changing factors affecting youth and careers
• quote: the 1990s will be looked upon as the
decade when the labour market divided into
the educational haves and have-nots;
-in an economy that puts a premium on
knowledge (and credentials), higher levels of
education are becoming a must for young
people
Source: Globe and Mail, B. Little Oct, 1999.
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Trends: Changing workplaces
• increasing diversity in labour force
• including: more women, more visible
minorities, greater education
• more flexible policies to suit workforce
• flexible work hours, flexible benefit plans
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Labour force supply issues in the 21st century
•decreasing portion of life cycle in labour
force
•slow growing labour supply (flat by 2016)
•babyboom echo entering labour force
•unknown labour demand (importance of the
economy)
•continued technological change
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Trends: Tech change affecting
the workplace
• Gallatin Steel : It used to take 5000 people
to produce as much steel as Gallatin’s 300person workforce can produce in 1995!
• 40% of their workforce has college or
university degrees
•
from: 1st college, then the mill, Globe and Mail ROB,
August 29,1995
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Generational differences
• most changes are a long time coming (eg
less automatic respect for authority)
• age cycle vs generational differences
•Reactions to economic conditions
• tech changes (comfort with technology)
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Trends: Strategies for Retention
• provide skill building and professional
growth
• offer career planning & mentoring
• offer leaves (especially for those in
remote locations)
• offer flexible benefits and work hours
• be life friendly (work-life balance)
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Trends: Strategies for Sustaining
Talent
• keeping talent tuned in and turned on
• investing in human capital with basic
skills training (eg presentation skills)
• providing challenging work with training
and support
• retention strategies will be paramount
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Changing workplace practices: HRP
•HRP can be proactive: Labour Force of next 2
decades already born
•Increasing importance of immigration
•Retention strategies
•Increasing emphasis on lateral job changes, eg
job rotation, career planning and lifelong
learning
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