Transcript Delivery of Official Statistics

The Impact of the Economic Downturn
on the
Delivery of Official Statistics
Sonia M. Jackson
Director General
Statistical Institute of Jamaica
Overview of the Presentation






Manifestation of the global crisis
The impact of the crisis on the Jamaican
economy
The implications for the NSOs
Are the NSOs able to respond to the crisis based
on the current internal structure & culture, the
demand for new and faster data sets and the
other national imperatives?
An Action Plan that examines the issues
presented
Conclusion
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
2
Global Economic Crisis –
Manifestation of the Crisis


Collapse of major financial institutions
Bearish stock markets –
 Lowest Dow Jones Index – USA
 Russia shutting down their biggest stock market for
two days
 European & Asian Stock markets recorded sharp
declines

The Japanese Economy, one of the largest in
the world, declined

Loss of confidence in the financial system
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
3
Global Economic Crisis –
Impact on the US Economy




Significant decline in wealth;
GDP growth in the US fell to 1.1 per cent in
2008;
US unemployment rate increased to 7.2 per
cent in December 2008. Total job losses for
2008 was 2.6 million.
Consumer confidence and spending
plummeted;
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
4
Impact on the Jamaican Economy





Deteriorating external merchandise trade balance
will impact balance of payments
 Approximately 89% of exports are to the USA
Access to loans for productive sector is at higher
rates
Manufacturers unable to obtain usual 90 day credit
facilities for raw material
Reduction in tourists arrivals & reduced spending
by tourists
Reduction in remittance inflows by approx. 2-3% in
2008 - projected growth rate was 8 – 10%
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
5
Impact on the Jamaican Economy





Closure of the bauxite production plants
Increased demand for foreign exchange
Increased challenges in accessing capital on the
international market to finance budget deficit
Increased difficulties in attracting foreign
investment capital
Net results – projected slowing down of the
economy – GDP 1st quarter results: -3.1%
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
6
Implications for the NSOs of the Caribbean





Reduced funding to the NSO;
The overall implications for the delivery of
products/services;
The increased demand for more and varied
information at faster rates with higher degrees of
accuracy;
The need for standardization & harmonization of
definitions & concepts at the national level, at the
regional level as well at the international level;
The need to determine the capacity of the NSO and
the NSS to deliver and maintain minimum data sets
for monitoring the economy, society and the
environment.
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
7
Results of Needs Assessment Survey –
increased frequency
Data Types
Monthly
Quarterly
Total
Annually
Living Conditions
15.0%
19.0%
34.0%
67.0%
Demographic Statistics
13.0%
23.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Environmental Statistics
24.0%
28.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Employment & Earnings
27.0%
35.0%
62.0%
35.0%
Production Statistics
35.0%
50.0%
85.0%
15.0%
National Accounts Aggregates
23.0%
41.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Labour Force Data
38.0%
38.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Other 1
50.0%
38.0%
88.0%
13.0%
Price Indices
43.0%
30.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Trade Data
43.0%
26.0%
70.0%
30.0%
ALL
29.0%
32.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Census Data
5 yrs
72%
10 yrs
28%
1Crime/Security;
2Source
Tourism; Community/Dev. Planning; Geography/GIS; etc.
– Jamaica Needs Assessment Survey 2008
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
8
Results of Needs Assessment Survey –
concerns about data quality
Timeliness – data not always current
26%
Punctuality – late delivery of reports
21%
Data integrity – invalid/inconsistent
19%
Importing/exporting of data – format not supported
12%
Interpretation/analysis - ambiguous
12%
Ease of use – publications, etc – presentation,
language
8%
Other
3%
Total
100%
Source – Jamaica Needs Assessment Survey 2008
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
9
Internal Organization of the NSO

The ability of the NSO to carry out its mandate
examining:









the organizational structure & culture,
the legislative framework,
autonomy & the adequacy of funding,
the support and commitment from Government
other operational issues, e.g. data collection, data sharing
facilities, protection of confidentiality
risk management & business continuity
Adequacy of staff – in numbers and skills sets
Shortage of specialist skills – e.g. sampling experts
The costs of developing & retaining trained staff
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
10
Challenges with data collection






Costs – particularly in household surveys
The impact of crime & violence
Environmental hazards-particularly in the
hurricane seasons
Lack of a data culture
Lack of trust of the Government & its Agencies
Low response to data requests – mainly
enterprise surveys
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
11
Development Priorities
Statistical information is required to support:



Monitoring & reporting on the MDGs & other
IADGs
Enabling the CSME- implementing the CARICOM
Regional Statistics Work Programme (RSWP)
Internal development strategies – Trinidad –
Vision 2020 ; Jamaica – Vision 2030
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
12
New Areas of Work
These topics have been included in the RSWP but not fully
implemented:
 Informal sector – employment & contribution to the GDP
 ICT statistics & impact on development
 Coordination of the NSS to include things such as:- a
common code of ethics; common standards; metadata for
all official statistics
 New indices – housing, construction, entertainment &
sports, etc.
 Agriculture statistics – volume & price
 food security & the implications for increased poverty levels
 Imports of food vis-á-vis local production, comparative
costs & the impact on the employment
 Modernization of existing series – National Accounts, CPI,
etc
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
13
The Action Plan





Each country needs to establish its own priority for
data monitoring & reporting on national imperatives;
The NSO needs to evaluate those needs and assess
the financial and other resources required to satisfy
those needs and lobby for them;
The use of technology to improve collection,
processing & analysis of data – costs of
implementation needs to be identified;
There will be the need to identify new sources of
funding – through establishing new relationships;
Operational efficiencies have to be improved;
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
14
The Action Plan cont’d

Skills gaps need to be identified & filled – training,
outsourcing & technical assistance:




Areas of training should include – general management,
financial management, project management, specific
statistical areas to fill gaps identified
Outsourcing would include contracting the skills for short term
& contracting out the delivery of some products to other
agencies/NSO when not feasible or sustainable
Technical assistance to offices is critical to development
process but it must be grounded in capacity building
New data sources need to be identified to fill the gaps
arising out of “no and/or low response” to data requests:

The use of administrative data sets; these have to be
evaluated and validated
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
15
The Action Plan cont’d


Overall service delivery needs to be
modernized – organizational culture needs to
be changed from “supply driven” to being
“customer centric”;
Review of legal framework – and make
recommendations for amendments where
necessary;
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
16
The Action Plan cont’d


Leading the establishment of the coordination
mechanism for the development of the NSS through
providing assistance to the MDAs in strengthening
their capacity to provide official statistics
Establishing data sharing mechanisms that facilitate
a unified approach to data management, the
submission of data within the country to the NSO
and from the NSO to the regional & international
organizations

The central role of CARICOM in compiling & harmonizing
the statistics from the countries of the region, acting as a
repository of the data & data dissemination & monitoring
the effectiveness of the CSME cannot be overlooked
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
17
CONCLUSION



It is not business as usual!! With limited financial & other
resources, the NSOs are going to find the operating
environment to be very challenging;
The Head of the NSO will have to be:
 a leader who will direct the operations into new areas
– previously uncharted waters
 A good manager – to manage scarce & limited
resources to get maximum returns
 A good communicator – in order to expand his/her
relationships and contacts
Some old traditions should be reviewed – it may become
necessary to separate the managerial/leadership
functions from the technical aspects of the CEO’s job
function;
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
18
CONCLUSION cont’d




The CEO must be prepared for the new environmenthis/her skill sets must include management expertise &
training as prerequisites of the job. Management training
needs to be provided to Senior Statisticians in preparation
as a necessary requirement for upward mobility;
The changes that are necessary must be implemented in
the shortest time possible;
The use of technology will facilitate speedier collection and
processing of data but the initial and continuing
investments have to be made;
The support and commitment of the Government to the
process of developing the NSO and the NSS is critical to
their viability and sustainability.
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
19
Thank you !!.
STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA
20