Transcript PPT
THE PERSPECTIVE OF POLICY ON DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED STATISTICS PROGRAMME IN SUPPORT OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 2008 SNA February 3-7, 2014 St Lucia POLICY PERSPECTIVE, JAMAICA National Development Plan for Jamaica Vision 2030 Outlines national goals, strategies & outcomes National Outcome #7: A Stable Macro economy Fiscal balance of 0% of GDP Debt to GDP ratio of 75% Real GDP annual growth rate of 5% POLICY PERSPECTIVE, JAMAICA In 2013 the Government entered into an extended fund facility with the IMF. This required the Government to embark on an extensive economic reform programme. Some of the objectives laid out in the medium term macro-economic framework were; Significantly raising the rate of real GDP and per capita income growth POLICY PERSPECTIVE, JAMAICA Virtually eliminating fiscal deficit and substantially reducing debt burden A central government budget consistent with an overall fiscal balance of 0 per cent of GDP Debt/GDP ratio of no more than 100 per cent by FY 2015/16. The long run objective is to reduce the debt ratios of the government to around 60 per cent of GDP POLICY PERSPECTIVE, JAMAICA Wages to GDP ratio of 9% Monetary policy will focus on maintaining single digit inflation. Inflation projected to be at 8% by 2016/17 supported by an effective monetary policy strategy DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED STATISTICS In January 2013 Jamaica participated in a national planning seminar for the implementation of the SNA 2008 in conjunction with UNSD Seminar included participants from the Bank of Jamaica, the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Ministry of Finance DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED STATISTICS The following were some of the needs of these agencies; 1. More detailed macro economic data with greater frequency to formulate policy and assess progress For the Central Bank monetary policy is better assessed using demand side aggregates The bank therefore requires estimates of the components of aggregate demand at a higher frequency DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED STATISTICS 2. Improvement of the quality and timeliness of the underlying data required for compiling the macroeconomic accounts of Jamaica. Most targets especially those in the IMF agreement are benchmarked against the GDP so the level, timeliness and frequency are critical DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED STATISTICS 3. Demands for meeting macro-prudential and financial stability regulations require the extension of the national accounts to include the integrated presentation of integrated sequence of accounts and balance sheets with fromwhom-to-whom perspective. This requires extension into institutional accounts as monitoring of the sectors can inform policies DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED STATISTICS Taking into account these needs the strategy statement for the implementation of the SNA 2008 outline the following components to the national accounts The first phase will be completed in 2016 and should cover Milestone 2 of the 2008 . No plans in the medium term to include the financial accounts and balance sheets due to resource constraints DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED STATISTICS Compilation of quarterly GDP by expenditure Institutional Accounts re-introduced on phased basis starting with government institutional accounts Efforts to ensure the exhaustiveness of the GDP. Jamaica now in the process of developing an informal sector study DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED STATISTICS Implementation of the SNA 2008 however will require improvement in the basic statistics used in the national accounts such as Development work has started on a monthly production volume Development of trade indices currently underway Conversion of industries to be compliant with ISIC Rev 4 DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED STATISTICS Expansion of PPI from the current Mining and Manufacturing industries Rebasing of CPI is currently in progress Increased use of administrative data (service agreements/ MOUs for formalizing modalities) Integration of BPM6 and 2008 SNA-related surveys Improvement in the regulatory and institutional framework are also critical and Jamaica is currently in the process of developing a National Statististics System (NSS)