Transcript Monthly Percentage Change Over Prior Year World Air Cargo Traffic

Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging
Air Cargo Market
January 24, 2008
Dr. Dinesh Keskar
Senior Vice President – Sales,
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
Agenda
•
•
•
•
World Air Cargo Forecast
India Cargo Market
Boeing Freighter Products
Summary
World Air Cargo Grew 5.1% in October 2007
Relative to Traffic Levels of October 2006
25%
Mo. % Change - History
15%
10%
5%
Ja
nu
ar
y
20
07
Ja
nu
ar
y
20
06
Ja
nu
ar
y
20
05
Ja
nu
ar
y
20
04
Ja
nu
ar
y
20
03
Ja
nu
ar
y
Ja
nu
ar
y
20
02
-5%
20
01
Ja
nu
ar
y
0%
20
00
Monthly Percentage Change Over Prior Year
12-Mo. Avg. History
20%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, AAPA, AEA, ATA and the Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast.
World Air Cargo Traffic Is Expected To
Triple Over the Next 20 Years
RTKs, billions
800
History
High
Base
Low
Forecast
Average annual growth,
2005 to 2025
High
6.9%
Base
6.1%
Low
5.3%
600
400
5.1% growth
per year
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
YEAR
2015
2020
2025
World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple, and
Asia Will Lead Industry Growth
Europe-Asia:
6.9% Average
Annual Growth
through 2025
Asia- North America:
7.1% Average Annual
Growth through 2025
Intra-Asia: 8.6%
Average Annual
Growth through 2025
As intra-Asia, Transpacific and Europe-Asia routes will lead growth, the market
will increasingly demand long range, low tonne-kilometer cost service.
In-Service Freighter Fleet will Double–
With a Shift Toward Widebody Freighters
Large (>80 tonnes)
Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)
Standard-body (<45 tonnes)
2026
2006
33%
36%
24%
42%
34%
1,980
freighters
31%
3,980
freighters
Freighters Will Remain ~11% of the
World’s Jet In-Service Fleet in the Future
Y2006
Y2026
Freighters
1,980
Freighters
3,980
Passenger
16,250
Passenger
32,440
18,230 Airplanes
36,420 Airplanes
Future Deliveries of New Aircraft
2007 - 2026
Twin-aisle
20%
Single-Aisle
62%
Large
2%
Regional Jets
13%
Total: 28,600
1.013418
0.997332
0.981246
0.96516
0.949074
0.932988
0.916902
0.900816
0.88473
0.868644
0.852558
0.836472
0.820386
0.8043
0.788214
0.772128
0.756042
0.739956
0.72387
0.707784
0.691698
0.675612
0.659526
0.64344
0.627354
0.611268
0.595182
0.579096
0.56301
0.546924
Freighters
0.530838
0.514752
0.498666
3%
0.48258
0.466494
0.450408
0.434322
0.418236
0.40215
0.386064
0.369978
0.353892
0.337806
0.32172
0.305634
0.289548
0.273462
0.257376
0.24129
0.225204
0.209118
0.193032
0.176946
0.16086
0.144774
0.128688
0.112602
0.096516
0.08043
0.064344
0.048258
0.032172
0.0160860
Large
Freighters
72%
Medium
Widebody
26%
Standard-body 2%
Total: 870
Freighter Fleet Growth Forecast Thru 2026
Nearly Three-Quarters Will Be Converted Units
Freighter aircraft, units
4,000
New freighters
3,000
Fleet
additions,
3,350 units
2,000
1,000
Conversion market
Current/retained fleet
~630 units
0
2006
2026
Future Freighter Deliveries
New and Converted 2007-2026
Standard-body (<45 tonnes)
Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)
Large (>80 tonnes)
Standard-body
1,290 total
630
new
Large
1,090 total
1,270
converted
460
converted
220
new
20 new
750
converted
Medium Widebody
970 total
Total 3,350 Units
(2,480 Converted, 870 New)
Asia Will Receive the Most Large Freighters
Number of New and Converted Airplanes, 2007-2026
1,600
Large
Medium widebody
Standard-body
1,200
800
400
0
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe and CIS
Africa and
Middle East
Latin America
India’s Cargo Market
India GDP growth has averaged well
over 6% over the last 10 years
India GDP Growth
Actual
Forecast
9.0%
GDP Growth (%)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1. 0 %
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
0.0%
Year
Source: The Economist
Increased Twin Aisle Deliveries to India
Will Boost Belly Cargo
Y2007 - Y2026
Type
Regional Jets
Single Aisle
Twin Aisle
747 and Larger
TOTAL
2006
2007
2007 Dollars*
(Units)
(Units)
(Billions)
51
676
120
9
856
55
674
173
9
911
$1.72
$45.58
$35.26
$3.44
$86.0
*In year 2006 dollars
Catalogue Prices
Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2007
Scheduled International Indian Air Cargo Traffic
Has Grown 9.9% per Year Over the Last 5 Years
Metric tons (tonnes) enplaned, thousands
Europe
Far East Asia
Middle East
Southwest Asia
Africa
North America
CIS
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India
Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India
2004-2005
2005-2006
Europe, Far East Asia and the Middle East Comprise
India’s Three Largest Scheduled Cargo Traffic Flows
Metric tons (tonnes) enplaned, thousands & historic five-year growth rate, percentage
Europe to India:
122.8 / 7.3%
India to Far East
Asia: 87.9 / 8.7%
India to
Europe :
187.3 / 7.3%
Far East Asia to
India: 121.3 / 18.7%
Middle East to
India: 57.1 / 17.9%
India to the Middle
East: 151.1 / 6.0%
Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India, Financial
Year 2005-2006 data. Non-Scheduled (charter) and sea-air traffic NOT included.
Leading Indian Air Cargo Airports
The size of the Indian international and domestic air freight market in 2006 was
estimated to be ~1,500,000 tonnes, up about 10% from 2005. Leading air freight
airports in terms of tonnage were:
Mumbai:
478,600
Delhi:
398,437
Chennai:
233,769
Bangalore:
165,406
Kolkata:
83,528
Domestic Indian Air Cargo Traffic Will Expand
at 9.1% per Year, Although from a Small Base
Tonnes, thousands
2,000
Forecast
History
Average annual growth,
High
Base
Low
2005 to 2025
High
10.0%
Base
9.1%
Low
8.1%
1,500
1,000
12.5% growth per
year
500
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Private carriers are leading the
way in cargo carried
TOTAL DOMESTIC CARGO CARRIED BY
ALL SCHEDULED AND NON-SCHEDULED OPERATORS IN INDIA
160,000
SCHDEDULED NATIONAL CARRIES
CARGO CARRIED (TONNES)
SCHDEDULED PRIVATE CARRIERS
SCHEDULED CARGO OPERATOR*
120,000
80,000
40,000
Source: India DGCA
YEAR
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
1997-98
*1996-97
0
Current India Freighter Fleet
In-Service Freighter Fleet Consists of 12 Aircraft
Mfr & Type
Airbus A310-300F
Boeing 737-200F Adv
Boeing 757-200SF
Fokker 50 (Bulk Freighter)
Grand Total
Source: AirClaims reported as of Nov 14, 2007.
Air India
2
3
Blue Dart
5
6
4
2
Crescent Air Grand Total
2
7
2
1
1
1
12
Boeing Offers Freighter Solutions
For Every Market
Record Freighter Orders
Boeing freighters sets third consecutive
record sales year
2005
2006
2007
74
81
83
Note: Orders reflected are net orders for the year.
Boeing offers a complete line of
freighters to meet the market needs
Boeing
747-8 F
Revenue payload
1,000-kg (1,000-lb)
136
(300)
Airbus
A380F*
747-400F/-ERF
747-400BCF
777 Freighter
MD-11BCF
91
(200)
A330-200F
767-300F
767-300BCF
A300-600F
A300-600P2F
767-200SF
45
(100)
757-200SF
737-700C
• Revenue payload does not include tare weight.
* Boeing assessment.
0
A310P2F
The 777 Freighter Widebody Freighter With Twinjet Economics
Carries Industry-standard
3-m High Pallets and
159 kg/m3 Density Cargo
Mediumlarge
size offers
low risk
Large
Cargo
Door
Quiet for
nighttime
departures
103 Tonnes Max
Structural Payload
Long-range
Capability
777 Freighter Customers and Firm Orders
5
8
15
14
6
6
8
5
Unidentified
Customers
2
6
2
82 firm orders from 12 customers
worldwide
• As of October 31, 2007.
5
The 777 Freighter delivers
•
103-tonne (226,700-lb) revenue payload capability
•
The longest range twin-engine freighter
•
Lowest trip cost of any large freighter
•
19% to 40% fuel per tonne advantage over today’s
freighters
•
High commonality with 777 passenger airplanes
•
Mixed-fleet flying potential with 747 and 787
•
Same airport infrastructure as 747F
•
Capable of hauling “real world” densities
•
Meets Stage 4/QC2 noise regulations
797-WD-0261 8-24-5-CF/JW
747-8F: The right choice for the large
freighter market
•
•
•
•
•
Proven Market
Leadership
New revenue
opportunities
Lowest tonnemile costs of any
freighter
Key commonality
with existing
fleets
Environmental
benchmark for
large freighters
747-8
747-400
BOEING PROPRIETARY
Building on the Proven Performance
of the 747 Freighter
9 out of the Top 10 World Air Cargo Carriers
Use 747 Freighter Aircraft
These top carriers represent more than one-third of world air cargo traffic
Source: International Air Transport Association, company reports, Air Cargo World research
Boeing Widebody Freighter Performance
max design range at structural limit
Boeing Converted Freighter:
much more than a conversion
• Boeing freighter airplane
Created from production-passenger and productionfreighter airplanes—by the same OEM team
Based on experience of hundreds of conversions
Conforms to Boeing standards—engineering, product
integrity and safety, certification, program management,
and support
• High-quality, low-risk, on-schedule execution
Boeing management and commitment
World-class supplier-partners
Proven track record
• Operational flexibility
Fully integrated data and manuals
Payload-range advantages
• Seamless global in-service support
Support network for the whole airplane
Spare parts commonality with production freighter
747-400BCF customer status
In Service
On Order
6
2 firm
3
5 firm
4
4 firm
4
3 firm*
4
3 firm
3**
1
3 firm
2 firm**
25
Data as of December 31, 2007
23
* 2 combis
** combis
Summary
•
•
World air cargo growth was accelerating in 2007 and grew nearly 5%
The world freighter fleet will nearly double to 3980 aircraft by 2026,
primarily led by widebodies
•
Markets connected to Southwest Asia will expand from 6% to 6.5% per
year while domestic India will expand 9.1% per year over the next 20 years
•
India is projected to have leading GDP going forward enabling great
opportunities for cargo market growth
•
Over 90% of worldwide freighter airplane capacity is flown by Boeing
aircraft
•
Boeing offers the most comprehensive freighter solutions to meet varying
market demands