Transcript Death loss amount = Flooding area( )

Suggesting a scheme to construct an integrated assessment
system of flood control measures
Establishment of a scheme to select optimum economic
flood control measures
Construction of an assessment system applicable for members
of the typhoon committee
Constructing reasonable and integrated
assessment system of flood control measures
System,
Inside module
construction
Requirements analysis
of users and analysis of D/B, module, and
System, Damage
structural measures
Present status analysis
Module design
and establishment of plans of the system and
Investigation of
domestic and foreign
flood control
assessment system and
establishment of plans
2008
Framing the plans
for maintenance
and utilization
Estimation and
Economic module
construction
2011
module D/B design
2010
2009
Maintenance and
utilization
Flood control
assessment
system
1. Estimation flood discharge
2. Estimation flood stage at the
watch point(channel routing)
Yes
3. Bank height > flood stage ?
4. No Inundation
No
7. Inundation
8. Estimation of the flood area & depth
in the protected lowland
9. Estimation of the potential flood
damage(Multi-dimensional flood
damage analysis)
10. Repetition of the 1~9 procedures
with each flood control measures
11. Selection of the optimal measure
5. Protected lowland
flooding?
Yes
6. Potential
flood damage=0
 Classification for Local characteristic
Class
Criterion of applicaton
Application
Big city
City over millions
Seoul and 5 metropolitan
cities
Midium size
city
City under millions
GyeongGi province etc
Small city
Developed city from farming area
Jeju province
Farming
area
Area over 500 per/km^2 populaton
density
Mountain
area
Other area except farming area
 Human life damage in flood damage occurrence
Class
(per/ha)
Death
Injury
Big city
Midium
size city
Small city
Farming
area
Mountain
area
0.004
0.002
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
 Economic index research by the administrative district

Local GDP research
- Analysis results are not correct to use only
population for classification index
- Comprehensive indexes are population density
and per GDP
Population density
Per GDP
Dist.
(Million)
2005
2006
2007
2008
Seoul
20.87
21.97
23.59
24.48
Pusan
13.40
13.91
14.94
16.12
Daegu
11.47
12.18
13.06
13.59
Inchun
15.67
16.68
18.29
18.27
Gwangju
13.09
14.07
14.73
15.52
Daejun
13.64
14.09
14.92
15.81
Ulsan
38.97
40.22
44.51
48.62
Gyeonggi
15.95
16.71
17.54
17.76
Gangwon
15.46
16.31
17.67
18.10
Chungbuk
18.00
18.86
20.22
20.30
Chungnam
24.76
26.64
28.48
29.96
Joenbuk
13.88
14.74
16.14
16.88
Jeonnam
23.12
23.06
26.03
29.59
Gyeongbuk
23.29
23.66
24.28
26.16
Gyeongnam
18.74
19.81
22.13
23.93
Jeju
14.71
14.90
16.04
16.42
 The spread of population & life expectancy investigation by
administrative district

Use for casualty loss amount estimation
Dist.
Average age
Woman
Man
Population
Man
Woman
Ave.
Life exp.
Seoul
34.6
36.3
35.5
4,837,112
4,925,434
45.8
Pusan
35.5
38.0
36.7
1,735,860
1,776,687
42.1
Daegu
33.8
36.5
35.2
1,227,168
1,228,848
44.3
Inchun
33.4
35.1
34.2
1,262,612
1,255,068
45.3
Gwangju
32.3
34.3
33.3
701,265
712,379
46.5
Daejun
32.8
34.7
33.8
720,734
717,817
46.5
Ulsan
32.2
34.1
33.1
538,031
506,903
45.6
Gyeonggi
33.0
34.6
33.8
5,192,007
5,148,999
46.3
Gangwon
36.3
39.3
37.8
733,266
727,504
41.4
Chungbuk
35.2
38.2
36.7
730,084
723,788
42.5
Chungnam
36.3
39.4
37.8
945,540
933,877
41.8
Joenbuk
36.2
39.8
38.0
874,662
904,217
41.5
Jeonnam
37.8
42.3
40.1
889,805
925,369
39.4
Gyeongbuk
36.5
40.5
38.5
1,292,673
1,302,046
40.9
Gyeongnam
34.6
38.0
36.3
1,521,110
1,519,883
42.4
Jeju
33.5
37.1
35.3
263,721
266,965
45.1
-
-
-
23,465,650
23,575,784
 The spread of population & life expectancy investigation by
Pop.
Dist.
Death
Injury
Victim
administrative district
density

Estimation of Casualty loss amount
- Death + Injury+ Victim loss amount
- Death loss amount = Flooding area(㏊) ×
Death rate of flooding area(per/㏊) × life
expectancy(yr) × per GDP
- Injury loss amount = Flooding area(㏊) ×
Injury rate of flooding area(per/㏊) × life
expectancy(yr) × per GDP/ 2
(Million)
loss
loss
loss
Seoul
955.8
477.9
0.5718
16231.7
Pusan
564.1
282.1
0.3671
4612.0
Daegu
508.1
254.1
0.3142
2787.9
Inchun
709.9
354.9
0.4293
2546.6
Gwangju
608.7
304.3
0.3586
2829.8
Daejun
634.3
317.1
0.3737
2672.0
Ulsan
1777.0
888.5
1.0677
992.6
Gyeonggi
738.5
369.2
0.4370
1028.1
Gangwon
640.0
320.0
0.4236
88.2
765.0
382.5
0.4932
196.5
1035.0
517.5
0.6784
219.7
576.0
288.0
0.3803
221.5
Jeonnam
910.9
455.5
0.6334
150.7
Gyeongbuk
952.6
476.3
0.6381
137.1
Gyeongna
m
794.6
397.3
0.5134
290.5
Jeju
663.4
331.7
0.4030
287.8
- Victim loss amount = Flooding area(㏊) × Chungbuk
Chungnam
Victim rate of flooding area(per/㏊) ×
evacuation day(day) × per GDP / 365(day) Joenbuk
(per/㎢)
 Constuction to use various digital
map from GIS basis

Administrative district map

DEM(1/5,000, 1/25,000)

Land use map
Administrative district
- Use of satellite images
 Computation through space
information composition
Space
information
composition
Land use
×
Flooding area
×
Flooding depth
Rainfall estimation
Time distribution
Flood estimation
 Estimate
probabilistic rainfall
using established
analysis results such
as probable isohyetal
charts
 To use as the input of
hydrologic model to
simulate flood
aspects, the
probabilistic rainfall
needs to be timely
distributed
 Various hydrologic
models such as
HEC-HMS, HEC-1,
ILLUDAS, SWMM
could be used to
simulate streamflow
using the timely
distributed
probabilistic rainfall
 If it is not reliable or
available, estimate
the probabilistic
distribution of
rainfall
 The methods such as
Huff and Yen and
Chow could be
applied
 Hydrologic model
should be carefully
selected with the
features of applied
basins
 The procedure of estimating probabilistic precipitation
Meteorological data construction
Applying probabilistic distribution
Parameter estimation
Normal, Lognormal,
Gamma, Log-pearson
type III, GEV, Gubel,
Log-Gumbel, Weibull
Maximum likelihood,
Method of moments
Goodness of fit test
Selecting the optimum distribution
Colmogorov-Smirnov,
Cramer-von-Mises,
PPCC, x2
Estimating probabilistic precipitation
100-YEAR 1-HOUR RAINFALL
Time distribution
Huff,
Yen and
Chow
Runoff simulation using hydrologic model
Urban area
Natural area
Initial loss
 Proper values according to pervious
and impervious region
 NRCS method
Infiltration
 Horton equation for the rate curve of
infiltration capacity
 Green-Ampt, NRCS
 Horton equation for the rate curve of
infiltration capacity
 Green-Ampt, NRCS
Basin
data
Basin area
 Estimate with Topography(GIS), etc
 Estimate with Topography(GIS), etc
Impervious
area
Estimate separately
 Indirect application (When CN is
estimated)
Surface
runoff
Estimation
method
Storage equation, Kinematic wave,
etc
Clark, SCS, Snyder, Nakayasu, etc
Main
parameter
Basin length and slope
Surface roughness coefficient
Arrival and delay time
Storage coefficient
Uniqueness
 Separating basins according to
drainage system
 Separating basins according to
streams and main simulation points
Estimation
method
Kinematic wave
Diffusive wave
Hydrodynamic method, etc
Muskingum
Muskingum-Cunge
Kinematic wave, etc
Main
parameter
 length and slope of Channel and
sewer
 Roughness coefficient, etc
 Length and slope of channel
 Roughness coefficient
 Storage constant, etc
Uniqueness
 Pressured flow analysis for sewer full
of water
Open channel analysis
ILLUDAS, SWMM, etc
HEC-1, HEC-HMS, etc
Effective
rainfall
Channel
runoff
Models
(Ref. A guideline for the flood estimation of urban area, 2008)
Initial setup and inputs
Flood and damage estimation
Initial setup
Assets & maps
Flood simulation
Damage estimation
Currency unit(₩,$,.)
Area unit(m2, km2,.)
Load basin map
Set a flood
simulation method
Set the range of
assets to estimate
damage
Standards of
damage loss
- Actual recovery costs
- National
compensation costs
Socio-Economic analysis
Analysis
A
Set the range of
asset classifications
according to map
Create the tables of
assets
Input the tables or
Use default values
Create
cross
sections of
floodplain
Generate
HEC-RAS
input
B
Import
simulated
inundation
with each
flood
control
measures
Analyze the socioeconomic values of
flood control
measures
Run
HEC-RAS
Suggest the
optimum measures
A :Simulate flood inundation using HEC-RAS model
B : Import simulated inundation results from another
model available for an applied basin
Set an analysis
method
Generate floodplain
and depth grid
Estimate the
amount of loss for
each flood control
measures
 Model selection for the floodplain simulation
 Simplicity of the
model with the
equivalent reliability
 Familiarity with
used technique
 Running time
 Types of computers
 Availability of data
 Model support and
documentation
 River flood simulation using HEC-RAS

HEC-RAS is widely used and accepted in particular for floodplain
management and flood insurance studies (Karle, 2008)

HEC-RAS in the simulation of extreme glacial outburst flood is
accurate enough for general flood protection purpose (Alho et al.,
2008)

When more and more cross-sections were used, the simulation result
of HEC-RAS was more similar to FESWMS 2D model (Cook et al,
2008)

The HEC-RAS and TELEMAC-2D models perform equally well in
predicting the inundated area when calibrated, whereas the
performance of the LISFLOOD-FP model is dependent on the
calibration data used (Horritt et al., 2002)
 Floodplain treatment in HEC-RAS (Tayefi et al., 2007)
 To Extend the cross-section across the
full floodplain width
 To comprise a series of
discrete areas acting as
storage cells for floodplain
 Total damage from flood


The total amount of cost to be paid to recover the socio-economic
activities to the level possible if flood did not occur
Consisted of direct and potential damage
SocioEconomic
Activities
Total
damage
Potential damage
(Secondary damage)
Direct damage
(Primary damage)
Flood
occurrence
Time
 Direct damage (primary damage)



Destroyed constructions and agricultural area, damaged facilities and
products, and injured people
Recoverable Damage (RD)
- The cases of Constructions, facilities, and products that can be
reconstructed or produced through paying cost
- The standard of damage estimation is the cost to reconstruct and
replace the damaged stuffs
Non-Recoverable Damage (NRD)
- The cases of People, livestock, agricultural products that can not be
replaced by simply paying cost
- The standard of damage estimation in this case is the amount of loss
 Potential damage (secondary damage)


Damage During a Recovery period (DDR)
- Costs engendered during a recovery from such cases as the
interruption of production facilities, the inability of public facility,
and the traffic jams caused by destroyed roads
Damage After a Recovery period (DAR)
- As the example of a production facility deprived of buyers during a
recovery, some facilities could have loss for their profit even though
they have fully recovered for their facilities
 Additional cases of damage



Intangible damage (Grigg, 1975)
- Some categories of intangible damage are: environmental quality,
social well being, and aesthetic values
Uncertainty damage (Grigg, 1975)
- The loss from uncertainty damage is from the stress of the
occupants of a flood plain suffer because of the uncertainty with
regard to when flood will occur and how serious it will be
Both intangible and uncertainty damage can be categorized as
potential damage
 Procedure to estimate the flood damages by MD-FDA
 The asset values and the
ratio of each asset and
inundated depth are used for
estimating the amount of
damage
 Damage items are
categorized into structures
and contents in a residential
area, farmland and crops in
an agricultural area, tangible
assets and inventories in an
industrial area, public
facilities, and casualties
 Casualties



To estimate the number of death and
injury, the concept of ratio from the
Loss of death
number of death and injury per area
= death per area (n/m2)
is used
inundated area (m2)
The socio-economical loss of death is
loss per death ($/n)
the function of life expectancy and
GDP
The loss of injury is 50 % of the death according to the domestic
law of Korea. Thus the percent is flexible with the inherent
standards of a applied basin for the severity ratio of injury to death
The number of death and injury per flooded area
(Ref. A study on the Economic Analysis in Flood Control Projects, 2004)
(Unit: n/ha)
 Structural and agricultural damage
 Estimation of the destroyed building

Through considering the historical record which shows destruction
tendency of building for flood, the number of destroyed building for
simulated flood can be estimated


 Mountainous area
 Higher flood velocity could
be expected
 Historical record(2002/8)
Complete destruction 60
Half destruction
69
No destruction
0
There are similar flood velocity and depth if
the flooded location and area are the same
The number of destroyed building has a
linear correlation with the flooded area
 Urban area
 Lower flood velocity could
be expected
 Historical record(2002/8)
Complete destruction 12
Half destruction
14
No destruction
2,188
 Public facility damage

The damage ratio of public facilities to general assets is applied to
estimated the amount of public facility damage
The damage ratio of public facilities to general assets
Public
Road and
facility
bridge
Damage
rate
1.38
(Ref. A study
on the
Economic
Analysis in
Flood Control
Projects, 2004)
River
0.87
Public
facility
Damage
rate
Small
river
0.58
Railway
0.23
Water
and
Sewage
0.18
seawall
0.54
Port
Tank
facility
facility
0.02
0.01
Military
facility
0.42
Small
sized
facility
0.69
school
0.03
Other
facilities
0.108
Sum
6.01