Transcript Why Indian Families Need Electricity - Personal.psu.edu

Why India is Turning to Coal
Frank Clemente Ph.D.
Senior Professor of Social Science & Energy Policy
Penn State University
[email protected]
The Power of Coal: If India Did Not Use
More Coal
To meet projected demand, and replace projected incremental coal based electricity generation, India
would have to obtain more than 13 Tcf of NG, build 210 nuclear power plants or construct the equivalent of
400 Hoover Dams
1800
1,770
1,736
1,606
Electricity Generation in Billion kWh
1600
1400
1,586
1,509
1478
1478
1478
1478
1478
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
158
230
62
0
NG
111 17
Nuclear
Current Supply
100
Hydro
BAU Projected Supply
31
Oil
100
8
Renewables
Needed to Replace Coal
The Logic of India’s Continuing
Reliance on Coal
“There are no alternatives to hydrocarbons in the foreseeable future”
M.Economides, Professor of Engineering, University of Houston, 2008
“Access to electricity is strongly correlated with every measurable
indicator of human development” -Berkeley Science Review, 2008
“India has more people without adequate access to energy than any
country in the world” -National Resources Forum, 2008
“Removal of poverty is the greater immediate imperative than global
warming” P. Ghosh, Secretary of the Environment, India,2007
“Clean coal technology is one of the most promising routes for
mitigating emissions—India [will] benefit” IEA, 2007
The World Bank Agrees
● “India needs much more power in a short time frame to
continue its economic development.”
● “India still must rely on (coal) to meet growing demand”
● “Gas-based power is not a viable alternative …not
enough natural gas is available …and the power it
generates is too expensive”
● “Wind power still has limited reliability and its higher
cost …makes it unsustainable for meeting large scale
demand”
* July,2008
India Faces
Rampant Growth
1000
900
800
Index (1990= 100)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990
2005
2010
Electricity
2015
GDP
Coal
2020
Energy
2025
2030
5
The Context and Scale of Growth
By 2030
Growth
Current
1,506
21
1,891
33
156
372
17
1,229
17
139
1,134
4
662
16
17
Higher GDP
(Trillion $)
More Electricity
(Billion kWh)
More Energy
(Quad btu)
More Vehicles
(Millions)
More People
(Millions)
Coal is India’s only Energy Advantage
20.0%
% of Worlds Proved Reserves
18.0%
17.1%
16.0%
14.0%
“Coal is expected to be the
mainstay of power
generation in the years to
come” India’s 11th Five
Year Plan (2007-2012)
12.0%
10.2%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.5%
0.6%
0.8%
Oil
NG
Uranium
0.0%
Population
(1.15 Billion)
India’s Share of the World’s Energy Reserves
Coal
7
What Coal Conversion Will Do For India
 Electricity – consumption will nearly triple by 2030 to almost 2,800
terawatt hours (TWh).
 Liquid fuels – India will have over 150 million vehicles in 20 years.
 Natural Gas – demand will increase 170%.
 Dimethyl Ether (DME) – a completely sootless fuel that can greatly
reduce dependence on wood and dung in household cooking.
 Petrochemicals – ammonia, formaldehyde, ethylene, propylene,
methanol production will add significant value to Indian economy.
 Manufacturing – Energy sources to make iron and steel as well as
non-metallic goods, including cement and soda ash.
Coal is the Cornerstone of Energy in India
By 2030, the 1.5 billion people in India will depend
more on coal for energy than any country in the
world – except for the 1.5 billion people in China.
2005
Other fuel: 61%
Coal:
39%
2030
Other fuel
52%
Coal:
48%
Access to Electricity and the Quality of Life
People in Societies with Greater Access to Electricity:
Survive
Childhood
Live
Longer
Under Five
Death Rate/1000
Life Expectancy
(years)
Drink
Cleaner Water
Access to
Improved Sources
(%)
Eat
Better
Under Nourished
(%)
Are Better
Educated
Literacy
Rate (%)
10
Coal’s Track
Record in India
• Access to Electricity Increased 30%
• GDP Increased 124%
• Food Production Increased 27%
• Primary Grade Completion
Increased 31%
• U.N. Human Development Index
Increased 19%
Coal accounted for
70% of India’s
increase in electric
power generation
from 1990-2005
• Abject Poverty Decreased 10%
• Fertility Rate Declined 26%
• Undernourishment Fell 20%
• Malaria cases declined 12%
• Number of Illiterate Adults
reduced by 25%
The Scale of Latent Demand for Electricity in India
1000
900
800
Millions of People in India
917
Removal of poverty is the greater
immediate imperative than global
warming” P. Ghosh, Secretary of
the Environment, India
668
700
600
412
500
400
300
200
100
Equals
Population
of
USA
UK
Italy
Equals
Population
of
USA
UK
Italy
Germany
France
Japan
Equals
Population
of
the
Western
Hemisphere
0
No Electricity
Cook with Wood or Dung
No Refrigeration
Millions of People in India Toil in An Bleak World
We are at the beginning of the road: India’s Electricity
Consumption per Capita Compared to Other Nations
8,795
Kilo Watt hours Consumed per Capita
9000
8000
6,425
7000
6000
5000
4000
2,130
3000
1,684
2000
618
1000
0
India
Source: United Nations
China
Mexico
Russia
OECD
India Will Increasingly Rely Upon Coal for Electricity Generation
2,774
Generation in Terawatt Hours
3000
2500
2000
1,322
1500
699
1000
289
500
0
1990
2005
2015
2030
Year
Coal
Hydro
NG
Nuclear
Other
Using Dimethyl Ether (DME) from
Coal as a household cooking fuel
will save millions of lives
 DME derived from coal is a highly efficient fuel for cleaner
household cooking
 DME is soot free gas, with reduced Nox and Sox emissions
 DME from coal could replace harmful dung and wood cooking,
reducing both morbidity and mortality rates
 DME from coal could replace LPG, a common cooking fuel which
fluctuates with world oil prices
See: Larson and Young, Energy for Sustainable Development, 2004; and Goldberg et.al, Energy for Sustainable Development, 2004
Why Indian families need more DME from coal
1.
668 million Indians still rely on wood or dung for cooking
2.
The concentration of particulate matter in household air is 2,000
microgrammes per m3 - compared to 150 in U.S.
3.
Women and children are especially impacted and account for 400,000
premature deaths per year
4.
Household use of biofuels accounts for about one fifth of the blindness in
India
“2.5 million women and children in developing countries
die prematurely from breathing the fumes from biomass
stoves” (World Health Organization, 2007)
The Search for a Better Life: India’s Five Year
Plan’s Goals Confront Stark Reality
Goal in the Five Year Plan
Current Situation
Reduce poverty by 10%
360 Million people earn less than a dollar
per day
Lower the gender gap in literacy
52% of Women cannot read
Reduce infant mortality rate
Infant mortality rate of 56 Compared to 4
in Germany
Provide clean drinking water
140 Million people have no improved
water supply
Ensure electricity connection to all
villages
380 Million rural residents lack electricity