Transcript national accounts statistics - United Nations Statistics Division

PURPOSE
 PROVIDE A COMPLETE AND CONSISTENT
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR
MEASURING THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF
A NATION.
 MONITOR ECONOMY PROFARMANCE
 ENABLING INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON
 ADOPTING CONCEPTS AND FRAMES FOR
THE ECONOMIC STATISTICS
FRAMEWORK
 Regular Activities:
GDP by industrial origin
-Current price
- Constant prices
GDP by Expenditure categories at (CP)
Sectoral Composition of GDP
Annual percentage change
GDP implicit deflator
 Other Activities
Definitions, and classifications
• Currently, the national accounts estimates
follow the concepts, definitions, and
classifications of the SNA 1993, as the
basic data availability permit.
Compilation approaches
i.
PRODUCTION APPROACH
ii.
EXPENDITURE APPROACH
ESTIMATION OF GDP
GDP(FC): Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
is the value of all goods and services
produced at factor cost (FC) in the economy
during a particular period .
GDP (MP) = GDP (FC) +Net Indirect taxes
Compilation Period
GDP estimates are compiled annually on
the Solar year basis ending March 20,
e.g. for the year 1387 the covered period
is from 21 March 2008 to 20 March 2009.
The GDP estimates are published once a
year in the Afghanistan Statistical
Yearbook.
Prices
• All the producers’ prices (PR) are based on CPI
survey.
The percentage different between
farmer and market (mainly profit margin,
transportation cost, and taxes) prices are
determined for each item (between 15-30%
depend on the goods and the distances). The
annual percentage change in consumer price
index (CPI) of each item in food (more than 100
items) is used for the annual change in
producers’ prices.
Agriculture
• Agriculture is the most important
sector in the economy with more than
80% of population actively involved in
it. Due to the high level of subsistence
farming in Afghanistan.
CROPS
Major crops:
Rice, Wheat, barely , Sugarcane, Sugar
beet Maize, etc.
Minor crops:
Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds,
potatoes , etc.
Intermediate
Consumption
:
Sources:
Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water,
Transport Charges, etc.
Gross Value
Added:
The production approach is used to
arrive at value added.
Provincial Agriculture & MOA,WFP
&FAO (FAAM),
LIVESTOCK
Composition:
Cattle and their products
Poultry and their products
Intermediate
Consumption:
Roughages (green and dry),
Concentrates (Grains, Oilcakes),
Grass & Grazing, salt, Medicines, etc.
Sources:
Livestock Ministry of Agriculture , FAO
WFP etc.
Gross Value
Added:
The production approach is used to
arrive at value added.
FORESTRY
Composition:
Intermediate
Consumption:
Sources:
Gross Value
Added:
Forestry and logging includes
1) logging, 2) charcoal, and 3)
firewood
Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc.
Ministry of Agriculture
The production approach is used to
arrive at value added.
MINING & QUARRYING
Composition:
Intermediate
Consumption:
Sources:
Gross
Value
Added:
Mining and quarrying cover the
extracting and preparation for further
processing of coal, natural gas, salt,
sand, stone, gold, Birit, Chon precious
stone gash,
Ratio of IC/GO
Ministry of Mine and Economics
Statistics Departments.
The production approach is used to
arrive at value added.
LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING
Composition:Manufacturing in Afghanistan are mainly Food,
beverages, and tobacco, Textile, wood
production, paper products ,etc.
Sources:
The Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Light
Industry, and Ministry of Commerce
provide manufacturing production and
producer prices data for public and
private enterprises
CONSTRUCTION
Construction consists modern construction in public
sector ,rehabilitation, project in progress, and new
projects, modern private sector and traditional
construction.
Data sources : ED collects data from Ministry of Public
Work, Ministry of Finance, private sector construction
and others. Data for traditional construction are derived
based on population census, number of household, and
cost a typical house in rural area.
IC: 55% ratio
VA: Production approach
ELECTRICITY, GAS DISTRIBUTION &
WATER SUPPLY
Composition:
This group include the generation of
hydro—power, and the transmission, of
electricity, the manufacture of gas ,natural
gas, production and distribution of water .
Intermediate
Fuels, Oil, Gas, Water, etc.
Consumption:
Sources:
Gross
Value
Added:
The main source of data for this group is
Ministry of Industry and Electricity .
The production approach is used to
arrive at value added.
TRANSPORT, STORAGE &
COMMUNICATION
Composition: Air transport, land Transport and
communication.
Sources:
Gross
Value
Added:
Ministries of Transportation and
communication Economy dept ,of CSO
and National Accounts ad-hoc survey.
production approach
FINANCE & INSURANCE
Composition:
Finance sector covers ,monetary institutions,
other financial institutions and Insurance.
Monetary institutions include Central Bank,
commercial banks and other private banks.
Sources:
from Money Exchange Association, DAB,
CSO and Insurance CO.
Gross
Value
Added:
The production approach is used to
arrive at value added.
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE
Composition:
Sources:
Value
Added:
Wholesale and retail trade is estimated on
the basis of assumption on domestic goods
production and imports
Data sources and methodologies: Base on
interview of traders:
40% of agriculture
70% of industry production
50% of exports and 80% of imports are for
wholesale and retail trade
Total value of trade margins applied on the
marketed portions of Agriculture and
Industrial Output as well as Imports.
OWNERSHIP OF DWELLINGS
Coverage:
Sources:
Value Added:
Housing Units (rented as well as
self occupied) and in urban and
rural areas
From the population, pre housing
list survey of average prices of
dwelling, their average economic
life, and the rent price index in the
CPI
Production Approach
Expenditure approach
• Total final consumption expenditure is the sum of
private and government consumption.
Government consumption data are drawn directly
from the national budget .
• Currently only current prices of GDP by
expenditure are estimated by indirect method of
carry over the GDP from production side and
making the private consumption (or final
consumption expenditure of household) as residual
including data discrepancies and change in stocks.
Surveys needed :
• National Risk and Vulnerability Survey
• Census of Agriculture
• Integrated Business Establishment Survey
• Census of Establishments
• Small-scale survey on Agriculture
• Expanded Consumer Price Survey
Future Plan
 Use the upcoming result of the Integrated
Business Enterprise Survey (IBES) to improve
basic data for NA.
 Plan to compile the integrated economic
accounts .
 Improve 1993 SNA
 Develop Sequent account
 Institutional units
 Other recommendation of SNA93/2008
Technical assistance
Experienced expert to
review the system and
make plan for future
M. Ibrahim Naimi
Head of N.A,and Price Statistics Dept.