Transcript LAC-KLEMS
LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach to Evaluate the Economic and Social Impact of ICT in Latin America Nanno Mulder – ECLAC Outline - Introduction & background - Recent growth accounting research - LAC-KLEMS proposal Background – Low economic growth since 1980s … – … although from 2003 to 2007 growth accelerated to above 4% … – … and employment grew and unemployment fell – … while investment increased Average per capita GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is over 3% per year between 2003 and 2009 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH RATES (Percentages) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 1960 1957 1954 1951 1948 -5% No similar growth period has been seen for 40 years Growth is accompanied by an improvement in labour market indicators LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Employment rate (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis) 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 6.0 2002 50.0 2001 7.0 2000 51.0 1999 8.0 1998 52.0 1997 9.0 1996 53.0 1995 10.0 1994 54.0 1993 11.0 1992 55.0 1991 12.0 1990 56.0 - Introduction & background - Recent growth accounting research - LAC-KLEMS proposal Growth accounting research on LAC Research has been done on macro-performance using growth accounts (e.g. Elías, 1992; Hofman, 2000; many national studies) • But little analysis on role of sectors in economic growth and importance of ICT (e.g. Coremberg, 2004 and de Vries, Mulder, dal Borgo and Hofman, 2007) Source: Aravena, Jofré y Villareal (forthcoming) Source: Aravena, Jofré y Villareal (forthcoming) Source: De Vries, Mulder & Hofman (forthcoming) Role of mobile communications in growth • Project with Internet Interdisciplinary Institute (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya) & Telefonica • Goals Measurement of investment and prices of mobile communications using “microdata” Measurement of contribution of mobile services to productivity in Latin America Period: October 08 – April 09 - Introduction & background - Recent growth accounting research - LAC-KLEMS proposal Why LAC-KLEMS? • Little knowledge on MFP at industry level; hypothesis of strong heterogeneity • Same it true for meso impact of ICT • Major shifts in labor market (skilled-unskilled) Therefore difficult to define, implement and evaluate policies related to ICT and productivity World-KLEMS • KLEMS is already applied in European Union (Un. of Groningen), USA (Harvard University) and Japan • Similar efforts now under way in China, India, amongst others • In Latin American context: LAC-KLEMS (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) LAC-KLEMS objectives are to study • economic growth and productivity at industry level • capital formation and technological change at industry level • Role of ICT in growth and productivity • Role of labour and human skills in growth and changes in the sectoral composition of the economy Project outcomes • Two types of deliverables: – Analytical database by sector and factor inputs comparable across countries in Latin America and elsewhere; complying with highest quality standards – Statistical module, data consistent with those published by NSIs; deviations from these standard rules should at least be supported by the NSIs. Three phases (36 months) (a) Growth and Productivity Accounts: – Supply-use tables covering output and inputs – Labor accounts - quantity (hours) and quality (gender, age and skill level) by industry – Capital accounts: investment by asset and industry, capital service estimates by industry (user costs) – Construction of database Project outcomes (b) Methodological research on measurement of: • output and inputs • education attainment • capital services, following SNA 1993 recommendations. … adjust concepts and measurement to reality of Latin America • General characteristics: role of informal sector, volatility • Capital: include land and other natural resources? Project outcomes (cont.) (c) Analysis of LAC-KLEMS database • productivity, production structures • technology and innovation indicators • labor market - skill complementarities • technological progress (innovation) Consortium members • Coordinator: ECLAC Santiago, Chile • Regional members: Argentina: ECLAC Buenos Aires INDEC Brazil: Federal University or Rio de Janeiro IBGE Chile: ECLAC Stgo. and INE Mexico: to be defined and INEGI External advisors • Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen (coordinator WORLDKLEMS) • Institute of Economic Research of Valencia (IVIE), Spain • Harvard University (Prof. Dale Jorgenson) • OECD (Paul Schreyer) LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach to Evaluate the Economic and Social Impact of ICT in Latin America [email protected] [email protected]