Transcript China

Structural Transformation and
Innovation Systems:
industrial dynamics and innovation systems
(a value added approach)
Prof. Luciano G. Coutinho
Prof. Mariano Laplane
NEIT/IE - UNICAMP
Globelics: BRICS – Workshop
Aalborg February 2006
BRICS portrait: population, area, density,
total and per capita domestic product
Population
total 2004
thousands
Nominal GDP 2004
Area
2
km
Density
inhabitants
2
per km
total
per capita
Brazil
183.913
8.547.403
22
593.091
3.225
Mexico
105.699
1.958.201
54
676.148
6.397
China*
1.285.342
9.560.961
134 1.895.000
1.474
India
1.087.124
3.287.263
331
680.682
626
47.645
99.268
480
679.675
14.266
143.899 17.075.400
8
582.319
4.047
39
212.777
4.507
Republic of Korea
Russian Federation
South Africa
47.208
1.221.037
* revised.
Source: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics, 2005.
2/41
BRICS and selected countries:
Gini index/ social unequality
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Mexico
Korea, Rep.
USA
Japan
Most recent data
59.3
31.0
32.5
44.7
57.8
54.6
31.6
40.8
24.9
Source: UNDP
Is the highly unevenly distributed income a serious development
problem for Brazil and South Africa? Is China increasing social
unequality a problem for the future?
3/41
BRICS growth performance in the last 25
years: as well known...
• China is the world’s fastest growing economy in the
last 25 years, with a very high investment rate
• Brazil’s economy has shown an irregular and
mediocre performance, well bellow its potential
• India: since the nineties GDP is growing quite well
and more regularly; however it can do better
• Russia: after the deep crisis of the nineties
(disorganization of the state-socialist economy) oil
prices have helped an economic recovery
4/41
BRICS growth performance in the last 25
years: as well known...
• South Africa: GDP growth performance has
improved slowly, however well bellow its potential as
investment lags behind
• Korea: GDP growth is high in per-capita terms and
its per-capita income has approached the level of a
developed economy
• Mexico: plugged to the US economy it shows a
relatively weak performance, below its potential
5/41
Annual average growth rates of
total real GDP (%)
1980-89
1990-00
2001-04
Brazil
3,1
2,9
1,8
Mexico
0,8
3,1
1,7
Rep. of Korea
8,5
5,8
4,6
China
10,6
10,4
8,8
India
5,7
6,0
6,1
-
-4,7
6,1
1,4
2,1
3,2
Russia
South Africa
Source: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics, 2005.
6/41
BRICS: gross fixed capital formation
(% GDP), 1970-2003
Brazil
China
India
Russia
South Africa
World
1970-79 1990-99 2000-2003
21.7
19.5
20.5
27.0
33.2
39.2
15.8
22.3
22.4
na
20.8
17.6
26.4
16.3
14.8
24.4
22.1
21.1
Source: NEIT-IE-UNICAMP from BIRD’s World Development indicators
7/41
Industrial performance and growth
• China: spectacular GDP growth is certainly related to
the high competitiveness of its manufacturing system
• Brazil, Russia, South Africa: manufacturing has lost
relative importance and weight; international
competitiveness has faltered…
• India: manufacturing has grown, on average, at the
same pace of GDP
Question: is an improvement of manufacturing’s
competitiveness an important factor for
long term growth?
8/41
BRICS: manufacturing value added
(% GDP), 1993 and 2003
Brazil
Russia
1993
20.5
22.8
2003
18.6
22.5
China
India
South Africa
Developed
Developing
32.8
14.7
18.9
18.9
22.7
37.6
15.6
18.0
19.0
22.8
Var 1993-2003
-9.3
-1.3
14.6
6.1
-4.8
0.5
0.4
Source: UNIDO
9/41
Growth and competitiveness
• East-Asian economies have grabbed an additional 13
percentage points of world trade in the last 25 years
• China’s performance is, by far, the more dynamic
• Brazil’s share of world exports has stagnated (with a
slight recent improvement)
• India has also shown some moderate improvement
from a low start basis
• South Africa has lost relative importance in world
exports
• Russia’s recent improvement related to oil and gas
price boom
Apparently, global competitiveness has been
a key factor for fast growth
10/41
Evolution of market share of world
merchandise exports
Developed Countries
Value of Exports
1980
1990
2003
65,3
72,0
64,8
Developing Countries
. Latin America+ Caribbean
. Brazil
. Mexico
. Developing Asia
. West Asia
. Russia
. South Asia
. India
. East Asia
. China
. Rep. of Korea
. Africa
.South Africa
29,5
5,5
1,0
0,9
18,0
9,9
0,7
0,4
7,1
0,9
0,9
5,9
1,3
24,3
4,1
0,9
1,2
16,9
3,9
0,8
0,5
12,0
1,8
1,9
3,2
0,7
32,1
5,0
1,0
2,2
24,7
4,1
1,8
1,1
0,8
19,4
5,8
2,6
2,4
0,5
33,5
5,1
1,1
2,1
25,8
4,4
2,0
1,1
0,8
20,1
6,4
2,8
2,5
0,5
Memo: PED's excl. first-tier NIEs and China
24,8
14,8
16,8
17,4
Country
Source: UNCTAD
2004
63,1
11/41
BRICS’ share in world manufacturing
value added (1993-2003)
• China has doubled its share in global manufacturing
(in value added terms)
• India’s manufacturing share grew but its relative size
is yet small
• Brazil and Russia: their manufacturing systems
have lost share in the world economy; however some
improvement is taking place after 2003
• South Africa’s share in global manufacturing has
stagnated
12/41
BRICS and selected countries: share in
world manufactured value added,
1993 and 2003
Brazil
Mexico
Korea, Rep.
China
India
Russia
South Africa
1993
2.5
1.0
2.2
3.5
0.9
2.0
0.5
2003
2.1
1.1
3.4
6.9
1.2
1.6
0.5
USA
Japan
21.2
22.4
23.3
18.2
Var 1993-2003
-16.0
10.0
54.5
97.1
33.3
-20.0
0.0
9.9
-18.8
Source: UNIDO
13/41
BRICS manufactured value added per capita
(95’ constant US$), 1993 and 2003
Var 1993-2003
(%)
1993
2003
Brazil
China
India
838
157
50
850
388
82
1.4
147.1
64.0
Russia
724
792
9.4
South Africa
681
749
10.0
4,784
239
5,710
356
19.4
49.0
Developed
Developing
The evolution of manufacturing productivity seems to be
in line with overall growth performance in manufacturing
14/41
Competitiveness in manufacturing high tech
products seems to be a relevant driver of fast
growth and yet an even more important factor
for a strong export record
• China has almost quadrupled its share of world’s
high tech production. It has surpassed Korea and is
now equivalent to Japan!
• India has shown important advance but her share
in high tech products is still small
• Brazil and Russia: have shown a stagnant
performance in world’s manufacturing of high tech
products
• South Africa’s presence in high tech is quite small
15/41
BRICS and selected countries: share in
world high-tech products exports (%),
1993 and 2003
BRICS
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Mexico
Korea, Rep.
USA
Japan
World
1993
2.7
0.4
0.5
0.2
1.5
na
1.2
2.8
18.1
13.7
100.0
2003
8.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
7.0
0.1
2.0
4.0
13.3
7.5
100.0
Var 1993-2003
217.8
1.1
-11.0
100.9
359.3
75.9
42.0
-26.6
-45.4
-
Source: NEIT-IE-UNICAMP from UNCTAD primary data
16/41
BRICS and selected countries: high-tech
products share in countries’ total exports
(%), 1993 and 2003
BRICS
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Mexico
Korea, Rep.
USA
Japan
World
1993
11.5
9.7
8.3
8.1
15.0
na
19.9
30.4
35.0
34.1
24.1
2003
24.3
12.2
7.3
13.6
34.0
10.0
26.0
43.2
39.0
33.6
28.8
Var 1993-2003
111.0
26.3
-13.0
67.3
126.9
30.2
42.2
11.3
-1.5
19.9
Source: NEIT-IE-UNICAMP from UNCTAD primary data
17/41
Growing importance of high-tech sectors in
China’s economy (“two tunnels” strategy)
• China’s industrial system has diversified extraordinarily
in the last 25 years: it has a very large intermediate
goods base (steel, cement, petrochemicals) and a very
large non-durable consumption goods sector. In recent
years the development of durable consumption goods
and of high-tech sectors (computers, consumer
electronics, etc.) has speeded up
• High-tech products already accounts for 36% of
Chinese exports (2005)
• Employment in high-tech sectors is growing fast and
has accounted for 19% of the total in 2002
18/41
Growing importance of high-tech sectors in
China’s economy (“two tunnels” strategy)
• China has escalated R&D expenditures from 0,6% of
GDP in the mid nineties to almost 1,9% last year
• Enrollment in high education (specially in
engineering) has expanded very rapidly, as well as
students pursuing graduate studies abroad (circa 150
thousand)
• China’s recent record in global patent applications is
impressive
19/41
China: manufacturing employment (% total
manufacturing employment), 2002
ISIC (Revision 2)
Food products
Beverages
Tobacco
Textiles
Wearing apparel,except footwear
Leather products
Wood products,except furniture
Furniture,except metal
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Industrial chemicals
Petroleum refineries
Rubber and Plastics products
Pottery,china,earthenware
Glass and products
Other non-metallic mineral prod.
Iron and steel
Non-ferrous metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery,except electrical
Machinery electric
Transport equipment
Professional & scientific equipm.
Other manufactured products
Source: UNIDO
China
6.0
2.0
0.5
10.6
5.9
3.1
1.1
0.8
2.6
1.2
10.1
1.2
4.3
1.5
1.0
6.1
5.3
2.3
3.9
9.8
10.4
6.6
1.3
2.4
20/41
Selected countries: R&D expenditures
(%/GDP), 1996 and 2001
1996
Brazil
0.77
Mexico
0.31
Korea, Rep.
2.60
China
0.60
India
na
Russia
0.90
South Africa
na
Japan
2.77
USA
2.55
World
2.06
Source: NEIT-IE-UNICAMP from BIRD’s
2001
Var 1996-2001
1.05
36.0
0.34
11.2
2.96
13.7
1.09
82.4
na
1.16
na
3.09
11.4
2.80
9.9
2.46
19.5
World Development Indicators
21/41
Selected countries: enrollment in high
education as a % of the total,
1990 and 2000
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Korea, Rep.
USA
Japan
Mexico
World
1990
11,2
52,1
6,1
3,0
13,2
38,6
75,2
29,6
14,5
16,0
2000
16,2
62,8
10,6
12,7
14,6
77,6
70,7
47,7
20,5
23,9
Var 1990-2000
44,0
20,5
74,6
326,6
10,4
101,1
-6,0
61,1
41,1
49,9
Source: NEIT-IE-UNICAMP from BIRD’s World Development Indicators
22/41
BRICS and selected countries: stock of
patent applications, residents, 2001
Brazil
Mexico
Korea, Rep.
China
India
Russia
South Africa
USA
Japan
World
Number
6,706
594
74,001
30,324
234
25,046
175
190,907
388,390
939,267
%
0.7
0.1
7.9
3.2
0.0
2.7
0.0
20.3
41.4
100.0
23/41
Comparison of manufacturing structures
• Whereas the share of high-tech sectors in manufacturing
(value added) ranges between 14% and 17% (automotivecomplex included) in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa it
has attained circa 35% in the case of China
• By the same token, employment in high-tech sectors varies
around 8,5% of the total manufacturing employment (for
Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) whereas in China it
represents 19%
• If the automotive-complex is excluded the share of
employment in high-tech sector (to Brazil, Russia, India and
South Africa) would vary from 2,6% to 5,5% of the total
24/41
Comparison of manufacturing structures
• Relative shares of so-called “traditional” consumer-goods
manufacturing (e.g. food and beverages, tobacco, textiles
and wearing apparel, leather products and footware) are
higher in Brazil, India, Russia and South Africa
• On the other hand, the relative shares of natural resourcebased and of primary commodity-based manufacturing is
quite different among the BRICS, reflecting different
geography and natural endownments
25/41
BRICS: manufacturing structure
(share in countries’ MVA), 2002
ISIC
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Description
Food and beverages
Tobacco products
Textiles
Wearing apparel, fur
Leather, leather products and footwear
Wood products (excl. furniture)
Paper and paper products
Printing and publishing
Coke,refined petroleum products,nuclear fuel
Chemicals and chemical products
Rubber and plastics products
Non-metallic mineral products
Basic metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and equipment n.e.c.
Office, accounting and computing mach.
Electrical machinery and apparatus
Radio,television and communication equip.
Medical, precision and optical instruments
Motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers
Other transport equipment
Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
Source: UNIDO
Brazil India S. Africa
13.5
8.7
14.8
0.8
0.6
1.7
2.6
6.9
2.0
1.7
0.7
2.5
0.9
1.0
0.8
3.7
0.1
2.8
2.8
2.3
4.5
2.2
1.7
3.1
12.8
5.2
5.1
11.1 21.3
11.1
3.7
3.1
3.8
4.6
5.4
3.2
4.5 10.4
13.8
8.3
2.6
7.4
5.6
6.4
6.3
1.3
0.7
1.6
2.7
7.8
1.4
3.4
1.5
1.3
2.2
0.8
0.4
4.3
6.9
8.7
5.1
5.8
1.4
2.4
0.2
2.2
World
10.5
0.7
2.1
1.5
0.5
1.9
3.0
4.5
3.1
10.5
3.4
3.6
5.2
5.9
6.9
4.5
6.2
9.8
2.4
8.1
2.5
3.2
26/41
BRICS: manufacturing employment
(% total manufacturing employment), 2002
ISIC (Revision 3)
Food and beverages
Tobacco products
Textiles
Wearing apparel, fur
Leather, leather products and footwear
Wood products (excl. furniture)
Paper and paper products
Printing and publishing
Coke,refined petroleum products,nuclear fuel
Chemicals and chemical products
Rubber and plastics products
Non-metallic mineral products
Basic metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and equipment n.e.c.
Office, accounting and computing machinery
Electrical machinery and apparatus
Radio,television and communication equipment
Medical, precision and optical instruments
Motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers
Other transport equipment
Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
Recycling
Source: UNIDO
Brazil Russia India S. Africa
19.8 14.7 17.4
13.8
0.3
0.2
6.6
0.2
5.2
3.7 15.7
5.3
7.9
2.8
4.2
9.6
6.9
1.0
1.9
1.5
4.0
3.8
0.7
6.1
2.7
1.5
2.2
3.2
3.6
2.0
1.5
4.8
0.5
1.2
0.9
1.0
5.7
6.0 10.1
7.8
5.3
2.2
3.6
5.5
5.4
6.9
6.2
3.3
3.1
7.7
7.2
7.6
6.1
4.0
3.6
4.8
6.6 16.3
5.4
5.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
2.6
2.9
3.0
6.2
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.0
2.8
0.8
0.4
5.2
5.4
3.3
5.9
1.0
1.3
2.2
1.0
5.2
1.9
1.7
5.4
0.2
0.7
0.0
0.1
27/41
Different manufacturing profiles
• Russia: a very strong defense-related industrial complex,
specially in aeronautics & space; a large production-base in
non-electric machinery and equipment; a powerful
manufacturing complex related to oil and gas
• Brazil: a broad set of competitive natural-resource-based
and agricultural-based manufacturing (steel, non ferrous
metals, pulp and paper, wood products, sugar and ethanol,
orange juice, soya-derivates, coffee); a fairly diversified
durable-consumption goods industry; one leading firm in the
aeronautic sector
28/41
Different manufacturing profiles
• India: a very large service-economy, her manufacturing
capability is relatively small and concentrated in basic nondurable consumption goods (textiles and wearing apparel,
food and beverages); with the exception of a strong
chemical and chemical products-complex the base of
intermediate goods production is relatively small, as well
as the automotive-complex
• South Africa: has a powerful mineral resource-based
industry (steel and non-ferrous metals) and her
manufacturing system is concentrated in non-durable
consumption goods (food and beverages, tobacco, textiles
and apparel); relatively strong in the automotive sector
29/41
Innovation and S&T Systems
• Russia: strong position in high education, with a
powerful scientific system particularly dedicated to space
and defense-related activities; expanding R&D
expenditures and patent activities are related to the
former specializations
• India: an expanding scientific system with good quality
but very weak in industrial R&D (and patenting);
employment of highly qualified human resources biased
towards services (IT related)
• Brazil: an improving scientific system (with good
international rating); R&D activities are very uneven and
concentrated, with some success cases (like in
agribusiness) patent activity is weak; some key sectoral
innovation systems have been disintegrated in the
nineties
30/41
Innovation and S&T Systems
• South Africa: very weak R&D and industrial innovation
activities; limited scientific capability
• China: a remarkable effort in building up a national
scientific and technological innovation system as a
purposeful strategy; R&D activities growing at a very fast
pace given the increasing economic importance of hightech sectors
31/41
BRICS: recent export performance with
remarkable improvement of foreign
exchange position
• China’s large trade surplus derived from her highly
competitive performance in manufacturing exports and…
• Very favourable terms of trade (prices of oil, metals and
other commodities) in last three years have helped Brazil,
South Africa, Russia and India to strengthen their
foreign exchange position
Question: could this recently gained foreign exchange
robustness help to put in place new national
development strategies? Or could it result in
indulgence (in relation to current performance
and to the historical record)?
32/41
Recent external robustness
Reserves/external debt (%)
China
Korea, Rep.
India
Russia
Mexico
South Africa
Brazil
2000
115,5
64,7
35,6
13,9
23,9
16,5
15,2
2001
126,7
78,6
45,4
19,4
31,0
19,6
17,1
2002
172,5
84,3
60,7
25,9
35,9
18,1
18,0
2003
210,8
98,2
85,1
36,6
42,0
17,5
22,9
2004
275,6
120,4
99,2
55,7
43,7
36,0
26,3
2005p
317,5
133,2
110,0
85,7
47,3
38,8
32,1
2006p
323,8
140,8
115,5
103,6
49,3
40,9
35,1
2001
0,55
0,70
0,82
1,39
1,74
0,82
3,61
2002
0,45
0,72
0,79
1,34
1,52
0,85
3,49
2003
0,39
0,67
0,78
1,22
1,36
0,78
2,94
2004
0,32
0,55
0,67
1,02
1,16
0,81
2,09
2005p
0,27
0,47
0,59
0,82
1,00
0,86
1,42
2006p
0,24
0,42
0,55
0,81
0,87
0,88
1,28
External debt/exports (%)
China
Korea, Rep.
Mexico
Russia
India
South Africa
Brazil
2000
0,50
0,70
0,80
1,46
1,75
0,93
3,94
Source: JP Morgan, Consensus Forecasts and projections.
33/41
Recent external robustness
External debt service/exports
Korea, Rep.
China
South Africa
Mexico
India
Russia
Brazil
2000
4,2
8,3
6,1
14,8
19,4
8,0
84,8
2001
4,6
7,7
5,2
16,0
18,3
10,9
86,1
2002
1,9
5,4
4,7
13,0
16,5
9,4
73,3
2003
1,3
4,6
4,0
9,4
17,1
8,8
55,0
2004
1,8
3,8
4,5
12,5
11,8
7,0
48,3
2005p
1,5
3,1
4,5
6,7
11,2
13,6
39,3
2006p
1,4
2,9
4,5
5,1
10,2
12,1
30,6
Source: JP Morgan, Consensus Forecasts and projections.
34/41
Are there domestic financial constraints?
• Brazil and Russia: their banking systems had
retracted but can they expand in order to finance capital
formation? How can the capital market help?
Issues: how to create reliable institutional conditions
and juridical protection for investors,
creditors and for securitized assets?
• China: how to cope with the low risk-standards of the
banking system? Is there a role for the capital market?
• India: how to enhance the contributions of both (bank
credit and capital market)?
• South Africa: is everything fine? What is lacking to
accelerate private investment?
35/41
Financial Structure: outstanding domestic
debt securities, stock market capitalization
and bank credit, 2004
% GDP
Government
Securities
Emerging Markets
Africa
South Africa
Asia
China
Hong Kong SAR
India
Korea
Europe
Russia
Latin America
Brazil
Chile
Mexico
25,3
32,1
32,1
22,3
17,4
9,6
34,2
22,8
26,9
3,3
28,9
44,7
19,6
22,6
Financial
Institutions
8,4
5,0
5,0
13,4
11,1
15,1
0,2
31,5
0,5
5,3
10,8
10,2
0,8
Corporate
Issuers
4,6
5,8
5,8
6,9
0,7
3,5
0,4
21,1
1,0
1,5
2,6
0,6
11,3
2,7
Total
Stock Market
Outstanding Capitalization
38,1
42,8
42,8
42,6
29,3
28,2
34,8
75,5
27,7
3,3
36,8
56,2
41,0
26,1
61,2
186,5
186,5
74,1
38,8
522,5
56,4
56,9
34,1
44,3
40,2
50,0
114,8
25,4
Bank
Credit
65,2
72,6
72,6
103,6
140,5
148,5
36,9
80,4
24,3
23,7
20,9
25,2
56,8
14,3
Mature Markets
66,5
57,3
16,4
140,2
91,4
76,8
Euro Area *
53,6
29,8
10,0
93,3
54,6
103,9
Japan
141,0
25,6
16,3
182,9
78,5
94,4
United States
47,1
94,4
22,0
163,5
129,0
45,8
* Euro area includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands,
Portugal, and Spain, excluding Luxembourg.
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Source: Global Financial Stability Report, September 2005.
Outstanding Domestic Corporate Debt
(Securities)
% GDP
Average
2000-04
5,5
6,0
6,0
8,1
0,9
4,0
0,4
26,1
1,4
1,0
2,1
0,5
10,1
1,8
15,9
8,3
16,1
1,8
23,2
Average Average
1989-94 1995-99
Emerging markets
4,1
4,4
Africa
10,2
6,4
South Africa
10,2
6,4
Asia
5,5
6,8
China
1,0
0,7
Hong Kong SAR
0,8
2,3
India
0,1
0,2
Korea
15,0
20,4
Europe
0,6
0,9
Russia
Latin America
1,4
1,1
Brazil
0,4
Chile
4,1
3,0
Mexico
1,7
1,1
Mature Markets
11,9
13,0
Euro Area *
3,3
3,1
Japan
9,1
12,4
United Kingdom
2,6
2,4
United States
22,8
23,3
* Euro area includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, and
Spain, excluding Luxembourg.
Source: Global Financial Stability Report, September 2005.
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Some lessons and questions for research
• There is not a single development model to be
mimetized. The Chinese model may elicit many useful
lessons but cannot be automatically copied. An
interesting view-point: how did the Chinese
successfully “copied” many of the Korean strategies
(of the 70’s and 80’s)?
• The strengthening of competitiveness and innovation
in manufacturing seems to be a necessary condition
for a better long term growth performance
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Some lessons and questions for research
• Keeping up and developing new competitive
conditions in low and medium tech intensive sectors,
such as to allow for dynamic trade performances and
for the creation of employment opportunities, seems
to be a wise strategy for BRICS
• Innovation (including DUI and STI modes), education
and skill-apprenticeship (thru experience and thru
training) should be a key focus for promotion of local
development, as sub-regional promotion policies seem
absolutely prioritary to BRICS’ efforts to reduce social
and regional unequality
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Some lessons and questions for research
• How to take advantage of existing capabilities and of
revealed competitive (sub-sector/niche) activities to
capture dynamic potential of the high-tech sectors? In
other words, how to build up from existing
competitive advantage (however scarce) in high-tech?
• How to take full advantage of the ICT-revolution as
smart users/adaptors (to the rest of the economy)?
How to avoid the risks of info-exclusion?
• How to capture/explore new opportunities in
activities/niches/services related to ICT waves? How
to create some fundamental conditions (what are
they?) in order to minimize policy-risks?
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Some lessons and questions for research:
macro-questions
• Are the fundamental macroeconomic conditions ready
for building up a new national development
strategy? From the outlook of the foreign-exchange
position the answer seems to be yes, but how about
the fiscal and financial conditions?
• Are there sufficient political and societal aspiration
and cohesion around a new (potential) development
strategy? Is such national strategy consistent and
clear enough?
• What are the critical challenges to be surpassed in
order to reach it?
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