Transcript 3._Max_SURF-2011-B - SURF

SURF nature
The Welsh Environment:
Understanding the connections
with the economy
November 3rd 2011: Parc Hotel,
Cardiff
A simple plan....
• Welsh economic progress and
environmental connections?
• Welsh environmental/ecological change
and economic connections?
• Neither question easy to answer
What we really need ?
A1: Economy to economy
transactions (increases
in demand for one
good create additional
demands for other
goods
A2: Economy environment
transactions: output of
environmental good per
unit of economic good
A4: Environment to
economy transactions:
output of economic
good per unit of
environmental good –
effects of environmental
goods on economic
activity – effect of global
warming on fishing
A3: Environment to environment
transactions: effects of changes
in environmental goods on other
environmental goods - SO2 on
water quality
How do we measure regional
economic progress?
• Gross
value
added
•
•
•
•
•
Welfare; whose?
What is included?
What is excluded?
Use of natural capital?
Use of eco-systems?
Reporting environmental
information alongside GVA
• Environmental
accounts
• SD indicators
• Apples and
pears
Environmental Satellite Accounts
• Environmental Satellite Accounts – demands
that economic activity places on the
environment
• Partial ESA now available for Wales –
physical flows/resource productivity
• But still apples and pears…
Coverage of experimental ESA for Wales
Natural resources
Table in UK ESA
Coverage for
Wales
Physical flows
Table in UK ESA
Coverage for
Wales
2.1 Energy
consumption
(industries)
Covered
Not available
2.2 Atmospheric
emissions (over time)
Covered
1.3 Land cover
account
Covered
2.3. Atmospheric
emissions (over time)
1.4 Imports and
exports of wood
products
Covered
2.4 Bridging table:
Atmospheric
emissions
Not available
(but not relevant)
1.5 Fish stocks
Covered
2.5 Material flows
Partial
2.6 Waste arisings
Covered
2.7 Radioactive
waste
Covered
1.1 Oil & gas
reserves
1.2 Oil & gas
monetary balance
sheet
Partial
2.8 Water
consumption by
industry sector
Covered
Covered
Monetary accounts
Table in UK ESA
3.1 Government
revenue from
environmental
taxes
Coverage for
Wales
Covered
3.2 Environmental
taxes breakdown
by industry
Partial
3.3 Environmental
protection
spending by public
sector
Covered
3.4 Environmental
protection
spending by public
sector
Covered
3.5 Environmental
protection
spending in
industries
Not available
Adjusting GVA for use of
environmental goods and services
• Green GVA
• Genuine Progress
Indicator
• Index of
Sustainable
Economic welfare
Wales: Trends in ISEW and GVA per Capita 1990-2005
(£2005/head)
16000.0
ISE W/ cap
14000.0
GV A / Cap
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Conclusion
• Some progress in term of linking
economic progress in Wales to
environmental effects
• Other research aims to examine how
projects majoring on environmental and
ecological improvement impact the
economy
Improving the environment:
economic connections
• Large investments in Wales to improve services
derived from natural environment
• how far is it possible to explicitly measure the
economic outcomes connected to such projects?
• projects working with the built & natural
environment might influence elements of the
regional economy & have economic impacts in
terms of GVA and employment improvements
•
Tourism example
1eme Nature and Sports Euro’Meet
partners+
+…
projects aimed at improving the
environment might then……
• support local employment directly and
indirectly
• improve skills supply side for tourism
• safeguard existing tourism revenues, stopping
leakages
• extend the season;
• change the distribution of visitor types:
perhaps encouraging more staying visitors;
• Resident benefits; housing markets….business
location
Scale of economic benefits linked to
environmental interventions…..
• gross spending of project monies and related
employment incomes in reference areas;
direction of spending i.e. how far is projectrelated spending tied to employment, and
what are monies spent on
• what is levered tourism spending spent on
• where spending is on goods and services, then
what proportion of these bought within local
economy?
Tools to assess linkages
• Welsh Input-Output tables (Environment Agency
Wales)
• Welsh Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA)
SPLASH: exploring the economic
effects of the water recreation
challenge fund for Wales
Splash
• Splash is the water recreation challenge
fund for Wales
• Assistance available for projects that
secure new or improved public access to
Wales’ rivers, lakes, canals, reservoirs,
and coastal waters for recreational and
educational activities.
• Welsh Assembly Government offered up
to 100% grants to projects which help
people to enjoy the water resources.
Indirect regional economy effects
of SPLASH activity
Splash-project gross
spending
Splash project regional
spending
Indirect output supported by
Splash project regional
spending
Total output supported in
Wales by Splash regional
spending
Total GVA supported
2008-09
532.5
2009-10
1154.1
381.8
818.9
168.2
311.1
550.0
1130.0
235.0
490.0
Tourism effects?
• SPL2 - Llandysul Paddlers: watersports
facility, environmental improvement,
training facility, expectation of increase in
watersport users on reference water from
9,000 to 16,000; land excavation, plans and
project supervision etc.
•
What might these projected
increases in visitation mean in
economic
terms?
Assume in Llandysul Paddlers if
just 50% increase in the number
of users relates to additional
day trips then an additional
3,500 day trips is estimated to
account for around £84,000 of
direct gross spending on Welsh
goods and services, and around
£73,000 of regional gross value
added (direct and indirect).
Conclusion
• More important to understand
connections between economic changes
and environment and vice versa
• Series of tools in development in Wales to
assist
• How changes in the environment/ecology
affect the economy?
• Much work to be done!