Transcript 3-19 中国二元结构变化4（向仁康，2013）

Lecture2- 3
Classic
Theories of
Economic
Growth and
Development
Classic Theories of Economic
Development: Four Approaches
• 1 Linear stages of growth model
• 2 Theories and Patterns of structural
change
• 3 International-dependence revolution
• 4 Neoclassical, free market
counterrevolution
3-2
重难点
• 1、刘易斯模型
• 2、Measurement of Dual Economy and
Surplus Labor
3、索罗模型
• 4、经济收敛
3-3
1 Development as Growth and LinearStages Theories
• Because of its emphasis on the central role
of accelerated capital accumulation, this
approach is often dubbed “capital
fundamentalism.”
• A Classic Statement: Rostow’s Stages of
Growth
• the traditional society, the pre-conditions
for take-off, the take-off, the drive to
maturity,and the age of high mass
consumption (第六阶段：超越大众消费）
3-4
Conditions of take-off
• 起飞阶段是经济社会出现急剧变革的阶段，是关键
所在。必须具备三个条件：
• 一是要有较高的储蓄率，使储蓄占国民收入的10％
以上；二是要建立起飞的主导部门，使它发展较快
并带动其它部门增长；
• 三是要有制度上的改革，即建立一种能够保证“起
飞”的制度，包括政治、社会与经济方面，以推动
经济的扩张。
3-5
The Harrod-Domar Model
3-6
The Harrod-Domar Model
To grow,economies must save and invest a certain roportion of their
GDP. The more they can save and invest, the faster they can grow.
So,the main obstacle to or constraint on development, according to this
theory, is the relatively low level of new capital formation in most poor
countries.
But saving and investment is a necessary condition and not a
sufficient condition for accelerated rates of economic.
3-7
2 Structural-Change Models
•
•
•
•
2.1 The Lewis two-sector model
Nobel laureate W. Arthur Lewis formulated
extended by John Fei and Gustav Ranis
Two sector: a traditional agricultural sector,
a high-productivity modern urban
industrial sector
3-8
2.1 The Lewis two-sector model
• traditional sector: overpopulated rural
subsistence sector characterized by zero
marginal labor productivity
• surplus labor: it can be withdrawn from
the traditional agricultural sector without
any loss of output
• rural real wage is determined by the
average and not the marginal product of
labor(average level of real subsistence
income in the traditional rural sector.)
3-9
Figure 3.1
The Lewis
Model of
Modern-Sector
Growth in a
Two-Sector
Surplus-Labor
Economy
3-10
Criticisms of the Lewis Model
• Rate of labor transfer and employment
creation may not be proportional to rate of
modern-sector capital accumulation
• Surplus labor in rural areas and full
employment in urban?
• constant real urban wages. Institutional
factors?
• Assumption of diminishing returns in
modern industrial sector
3-11
Figure 3.2 The Lewis Model Modified by Laborsaving
Capital Accumulation: Employment Implications
3-12
The Fei–Ranis Modification
• One problem is to avoid increasing the
average product of labor in agriculture and
the industrial institutional wage that would
halt industrial expansion
• agricultural sector must grow, through
technological progress.
3-13
剩余劳动力的度量（见姚洋《发展经济学》）
• 1.超过农业生产所需的劳动力
• 2.边际产出为0的劳动力
• 3.不改变家庭劳动时间（而劳动者数量变化了）的劳
动力
• 4.工资标准：进城务工人员工资是否快速增长
3-14
二元结构的衡量
• 城市（或农村）就业结构比重
• 二元对比系数：是二元经济中农业部门的比较劳动
生产率与非农业部门比较劳动生产率的比率。数值
越小，二元结构越严重。
• 二元反差指数：农业部门与非农业部门收入或产值
比重与就业比重之差的绝对值的平均值指数越大，
二元结构越严重。y表示收入或产值比重，l表示就
业比重。
3-15
中国二元结构变化1（向仁康，2013）
3-16
中国二元结构变化2（向仁康，2013）
3-17
中国二元结构变化3（向仁康，2013）
3-18
中国二元结构变化4（向仁康，2013）
3-19
Empirical Patterns of Development Examples
• The patterns-of-development analysis of
structural change focuses on the
sequential process through which the
economic, industrial, and institutional
structure of an underdeveloped economy
is transformed over time to permit new
industries to replace traditional agriculture
as the engine of economic growth
• Hollis B. Chenery
3-20
Examples
• Switch from agriculture to industry (and
services)
• the change in consumer demands from
emphasis on food and basic necessities to
desires for diverse manufactured goods and
services
• Rural-urban migration and urbanization
• Steady accumulation of physical and human
capital
• Population growth first increasing and then
decreasing with decline in family size
3-21
Examples
• The decline in family size and overall
population growth as children lose their
economic value and parents substitute
what is traditionally labeled child quality
(education) for quantity
• Let the facts speak for themselves
3-22
3 The International-Dependence
Revolution
• International-dependence models view
developing countries as beset by
institutional, political, and economic
rigidities, both domestic and international,
and caught up in a dependence and
dominance relationship with rich countries
3-23
3 The International-Dependence
Revolution
• The neocolonial dependence model
– Legacy of colonialism, Unequal power, Coreperiphery
• The neo-Marxist, neocolonial view of
underdevelopment attributes a large part of the
developing world’s continuing poverty to the
existence and policies of the industrial capitalist
countries of the northern hemisphere and their
extensions in the form of small but powerful elite
or comprador groups in the less developed
countries.
3-24
The false-paradigm model
– Pitfalls of using “expert” foreign advisors
who misapply developed-country models
• Attributes underdevelopment to faulty and
inappropriate advice provided by wellmeaning but often uninformed, biased, and
ethnocentric international “expert” advisers
from developed country assistance
agencies and multinational donor
organizations.
3-25
The false-paradigm model
• In addition, according to this argument,
leading university intellectuals, trade
unionists, high-level government
economists, and other civil servants all get
their training in developed-country
institutions where they are unwittingly
served an unhealthy dose of alien concepts
and elegant but inapplicable theoretical
models.
3-26
The dualistic-development thesis
– Superior and inferior elements can
coexist; Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis
• Dependence notion of the coexistence of
powerful and wealthy industrialized nations
with weak, impoverished peasant societies
in the international economy.
• This coexistence is chronic and not merely
transitional.
3-27
The dualistic-development thesis
• Not only do the degrees of superiority or
inferiority fail to show any signs of
diminishing, but they even have an
inherent tendency to increase.
• The interrelations between the superior and
inferior elements are such that the
existence of the superior elements does
little or nothing to pull up the inferior
element, let alone “trickle down” to it.
3-28
4 The Neoclassical Counterrevolution:
Market Fundamentalism
• The central argument: underdevelopment results from poor
resource allocation due to incorrect
pricing policies and too much state
intervention by overly active
developing-nation governments.
• promoting free markets and laissezfaire economics
• South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore
as “free market” examples
3-29
4 The Neoclassical Counterrevolution:
Market Fundamentalism
• Challenging the Statist Model:
Free Markets, Public Choice, and
Market-Friendly Approaches
–Free market approach:markets
alone are efficient; competition is
effective, if not perfect; government
intervention in the economy is by
definition distortionary and
counterproductive.
3-30
4 The Neoclassical Counterrevolution:
Market Fundamentalism
–Public choice approach: also known
as the new political economy
approach; politicians, bureaucrats,
citizens, and states act solely from
a self-interested perspective, using
their power and the authority of
government for their own selfish
ends; bribe; rent-seek; minimal
government is the best
government
3-31
4 The Neoclassical Counterrevolution:
Market Fundamentalism
• Market-friendly approach: recognizes that
there are many imperfections in developingcountry product and factor markets and that
governments do have a key role to play in
facilitating the operation of markets through
“nonselective” (market-friendly)
interventions; market failures are more
widespread in developing countries in areas
such as investment coordination and
environmental outcomes.
3-32
Traditional Neoclassical Growth
Theory
•Another cornerstone of the neoclassical
free-market argument is the assertion that
liberalization (opening up) of national
markets draws additional domestic and
foreign investment and thus increases the
rate of capital accumulation. In terms of
GDP growth, this is equivalent to raising
domestic savings rates, which enhances
capital-labor ratios and per capita incomes
in capital-poor developing countries.
•Solow neoclassical growth model
3-33
Appendix 3.1: Components of Economic
Growth
• Capital Accumulation, investments in
physical and human capital
– Increase capital stock
• Growth in population and labor force
• Technological progress
– Neutral, labor/capital-saving, labor/capital
augmenting
3-34
Figure A3.1.1 Effect of Increases in Physical and Human
Resources on the Production Possibility Frontier
3-35
Figure A3.1.2 Effect of Growth of Capital Stock and
Land on the Production Possibility Frontier
3-36
Figure A3.1.3 Effect of Technological Change in the
Agricultural Sector on the Production Possibility
Frontier
3-37
Appendix 3.2: The Solow
Neoclassical Growth Model

Y (t )  Y (t )
 A(t ) L(t ) 
1
 Y  F  K ,  L 
Y L  f  K L ,1 or y  f (k )
y  Ak

k  sf (k )  (  n)k
sf (k )  (  n)k


3-38
Appendix 3.2 The Solow
Neoclassical Growth Model
k  sf (k )  (  n)k
sf (k *)  (  n)k *
(A3.2.4)
(A3.2.5)
3-39
Figure A3.2.1 Equilibrium in the Solow
Growth Model
3-40
Figure A3.2.2 The Long-Run Effect of Changing the
Saving Rate in the Solow Model
3-41
Appendix 3.2
• The effect of change of n
• The growth accounting :TFP
• Convergence
3-42
Appendix 3.3: Endogenous Growth
Theory
• In a rather ad hoc manner, neoclassical
theory credits the bulk of economic growth
to an exogenous or completely
independent process of technological
progress.
• two insurmountable drawbacks: First,
technological advance is completely
independent of the decisions of economic
agents. And second, the theory fails to
explain large differences in Solow residuals
across countries with similar technologies.
3-43
Appendix 3.3: Endogenous Growth
Theory
• Discarding the neoclassical assumption of
diminishing marginal returns to capital
investments; offset the natural tendency for
diminishing returns
• Increasing returns to scale in aggregate
production(externalities : public and private
investments in physical or human capital
generate external economies, complementary
investments; technology spillovers: learning
by doing as “learning by investing.” )
• Endogenous technological progress
3-44
Appendix 3.3: Endogenous Growth
Theory
• Motivation for the new growth theory
• The Romer(1986) model
 1
Yi  AKi Li K
Y  AK

   1
L
n
g n 
1     
3-45
A note:
3-46