Transcript The EU is delivering

EU Climate Change
Policy
Jos Delbeke
Director General - DG Climate Action
European Commission
Leuven, 27.01.2011
1
EU Environmental Policy:
a new policy field
• 1986/87: Single European Act:
• Co-decision Council and EU Parliament
• QMV (Qualified Majority Voting)
• Today:
• Comprehensive set of EU legislation covering air,
water, nature, waste
• Why European level?
• Common problems
• Pollution does not respect borders
• Internal market (product standards and
2
competitiveness issues)
Sustainability Imperative
•
•
POPULATION: today 7 billion, 9 billion until 2050
ENERGY: IEA: 2030 – 40% increase in energy demand
(3/4 fossil fuels)
2050 > 1000 ppm GHG concentration
•
WATER: OECD: 2030 – 4 bn people in water stress
•
FOOD: doubling of production in next 40 years
•
CITIES: UN: more than half population in cities
2050: 80% population in cities
•
TRANSPORT: 2050: 3 bn vehicles (850 m today)
3
Climate change: Science
reveals serious problem
CO2 in 2050
(BAU)
CO2 today
CO2 last
600.000 yrs
Temp. last
600.000 yrs
4
Kilimanjaro then and now
1912
2000
5
EU global vision: global peak
by 2020 and deep cuts
by 2050
6
Total CO2 and per capita
emissions by major emitter in
2009
Region
China
United States
EU 27
India
Russian Federation
Brazil
Gt GHG
8,06
5,31
3,85
1,67
1,57
0,38
World share %
25,8
17,0
12,3
5,3
5,0
1,2
t GHG/cap
6,1
17,2
7,8
1,4
11,2
1,9
Source: J. Olivier and J.A. Peters: No growth in total CO2 emissions in 2009. Netherlands
Environment Agency; IEA data for EU-27
7
EU emission reduction
objectives for Copenhagen
(COP15)
•
•
For 2020:
• industrialized countries: 25-40% reductions
• developing countries: 15-30% below BAU
(business as usual forecasts)
For 2050:
50-85% reductions globally
Comparability of efforts: income, efficiency,
population trends, past efforts
8
The Cancún Package
•
UNFCCC decisions on:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Tropical deforestation (REDD+)
Adaptation
Green Fund
MRV/mitigation
Capacity building
Technology transfer
Market mechanisms
Process on legally binding nature of
commitments/actions
•
•
Continuation of Kyoto
Actions by “developing countries”
9
Cancún – COP 16
•
Legal Outcome
•
Kyoto Protocol: 2nd Commitment Period
• Conditions: AAUs/LULUCF
• Other players: US?
•
Convention: parallel “commitments” (e.g. emerging
economies)?
10
Tropical Deforestation
(REDD+)
• Goal of reducing deforestation
• Halving by 2020
• Stopping by 2030
• Three phases:
• Readiness
• Implementation
• Result-based payments (e.g. carbon market)
• Link biodiversity/social considerations
11
Mitigation
• “Anchoring” the pledge:
•
•
•
•
From Copenhagen Accord to UNFCCC context
Only a starting point (2°C)
Legally binding
Implementation
• For developed countries:
• Robust accounting system (transparency)
• For developing countries:
• Registry: NAMAs seeking support
• Encourage LEDS (low emission development
strategies)
• Collective deviation 15-30% from business as usual
12
MRV
• Development and developing:
• Improved national communications
• Process to develop detailed MRV guidelines
next year
• I.C.A.
• Facilitative
• Technical analysis
• International dimension
13
Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
• EU-15 target for 2008-2012: - 8%
• EU-15 - 1990-2008:
 GHG emissions: - 6.5%
 GDP growth: +45%
• EU-27 - 1990-2008:
 GHG emissions: -11%
 GDP growth: +46%
14
Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
Actual and projected emissions for EU-15
4.800
4.600
Mt CO2 eq.
4.400
4.200
4.000
3.800
3.600
1990
1995
EU-15 emissions
EU-15 existing measures
EU-15 Kyoto target
Business as usual
2000
2005
2010
Kyoto mechanisms use by governments
Carbon sinks
Allow ance and credit acquisition by EU ETS sectors
EU-15 additional measures
15
Kyoto commitments:
The EU is delivering
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Past change in GHG
emissions, 1990-2007
Energy Supply
Energy Use
Transport
Industrial Processes
Agriculture
Waste
Solvents & Other
10% 20% 30%
1%
-15%
24%
-11%
-11%
-39%
-24%
16
EU decides to reduce CO2
emissions in 2020 by 20%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
• today: -6.5%(compared to 1990/including
aviation)
• to do: 14% (compared to 2005)
Renewable Energy:
• today: 8.5% (mainly through large scale hydro
and conventional biomass)
• to do: 11.5%
17
EU ETS as of 1.1.2005
• Emitting CO2 has a price (becomes a cost): costeffective incentive to use cleaner technology
• Some 10,000 installations in power and industry face
quantitative limits to CO2 emissions (allowances)
• Covers ±45% of EU emissions
• Overall cap:
• 2005: 2.3 bn tonnes
• 2008: 2.08 bn tonnes
• 2020: 1.72 bn tonnes
- 21% compared to 2005
18
EU ETS: a predictable EU-wide
cap beyond 2020 (gradual
steps)
Starting point:
1974 Mt in 2013
Gradient: -1.74%
2083 Mt/yr
1720 Mt
-20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
•Linear factor to be reviewed by 2025
•Aviation to be included; will change figures correspondingly, but cap not reduced
19
•Disclaimer: all figures are provisional and do not account for new sectors in third period
Source: Point Carbon
M ar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
M ay-09
M ar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
M ay-08
M ar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
M ay-07
M ar-07
Jan-07
EUA prices €/t
EU ETS:
price development
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20
EU ETS:
Harmonised Allocation Rules
• Fully harmonised allocation rules
• Auctioning is default allocation method –
for power sector
• Free allocation (partial or full) on basis of
ex-ante benchmark (10% best) for energyintensive manufacturing sectors
21
EU ETS: International offsets
• Certainty and predictability: credits to be used up to
2020
• Quantity restriction (supplementarity: 50% of
reduction effort):
• minimum 11% of NAP2 allocation
• corresponding to roughly 6% of phase 2 and 3 caps
• resulting in 1.6 to 1.7 Bt over 2008-20
• Quality: comitology (harmonised approach) to
ensure that credits represent real emission
reductions
• no nuclear and forestry allowed
22
EU ETS: Aviation included
as from 2012
• Cap:
• 2012: 97% of 2004-06 emissions
• From 2013 onwards: 95%
• Auctioning: 15% as from 2012
• Scope: internal, outbound and inbound
aviation
• A third country can take equivalent
measures
23
Incentivising CCS and
RES projects
• Carbon price is main incentive for CCS/RES
• In addition, up to 300 million allowances
available until end 2015 for CCS and innovative
renewable energy technology demonstration
projects (± 4/5 bn €)
• Projects selected on the basis of objective and
transparent criteria, ensuring geographical
balance
• Operators receive support only after
demonstrated performance
24
Renewable Energy
Directive
•
Sets mandatory targets per MS for renewable energy
shares in 2020
- 2009: 8,5% of EU’s energy consumption renewable
- 2020: 20%
•
Reduction of administrative barriers, regulatory
stability, and improved access to the electricity grid
•
Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels

By 2020 every kwh of power out of 3 produced will be
from renewable origin
25
Renewable Energy Directive:
MS targets
BE
BG
CZ
DK
DE
EE
IE
EL
ES
FR
IT
CY
LV
LT
LU
HU
MT
NL
AT
PL
PT
RO
SI
SK
FI
SE
UK
13%
16%
13%
30%
RES share in 2020
18%
25%
16%
18%
20%
23%
17%
13%
42%
23%
11%
13%
10%
14%
34%
15%
31%
24%
25%
14%
38%
49%
15%
26
CO2 from cars
• Reduction of CO2 from new passenger cars (fleetwide average):
2015: 130 g/km (48mpg)
2020: 95 g/km
(65mpg)
2009: 146g/km (1995: 186g/km)
• Taxation of motor fuels: a major driver towards
energy-efficient cars (± 50% of price at pump)
• Importance of scrappage schemes and CO2
modulation of registration taxes
• Being extended to light duty vehicles (VANs)
27
CO2 from cars
28
Energy efficiency of
products
• Minimum performance requirements of
energy-using and energy-related products
(Eco-design Directive (2009/125/EC))
• Labelling of energy efficiency class of
products (Labelling Directive (92/75/EEC))
29
Energy efficiency of
products
Adopted implementing
measures
Date of
application
Greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2020
compared to BAU development, mln. tons of CO2
equivalent
[Source: “Analysis of impact of efficiency standards on EU GHG
emissions” by Ökopol GmbH, 2010]
Electric motors
16.6.2011
~ 32.1
Televisions
20.8.2010
~ 8.6
Street & office lighting
13.4.2010
~ 12.3
Domestic lighting
1.9.2009
~ 9.7 – 12.2
Standby & off mode
electrical power
consumption
8.1.2010
~ 10.7
Glandless circulators
1.1.2013
~7
External power supplies
27.4.2010
~ 2.8
Domestic fridges &
freezers
1.7.2010
~ 1.4
Simple set-top boxes
25.2.210
~ 2.8
30
Energy efficiency of
products
Implementing measures in the
pipeline
Greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2020
compared to BAU development, mln. tons of CO2
equivalent
[Source: “Analysis of impact of efficiency standards on EU GHG emissions”
by Ökopol GmbH, 2010]
Boilers
~ 15.4 – 27.1
Water heaters
~ 6.6 – 13.0
Fans
~ 13.3 – 18.3
Air conditioning and ventilation
…
~ 3.9 – 9.5
…
+/- 140 mio. tonnes of CO2
31
Energy performance of
buildings
• Minimum energy performance requirements set by
Member States:
• for all new and existing buildings
• for technical building systems and building elements
• Commission develops benchmarking methodology
to compare the level of ambition
• All new buildings will be “nearly zero-energy
buildings” at end of 2020
32
Fuel Quality Directive
• 6% reduction by 2020 of life cycle
greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy
from fuel
• saves 60 million tonnes CO2eq by 2020
• How?
• substitution of fossil fuels by other fuels such as
sustainable biofuels (~50% of the target)
• LPG and CNG (~5% of the target)
• electric cars (~10% of the target)
• reducing upstream emissions in and outside of
the EU (could be 50% or more of the target)
33
The Effort Sharing Decision
• Covers ±55% of EU emissions
• "small emitters", not covered by EU ETS
• A diverse set of sectors: transport, heating in
buildings, services & SME’s, agriculture
(N20, CH4), waste (CH4), HFC’s
• Major differences in cost-effective emission
reduction potential (eg. high for some non
CO2 emissions and buildings, low in
transport)
• National, regional and local action very
34
important
EU long term
climate policy targets
• EU and Cancun Agreement objective to globally
limit climate change to 2ºC
• Agreement to develop long term low carbon
strategies
• European Council has set 2050 targets for EU
• October 2009: -80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 in
line with IPCC as target for all industrialised countries
and the EU
• Commission prepares low-carbon economy roadmap
2050 to be published in the coming months
35
2050 Low carbon economy
roadmap: objectives
• Possible pathways for the transition to
a low carbon economy for the EU
• Achieve EU climate targets
• ensure sustainable growth and jobs
• make the EU energy secure
• Identify practical steps for next years
• Contribute to Europe 2020 strategy
• Resource efficient Europe flagship
initiative
36
2050 and interim steps
• EU -20% target by 2020 is important step, but
not fully in line with scientific evidence
• IPCC: Industrialised countries -25-40% by 2020
• EU offer to move to 30% if conditions are right
• Environment Council October 2010
• the roadmap for a safe and sustainable low-carbon
economy by 2050 should also inform the analysis of
policy options up to 2020
• May 2010 analysis of options to move beyond
20%, discussed by other EU institutions
37
Cost of -20%/30% revisited
90
0.54
80
0.5
0.45
60
0.4
0.32
50
0.3
40
30
70
48
81
20
% GDP
€ Billion/year
70
0.6
0.2
0.1
10
0
0
old 20%
new 20%
Costs (€billion/year)
new 30%
% of GDP
38
Cost of 20-30% revisited
• Costs of -20% lower due to:
- economic recession
- higher energy prices
- higher energy efficiency
(new baseline for 2020 includes ETS, CO2 from
cars, eco-design measures)
• Carbon price lower, weaker incentive for
innovation:
- now: 15 €
- 2020: less than 20 € (unused allowances)
• Costs of -30% remain substantial:
- ETS: target from -21% to -34%
- Effort Sharing: target from -10% to -16%
39
40