Transcript PPT - United Nations Statistics Division

The financial crisis – The need for
high frequency indicators
High level seminar on the implementation of the
System of National Accounts 2008 in the
GCC countries
Muscat, Oman, 27 May 2010
United Nations Statistics Division
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Consultations on the Financial and Economic
Crisis
The G20 Summit of April, 2009
International seminars organised by United
Nations Statistics Division and Eurostat
A series on meetings at the end of 2008 and
beginning of 2009
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2008 SNA the overarching framework for economic
statistics, able to incorporates measurement issues
arising from the financial crises
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There was not a lack of information
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Policy makers need the early detection of turning points
of financial and economic trends
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Remedy data gaps that the crisis has revealed
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Improve the availability, periodicity and timeliness of
high frequency statistics in accessible and analytically
useful formats
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The G20 Summit of April, 2009 called for:
the UN, working with other global
institutions, to establish an effective
mechanism to monitor the impact of the
crisis on the poorest and most vulnerable
the IMF and FSB to explore information gaps
and provide appropriate proposals for
strengthening data collection.
◦ IMF (Chair), BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, UN, WB
established the IAG to coordinate work to
explore data gaps and strengthen data
collection
◦ The IAG Group addresses
 key issues related to information gaps on risks
in the financial sector,
 data on international financial networks
 vulnerabilities of domestic economies to
shocks and
 the development of the website on Principle
Global Indicators (PGI)
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UNSD and Eurostat in February 2009 initiated a
series of three international seminars.
The purpose of the seminars is to formulate an
international statistical response to the economic
and financial crisis for improved monitoring of
the rapid and systemic changes in the global real
economy and the financial markets and the
impacts on vulnerable countries and population
groups.
It is expected that the series of seminars will
recommend an agreed data template for high
frequency statistics, related metadata and related
communication and dissemination methods and
techniques
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The first meeting took place in Ottawa, May
2009, which discussed the development of a data
template of high frequency indicators;
Global assessment of Ottawa template
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Ottawa seminar identified a data template with 12
categories
National accounts, production and turnover
indicators, prices, labour market indicators, sectoral
indicators for the external, financial, government,
non-financial and household sector, financial and
real estate market indicators, and economic
sentiment indicators
Global assessment to determine the availability,
timeliness and dissemination of high frequency
indicators
Overview of response
Grouping
World
High
income
Middle
income
Other
Number of
responses
Number in
group
Percentage
of 2008
GDP
Percentage of
2008
population
Response rate
101
211
87.8
80.2
47.9
24
29
89.5
90.2
82.8
53
103
89.4
91.4
51.5
24
79
55.2
21.5
30.4
Response by GCC Countries
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Only 3 of the 6 countries responded to the
assessment in Oct 2010. The other promised to give
it to me after the seminar.
The compilation of high frequency indicators is
generally weak in the GCC region.
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The second meeting took place in Scheveningen,
December 2009, which discussed a global
assessment of the Ottawa data template and the
development of methodology and guidance on
high frequency indicators.
Five themes:
◦ the role of sentiment indicators in tracking
economic trends;
◦ the role of composite indicators in tracking
business cycles;
◦ flash estimates of gross domestic product;
◦ the analytical framework for assessing rapid
economic changes; and
◦ communication and dissemination of indicators
Outcome:
◦ To facilitate the work on the outcome of the
seminar five work groups were formed
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The Working Group on Economic Sentiment
Indicators will conduct a global survey on
sentiment indicators and analyse existing practices.
Moreover, UNSD will establish a knowledge
platform on economic sentiment indicators.
The Working Group on Composite Indicators will
undertake the review of existing guidelines on the
collection, compilation and application of
composite indicators.
◦ Colloquium – Sept 2010.
◦ CIRET – Oct 2010
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The Working Group on Flash GDP will advance the
work on terminology, conceptualisation and
purpose of flash GDP estimates.
The Working Group on the Data Template and
Analytical Indicators will finalise the data template,
meta data and related analytical indicators.
The Working Group on Communication and
Dissemination will create a knowledge base and
review the availability of existing visualisation tools
and methodological guidance.
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Second week of November 2010
Purpose
◦ Discuss the work of the working groups
◦ To prepare a report to the UNSC on
 an agreed statistical framework of HFI
 international comparability of HFI,
 the related analytical framework for monitoring early
warning and business cycle indicators
 the communication and dissemination of HFI
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The financial crisis revealed the need for HFI for the
early detection of changes in economic trends
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The availability of structural and annual data tell us
about the past
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The need is for information about the present
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This will facilitate more timely policy responses
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Data collection practises need to be adapted to
facilitate the dissemination of HFI
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HFI are also relevant for expanding the scope and
detail of the national accounts
Reports of the previous meetings:
Ottawa
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/workshops/2009/ottawa/ac188-2.asp
Scheveningen
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/workshops/2009/netherlands/ac202-2.asp
SNA News and Notes Issue 29
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/sna/nn29-en.pdf
Thank You