Transcript Fundamental analysis

Matakuliah
Tahun
Versi
: F0392/Simulasi Perdagangan di Bursa Efek
: 2005
: 1/3
Pertemuan 01
Makro Ekonomi dan Industri
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Learning Outcomes
Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa
akan mampu :
• Mencari informasi tentang makro ekonomi
dan sektor industri
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Outline Materi
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Inflasi dan Suku Bunga
Surplus dan Defisit APBN
Neraca Perdagangan
Nilai Tukar Uang
Siklus Bisnis dan Industri
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Technical & Fundamental Analysis
• Technical analysis – the belief that
security prices follow recurrent,
predictable patterns
• Fundamental analysis – the belief
that every security eventually sells for
its intrinsic value
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Fundamental Analysis
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Fundamental Analysis
Objective : Value Shares
• Fundamental Analysis: the process of
using fundamental information about a
company to arrive at an estimate of the
share price
• Fundamental  would influence opinion of
value
• Value  present value of future cash
flows
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Fundamental Analysis
• Issue: Must forecast EPS, DPS and
growth
• Must forecast economy ‘better’ than
others, then translate into investment
advice
• Economic forecast => Asset Allocation
Recession:
Bonds  Stocks 
Expansion:
Bonds  Stocks 
Stocks => Which Industry? => Which Co’s
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Fundamental Analysis
• Top Down Analysis:
* Global Economy
* Macroeconomy
* Industry Analysis
* Equity Valuation Models
• Economic forecast => Industry => Co’s
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Global Economy
• Historically -- highly variable growth
• Why important?
Export Co’s - growth opportunities
Competition - imports
Exchange rates
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Effect of Exchange Rates
• Exchange rate - price of one currency in
terms of another
• Rising $ ==> takes more of foreign
currency to buy a $ (price of $’s )
* Hurts exports - US goods more expensive
* Makes imports more competitive
* Helps foreign investment in US
* Hurts US investment in foreign
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Effect of Exchange Rates
• Falling $ ==> takes more $ to buy foreign
currency (price of $’s )
* Helps exports - US goods cheaper
* Makes imports more expensive
* Hurts foreign investment in US
* Helps US investment in foreign countries
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Macroeconomy
• GDP
– Auto
– Steel
– Manufacturing in general
• Inflation
– Regulated co’s; utilities
– Input prices more flexible than output
– Oil companies w/reserves
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Macroeconomy
• Exchange Rates
– Export sensitive: want weak dollar
– Import sensitive (inputs): want strong dollar
• Interest rates
– Housing
– Consumer durables
– Business investment
– Financial services companies
– Utilities
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Macroeconomy
• Consumer sentiment
– Autos
– Consumer durables
• Fiscal Policy
– Government Spending
– Taxes
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Monetary Policy
• Money supply & prices
• Open market operations: Fed buys/sells
bonds => two impacts
Market Clearing (short-run)
Buys ==> reserves ; bond prices ; rates 
Sells ==> reserves ; bond prices ; rates 
Inflation Expectations (long-run)
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Leading Economic Indicators
• Tend to lead rest of economy:
 Money Supply
 Stock Market
 Weekly hours
 Changes in raw materials prices
 ∆’s in consumer expectations
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Industry Analysis
• Issue: How sensitive is industry to
business cycle?
• First: Define Industry
– SIC codes (recently revised)
– Moodys, S&P, Value Line forecasts
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Sensitivity to Business Cycle
• Sensitivity of Sales
Sensitive: Autos, Steel, Luxuries
Non-Sensitive: Necessities; cons. Staples
• Operating Leverage - firms with high OL
are more sensitive (more fixed costs =>
cannot reduce costs with sales)
• Financial Leverage - use of debt
financing
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Industry Analysis
• Industry Life Cycles or Phases
– Start up (product development; rapid growth)
– Consolidation (software; stable growth)
– Maturity (utilities; slowing growth)
– Decline (domestic tobacco)
• High growers => profit opport. => competition
Ease of entry ==> competition
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Summary
Economy
Sales
Operating/Financial
Leverage
Earnings (Cash Flow)
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Tugas
Kerjakan dan kumpulkan pada Pert 02
• Tugas 01-1
• Tugas 01-2
• Tugas 01-3
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