Transcript S5.1b - United Nations Statistics Division

Assessment of Dissemination Practice
for Economic and Financial Statistics
United Nations Statistics Division/Department of Economic
and Social Affairs
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology
and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic
Trends,
27-29 May, Ottawa, Canada
Consultations on the Financial
and Economic Crisis
•High Level Forum the Long-term Development the
SNA, Washington D.C. , 17-18 November
•Official Statistics and the Impact of the Global
Financial Crisis, New York, 22 February
•High Level Forum on Globalization and Global
Crisis: the role of Official Statistics, New York, 23
February
•40th Session of the Statistical Commission
Findings from consultations
• Dissemination of high frequency statistics
• availability, timeliness and comparability
• Communication (integrating analytical, policy and
statistical frameworks –statistics and
commentaries)
• Institutional environment
• user consultation (policy departments,
academia, corporate sector)
• collaboration between Statistical Offices and
Central Banks, Ministry of Finance, etc.
Stylized Facts of the Financial
and Economic Crisis
•Size (global – affecting developed, emerging and
developing countries)
• common data template of core set of high
frequency statistics based on inventory of available
high frequency statistics
•Speed (one year cycle, 2007-8)
• accelerated dissemination where possible
•Transmission mechanism (through products, new units,
etc.)
• closing data gaps – Sectoral and cross border
exposures to risk and contagion
Scope of data template for
economic and financial statistics
• High frequency statistics and their accelerated first
estimates
• Accelerated production and release of a high frequency
statistics as a first estimate early after the end of the
reference period
• Theoretical sound, based on normative standards
• Time series available
• Direct observations (no forecasting)
• Predictive power to detect turning points
• Signal vulnerabilities and exposures
• Link between the real and financial economy
Assessment of Availability and
Timeliness
•Macroeconomic growth and stability
•Sectoral vulnerabilities and
developments
•Market conditions
Assessment of Availability and
Timeliness (cont) – Annex I
• Availability by 12 Data Categories
• Macroeconomic growth and stability (4)
• National accounts,
• Production and turnover
• Prices
• Labor
Assessment of Availability and
Timeliness (cont)
• Sectoral vulnerabilities and developments
(5)
• External sector
• Financial sector
• Government sector
• Household sector
• Non-financial sector
Assessment of Availability and
Timeliness (cont)
•Market conditions (2)
• Financial market
• Real estate market
•Economic Sentiments (1)
• Consumer and business confidence,
composite business cycle indicators (LCI,
CCI, LCI)
Assessment of Availability and
Timeliness (cont)
Set 1: Quarterly National Accounts
Quarterly National Accounts: First GDP estimate
Quarterly National Accounts: GDP release with more
breakdowns (as relevant by expenditures, production by
economic activities and income components
Quarterly National Accounts: Sector accounts (as relevant,
household, corporations, general government sectors)
Assessment of Availability and
Timeliness (cont)
For each of the 12 data categories
• Core set of high frequency statistics
• Supplementary set of high frequency
statistics, if any
• Periodicity and timeliness (recommended/
encouraged)
Elements of assessment of the
dissemination dimensions
• 1. Availability (since when: month/year)
• 2. Periodicity (monthly, quarterly)
• 3. Timeliness (T + days, number of days after the
reference period T)
• 4. Coverage (% of total)
• 5. Target audience (general public, experimental
(for research only), internal administrative use
only, international (rating) agencies only
Elements of assessment of the
dissemination dimensions (cont.)
• 6. Advance release calendar (available, not available)
• 7. Meta data (available, not available)
• 8. Adjustments (seasonal adjustment, calendar-day
adjustment)
• 9. Compiling agency (national statistical institute, central
bank, ministry of finance, other)
• 10. Improvements (improved business register and/or
sample design new basic statistics, new extrapolation and
related techniques, integration of high frequency statistics,
IT innovations, institutional collaboration, other)
Expected outcome from break-out
sessions
• Data template of core (and supplementary)
set of high frequency statistics by 12 data
categories based on the assessment of:
• a current inventory of country
dissemination practices of high frequency
statistics and their first estimates
• identification of data gaps
• agreed elements of assessment
Expected outcome from breakout
session (cont)
• Proposal for actions and initiatives in the near
term:
• Follow-up seminar based on agreed data
template of core set of high frequency statistics
and the accelerated first estimates
• Comparability
• Policy and analytical application of data
template
• Communication
Expected outcome from breakout
session (cont)
• Proposal for actions and initiatives in the short
term
• at national level - introducing a common
national dissemination platform, harmonizing
the meta data descriptions, aligning the release
calendars and revision practices, sharing IT
software tools, etc.; and
• at international level - undertaking a global
assessment on high frequency statistics based
on agreed data template, tracking dissemination
practices, etc.)
Expected outcome from breakout
session (cont)
• Proposals for actions and initiatives in the
medium term
• at national level - a coordinated
implementation program based on
analysis of strengths and weaknesses.
• at international level – a coordinated
implementation program and common
research agenda