Transcript 2008 SNA implementation tables

Agenda item 2
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
Summary of 2008 SNA implementation plans
UNECE
Group of Experts on National Accounts
Geneva, 6-9 May 2014
Overview
1. 2008 SNA implementation tables
2. Stage 1 – review of strategic
documents
3. Stage 2 – review of supporting work
4. Stage 3 – development of national
accounts
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 2
2008 SNA implementation tables
• UNECE tables for formulation of national plans
• Based on 3 stages and milestones for the 2008 SNA
change over, by ISWGNA
• Structure refined during the Workshop in Kiev 2011
• Detailed actions points added based on country
discussions
• Help identify problems and priorities
• First survey in 2012: 19 countries
• Regional recommendations by UNECE
• Second survey in 2014: 18 countries updated the tables
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 3
2008 SNA implementation tables
Stage 1: Review of national or regional statistical strategic papers to include
there the 2008 SNA implementation
-
Identification of and consultation with the main stakeholders for the 2008 SNA
implementation. Institutional agreements.
Prioritization for 2008 SNA, based on user needs and resources.
Inclusion of the implementation of the 2008 SNA in the overall strategic plan of the
statistical office
Adoption of detailed action plan for 2008 SNA
Stage 2: Review of work needed to support implementation of the 2008 SNA
-
New classifications and improvements in business registers and business statistics
Changes in business statistics surveys to collect the necessary source data
Changes in other related source statistics compiled by the statistical office
Review of macroeconomic data compiled outside the office (e.g. BoP, GFS, MFS)
Adaptation of administrative data sources to new requirements
IT and other changes. Staff resources.
Stage 3: Development of National Accounts and changeover to the 2008 SNA
May 2014
Main issues affecting GDP
GNI and other primary indicators
Institutional sector accounts (non-financial accounts)
Institutional sector accounts: Financial account
Institutional sector accounts: Balance sheets
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 4
STAGE 1 – Institutional agreements
• Progress made:
• Interagency working groups (7 countries)
• Memorandums of Understanding / other agreements (7)
• Institutional arrangements ongoing in the rest (meetings,
workshops)
• NSO coordinator for administrative data exchange
• Issues: Distribution of responsibilities, harmonising data and
finding ways for data exchange (legal basis, IT issues),
continuous cooperation
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 5
STAGE 1 – User needs and resources
• Progress made:
• List of top priorities defined (4 countries)
• Seminars, workshops or discussions held with users and
data providers (5)
• Interagency working group to review user needs
• Press release explaining the 2008 SNA (Armenia)
• Translation of SNA 2008 to national language available for
users
• Issues: How to explain changes to users, developing
documentation and training materials, lack of resources
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 6
STAGE 1 – 2008 SNA in Statistical
Development Strategies
• Progress made:
• SNA implementation included (17 countries)
 Master plan in preparation (1)
• Global Assessment recommendations relating to
2008 SNA being included in the Development
Strategy
• National implementation plans on UNECE website
• Issues: Need for future revisions of strategies, sharing
good practices with more advanced countries
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 7
STAGE 1 – Detailed action plan for
2008 SNA
• Progress made:
• Detailed 2008 SNA action plans adopted (10 countries)
 Good progress in others, e.g. adoption soon
• Revising detailed 2008 SNA action plans
• Aligning technical assistance with 2008 SNA plans
• Setting up interdepartmental working groups in NSO on
the implementation
• Issues: Clarification of priorities, coordination of work plans
with other institutions, lack of resources, seeking support
from public authorities
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 8
Areas of future work and international
support (Stage 1)
• Exchanging experience on institutional arrangements
• Communicate 2008 SNA and train users
(6 countries)
• Exchanging experience on implementing and revising
2008 SNA strategic plans (7)
• Defining areas for further work with international experts
• Collaboration with other government agencies
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 9
STAGE 2 – Classifications and
improvements in business statistics
• Progress made:
• New industry and product classifications
implemented (10 countries)
• New classifications in the process of adoption or
implementation started in others
• Issues: implementing classifications on institutional
sectors and financial assets; backcasting; further
improving business registers, e.g. coverage and
sectorisation; lack of resources
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 10
STAGE 2 – Changes in business
statistics surveys
• Progress made:
• Revisions made to questionnaires (10 countries)
 Analysis of existing data vs. SNA requirements ongoing
 Questionnaires with double classification
 New content of surveys, e.g. short-term & structural
statistics; banking & insurance, computer software, R&D
and IPP
 New survey on innovation for R&D expenditure data etc.
• Issues: Response burden; timeliness; budget constraints; data
validation; data collection for financial corporations; quarterly
surveys, bookkeeping standards
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 11
STAGE 2 – Changes in other related
NSO’s source statistics
• Progress made:
• Improved production systems and databases
• Extended household budget surveys and improved
LFS
• Improved price indexes
• Non-observed economy survey
• Steps to set up NPISH collection
• Issues: Staff and IT resource constrains, detailed data
on extra budgetary funds
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 12
STAGE 2 – Macroeconomic data
compiled outside the office
• Progress made:
• GFS (with MoF) (8 countries)
• BoP & monetary statistics (with CB) (6)
 Solving discrepancies with BoP
 Revising historical BoP time series
• FISIM workbook based on MFS
• Issues: Better coordination with CB and MoF, improving
and harmonization of data for GFS, BoP and monetary
statistics; recording of NPL; EDP tables; translating
manuals
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 13
STAGE 2 – Adaptation of administrative
data sources
• Progress made:
• Discussions with admin data providers, e.g. on changes
and data exchange
 Changes to MoF data collection for SNA
 Using new data from tax authorities
• Integrated information system "e-statistics" for cooperation
with administrative data sources
• New statistics on the pension fund
• Issues: Improve estimates of regional GDP from admin data;
improve admin data use, collection forms and technology for
data exchange, consistency of definitions and concepts,
support from authorities in charge of admin registers
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 14
STAGE 2 – IT and staff resources
• Progress made:
• New production systems → opportunities for professional
growth
• Improved data processing for surveys and electronic data
collection
• Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP
• Increased staff resources
• Issues: Appropriate software needed (5); set up or redesign
data warehousing; limited financial and/or human resources (7)
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 15
Areas of future work and international
support (Stage 2)
• Integration with business registers & related
statistics (11 countries)
• Revisions of time series and backcasting (5)
• Coordinated development of BoP, monetary
statistics and GFS (9)
• Training IT staff on the necessary modernization (9)
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 16
STAGE 3 – Development of National Accounts
Main priorities in the national implementation plans and
UNECE regional recommendations

Basic indicators of GDP (Milestone I)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Measurement of services (incl. 2008 SNA financial services)
Constant prices: deflators, double deflation, chain linking
Exhaustiveness (incl. Informal and illegal activities)
Government sector: accruals, coverage
Balancing in a supply and use framework
Measures of GFCF and CFC (incl. 2008 SNA assets boundary)
Improvements in QNA, seasonal adjustments methods

GNI and other primary indicators - Milestone 2

Institutional sector accounts: Milestones 3 to 6
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 17
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
• Significant progress in relation to GDP measures.
• General improvements in NA in all 18 countries
• 2008 SNA changes: 14 countries started work and 4
planned
• Ukraine developed estimates for major changes affecting
GDP
• 5 countries finalized estimates for 1 or more 2008 SNA
changes (4 FISIM, 2 Insurance, 2 Output of CB; 1 R&D)
• Majority of countries have taken step-by-step
approach for the implementation of the 2008 SNA
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 18
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
• Work under national strategies for development of
statistics: significant involvement of national resources
• International support:
• Twinning projects and different forms of bilateral support
• IPA funds, IMF assistance programs, WB Projects
• Methodological guidelines:
• International manuals developed by IMF, OECD,
UNSD/ECB, Eurostat
• Specific recommendations by CIS-STAT, UNECE
• Training seminars and workshops
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 19
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
Annual National Accounts
• Developing SUT and balancing in SUT framework: Albania,
Azerbaijan, Moldova, Serbia, Russian Federation, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan
• Estimates of GDP by expenditure: independent estimates,
implementation of new data sources/surveys (Albania,
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia&Herzegovina, Georgia,
Mongolia, Montenegro, Serbia,…)
• Improving GDP estimates by production: classification of
units, statistical questionnaires, coverage of statistical surveys
(Georgia, Montenegro, Turkmenistan, ..)
• Implementation of income approach (Serbia)
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 20
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
Quarterly National Accounts
• QNA by productions approach: Bosnia, Montenegro
• QNA by expenditure approach: Serbia, Albania (experimental),
Bosnia (in-progress)
• Experimental estimates for discrete quarters: Uzbekistan
• Seasonal Adjustment: Moldova
• Improving QNA: Albania, Armenia, Moldova, Mongolia, Serbia,
Constant Price Estimates
• Chain linking, revision of constant price series: Albania, Armenia,
Moldova
• Double deflation based on SUT: Albania, Azerbaijan
• Expenditure components in constant prices
• Constant price estimates for taxes, government output, FISIM
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 21
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
Non-observed economy
•
•
•
•
•
Majority of countries improved estimates of NOE
..but only few included them in national accounts series
Eurostat tabular approach most often used
Specific surveys/data bases developed
Issues: illegal activities, inclusion in the accounts and
revision of data series
Imputed rent
• New method based on user cost approach in 5 countries:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation,
Ukraine
• Issues: Price indices for housing, constant prices
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 22
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
Improving methods for GFCF and CFC in about half
of the countries
• Revision of the questionnaires
• Revisions in the estimation methods by types of assets
• Implementation of perpetual inventory method (PIM)
• Issues: estimates for Households and Government
sectors
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 23
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
R&D expenditure
• Estimates completed in Azerbaijan (experimental),
fYROM, Ukraine
• On-going work in Albania, Armenia, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Uzbekistan
• Revision of surveys and exploring new data sources
• Issues: Building time series, data availability for the
government sector
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 24
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
Military expenditure
• Estimates completed in Azerbaijan (experimental),
Mongolia?, Ukraine
• On-going work in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, fYROM, Moldova, Mongolia, Uzbekistan
• Agreements and workshops with Ministries of Fefense or
Finance
• Issues: Confidential data
Computer software (fYROM), Land improvements (fYROM),
mineral exploration (Albania)
• Improvement of questionnaires
• Additional data sources
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 25
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
Financial services
• FISIM
• New method is implemented in Albania, Azerbaijan,
Mongolia, Russian Federation, Serbia, Ukraine.
• Experimental calculations in Armenia, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, Moldova, Uzbekistan
• Issues: imports and export of FISIM, constant price
estimates, lack of detailed information from the CB
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 26
STAGE 3 – Basic indicators of GDP
Financial Services
• Output of Central Bank
• New method implemented in Albania and Uzbekistan
• Experimental calculations and on-going work in Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Mongolia,
Tajikistan
• Insurance services (Albania, Kazakhstan Ukraine,
Uzbekistan)
• Issues: output of reinsurance services, output of non-life
insurance
• Pension Funds (Kazakhstan)
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 27
STAGE 3 – GNI and other primary indicators
Work is under way in 14 countries
• Together with Central Banks as compilers of BoP
• Reconciling the estimates on export and imports, FDI
survey, current and capital transfers,
• Issues: remittances, IT issues, Data Warehouse System for
adequate data processing,
• Coordination of the revision of data series in line BPM6 and
2008 SNA
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 28
STAGE 3 – Institutional sector accounts:
Non-financial accounts: work under way in 12 countries
• Developing sector accounts in steps, some first for
government sector, some for production accounts
• Challenges in obtaining the required data from other
institutions, exploring data sources
Financial Accounts: Mainly experimental calculations
• Completed in Russian Federation (Central Bank)
• Ongoing work in 4 countries
• Arrangements with the CB, exploring data sources,
revision of questionnaires, classifications, IT issues
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 29
STAGE 3 – Institutional sector accounts:
Balance Sheets: Mainly at initial stages
• Examination of methods and data sources
Issues: Institutional sector classification, Coverage of
Government sector and sub-sectors, Sub-sectoring of financial
institutions, classification of assets
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 30
Stage 3 – Priorities, Challenges,
Technical assistance
Priority I: GDP, GNI and basic indicators: finalize existing
national programmes and publish the revised time series
• Financial services, GFCF, NOE, constant prices, improving
scope and quality of accounts, QNA, harmonizing BoP and
SNA
• Implement the experimental estimates in the accounts,
revision of time series, communication to users
Step-by-step approach vs major revision?
Coordination with other instritutions (e. BoP compilers)?
Coordination with other countres?
• Experts support; exchange of experience (including with
countries from the region), training
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 31
Stage 3 – Priorities, Challenges,
Technical assistance
Priority II ? Financial accounts? Balance sheets? Nonfinancial sector accounts?
• Institutional sector classification: agreed and consistently
applied by the NSO, CB and MoF
• Implementation and use of GFS data in national
accounts
• Classification of assets: non-financial and financial
• Valuation of assets and transactions
• Involvement of Central Banks and/or Ministries of
Finance
• Training, workshops, guidance and recommendations,
study visits and experts support
May 2014
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 32