Transcript Energy Consumption and Projections

Fighting the Climate Change
Challenges Facing China and WB Support
Junhui Wu
Sector Manager
Energy and Mining Sector Unit
East Asian and Pacific Region
Outlines
1. Energy Consumption and Projections
2. Challenges Facing China
3. China’s Response – 11th Five-year Plan
4. China’s Response – Medium & Long-term Energy Conservation Plan
5. China’s Response – Promotion of Renewable Energy
6. WB Contributions and Support
Energy Consumption and Projections
EAP region/China in 2002 - 2010
•
Power generation to remain
dominated by coal (~75%),
with oil (~10%), gas (~10%),
and renewables + nuclear
(~5%)
•
Biomass to be significant
1,500
Nuclear
1,000
Gas
Oil
500
Coal
0
Japan+Korea
2002
Gas still low, renewables
very low  aggressive
promotion needed
Other
renew ables
Hydro
EU 2002
•
2,000
USA+Canada
2002
Oil imports to rise  security
concerns
Biomass
EAP2010
2010
EAP
(BAU)
(BAU)
•
Primary energy consumption (IEA 2004)
2,500
China
China2002
2002
Coal to account for nearly half
of primary energy 
environmental impacts
EAP in 2010: Coal dominant, oil & gas rising
EAP
EAP 2002
2002
•
Energy demand to grow the
fastest among all regions in
the world
Million tons oil equivalent (Mtoe)
•
•
High
fuel consumption
is consumption
leading to
CO2fossil
emission
from fossil fuel
increasing Greenhouse
Gas emissions
(Billion tons)
7
China
6
5
Indonesia, Vietnam
& Philippines
4
S. Korea, Thailand,
Malaysia
3
2
USA
1
2000
2001
2002
1996
1997
1998
1999
1993
1994
1995
0
1990
1991
1992
Billions of tons of CO2 from fossil
fuel consumption
Energy Consumption and Projections
High fossil fuel consumption is leading to increased Greenhouse
Gas emissions
Energy Consumption and Projections

Coal will dominate (>50%
of primary energy till
2020). Coal consumption
will increase from 1.3
billion tons in 2000 to
between 2.1 and 2.9 billion
tons in 2020.

Oil will account for about
27% of total primary
energy in 2020.
Consumption will increase
from 4.6 million barrels per
day in 2000 to between 9
and 12.2 million barrels per
day in 2020.
China will remain heavily dependent on coal till 2020
Fuel Mix - Primary Energy 2020 (IEA 02, Mtce)
US-Canada
EU
CHINA
China
Russia
Jap-Aus-NZ
India
Brazil
Mexico
Indonesia
Korea
-
500
Coal
1,000
Oil
1,500
Gas
2,000
Nuclear
2,500
3,000
Hydro
3,500
4,000
4,500
Other Renewables
5,000

Gas will increase from 26 bcm in 2000 to around 159 bcm in 2020, expanding to 7%-9% of primary
energy.

Other sources (nuclear, hydro, other renewables) will account for less than 5% of primary energy
in 2020.
Energy Consumption and Projections
China's per capita energy use could grow far
beyond 2020
Tons coal equivalent
per capita
14
USA 2002
12
10
8
S. Korea 2002
6
4
Germany 2002
Japan 2002
UK 2002
China 2002 to 2020
2
India 2002
-
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
GDP per capita (2002$)
40,000
GoC’s long-term goal: to quadruple real GDP from $1,081 billion in 2000 to $4,132 billion in 2020
(2000$) - more pessimistic projections see the quadrupling in between 2024 and 2028.

Energy consumption will rise from 1,300 Mtce in 2000 to between 2,290 and 3,280 Mtce in 2020

Per capita energy consumption will be low in 2020 – with plenty of room for growth
Energy Consumption and Projections
Energy Intensity
•
China has made great progress in reducing waste, however, further reductions will not
be easy to realize.
•
Energy intensity of China’s industries is still high.
China:
China has made
greatEnergy
progressintensity
in reducing waste...
Energy
intensity
of Chinese
industries
still high
Energy
intensity
of China’s
industries
tons of oil equivalent /1,000 dollars of GDP (1995$)
(Energy
intensity: tons of oil equivalent/1,000 dollars of GDP 1995$)
2.5
Gap
between
energy
consumption/unit
output inoutput
China and
Gap
between
energy
consumption/unit
in
China and
international
best
practice
international best practice
2.0
0%
50%
100%
150%
1.5
Coal for power gen
1.0
2000
1980
0.5
Steel
Actual
DRC - Green
US DOE - Ref
DRC - Ord Eff
IEA 02
US DOE - Low
DRC - Sustainability
US DOE - High
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
0.0
Cement
Trucks (fuel oil)
Challenges Facing China
1. Long-term Energy Security

Providing affordable and reliable energy supply
2. Local Environmental Impacts

acid rains impact on agriculture and food security
-

SO2 emissions will double and NOx emission will triple from 2000 to 2020
particulates impact on population health
-
cost of exposure to particulates for urban residents expected to rise from $32 billion
in 1995 to $98 billion in 2020 (WB: China 2020)
3. Global Environment Impacts – Climate Change

China’s CO2 emissions are expected to increase from 3.3 billion tons in 2000 to 5.7 billion
tons in 2020 (IEA 2004)
China’s Response – 11th Five-year Plan
One theme:
 establishing a harmonious, resource-saving and environmental-friendly
society
-
through harmonization of economic development and social development;
-
through harmonization of economic development and efficient resources utilization &
environment preservation.
Two Targets:
 doubling the GDP (2000 – 2010)
 reducing energy consumption per unit GDP by 20% from 2005 to 2010
-
through economic structure adjustment – less energy intensive development path;
-
through more efficient resource utilization.
China’s Response – 11th Five-year Plan
For the energy industry specific, the 11th Five-year Plan calls for

Policy guidelines: give priority to energy efficiency

Principle: diversify energy sources, with coal as the major source of supply

Coal:



-
construct large-scale coalmines, upgrade small- and medium-scale ones
-
make use of coal-bed methane
-
encourage co-generation operation
Petroleum and Gas:
-
strengthen exploitation of petroleum and natural gas
-
increase strategic oil reserve
-
develop gradually alternative forms of energy to petroleum
Power:
-
install large-size, high-efficiency thermal generators
-
encourage hydropower development harmonized with better protection of natural and ecological environment
-
further develop nuclear power generation
Renewable Energy:
-

accelerate research and scale up utilization of wind, solar, and biomass energy and other renewable energy
Energy in Rural Development: to encourage use of methane gas and other clean energy in rural areas
China’s Response –
Medium & long-term energy Conservation Plan
Objectives

Achieving annual reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP by 2.2%.
Measures:




Enhancing Regulations: formulate and implement harmonized energy & environment policies
-
facilitate industrial structure adjustment
-
provide incentives to energy efficiency improvement
-
set up energy efficiency standards
-
control strictly addition of new stocks from energy efficiency perspective
-
reinforce regulation on energy efficiency in major sectors: key industries (power, petroleum, steel, coal …),
transportation, building, household electric appliances, etc.
-
strengthen monitoring of energy efficiency
Promoting market-based mechanism for energy efficiency improvement
-
accelerate development, demonstration and promotion of energy efficiency technologies and services
-
create enabling environment to facilitate financing investments in energy efficiency improvement
Implementing major energy efficiency projects
-
explore energy efficiency potentials in existing stocks
-
apply new energy efficiency technologies/practices in new stocks
Creating energy efficiency awareness and knowledge dissemination
China’s Response –
Promotion of Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy Objectives by 2020
 announced by GoC at the International Conference on Sustainable
Development of Renewable Energy, Beijing, 2005
-
Wind power capacity:
30 GW
-
Solar PV capacity:
2 GW
-
Biomass generation capacity: 20 GW
 Renewable Energy Law has been made effective since January 2006
 Implementing regulations
-
feed-in tariff – biomass
-
Market Mandatory Share (MMS) of renewable energy – in consideration
WB Contributions and Support - Past
WB supports contributed to sustainability of energy development in China
through lending and TA

Introduced advanced technologies - greatly improved efficiency in power generation



Assisted in capacity building





300, 600 and 1,000 MW thermal power units
300, 550 MW hydro units; 300 MW pumped storage units
Energy master planning, resource use planning
Social and environment impact assessment and management
project processing – selection and processing criteria, procedures and methodologies
Advanced project management concepts and practices
Supported energy sector reform and sustainable development



development strategies and planning
policy dialogues and sector regulation
Formulation of 《China Renewable Energy Law》
WB Contributions and Support - Current
Renewable Energy
•
•
•
CRESP – wind (200 MW), biomass (25
MW) & hydro rehab.
Lending to new hydro (269 MW)
CF to new hydro (130 MW)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Policy and Regulation
•
Energy Efficiency
Market-mechanism - ESCOs,
intermediaries for financing
Heat reform & Building EE (China
Energy Conservation, Liaoning City
Infrastructure)
China Energy 2020 (long-term
planning)
Implementation of Renewable
Energy Law
Municipal heat industry regulation
and EE pre-invest
Coal sector restructuring and
development strategy
China CDM strategy
Coal-bed Methane Strategy
DSM knowledge & policy
Challenges
•
•
Energy Security
Local Env Impacts
Climate Change
Thermal Power Efficiency
AAA on Cleaner & more efficient
coal-fired generation
Environment
•
•
•
Set-up of SDF (TA, HFC-23)
Conversion of coal-fired to gas
boilers (Beijing Env. Project)
Integrated forestry management
(Guangxi)
Clean Coal Technology
Development support/recomm.
•
•
•
New park – leapfrogging to newest
technologies & most stringent energy
standard
Existing park – intensify efficiency
improvement
TT & increased invest. in R&D
•
Waste mgmt. (Shandong, Shanghai,
Tianjing)
•
Coal-bed methane recovery
(Jingcheng, Qingshui)