Transcript The outlook study for Sweden

The outlook study for Sweden
Ragnar Jonsson
Anders Baudin
• Swedish Forest Sector in a Global Context
Real potential for changes in growth and
use of EU forests
EUwood
Project Call for tenders No. TREN/D2/491-2008
Mantau, U. et al.
Date of report
30 June 2010
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
Background
•
The Future Forests Programme in Sweden, a long-term outlook study
(www.futureforests.se)
•
EFSOS II in the framework of UNECE and its Timber Section in UN Geneva
to be conducted in 2009-2011
•
Participants in the Future Forests Programme had experience from similar
previous studies in FAO and UNECE
•
Benefits of coordinating the two exercises
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
Over-all perspective
•
Market analysis with focus on forest industry products, bioenergy and forest
resources
•
Complement to long-term scenario analyses in the Future Forest
Programme
•
Participation in EFSOSII together with teams from Hamburg University, EFI,
UNECE, FAO
•
Demand/supply/trade analyses conducted by the Swedish group, Wood
Resurce Balance (EUWood) by the group in Hamburg and forest resources
- EFISCEN - carried out at EFI
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
The Swedish situation
•
•
•
•
•
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Focus on the forest industry; pulp and paper,
sawmilling, less on Wood-based Panels
Export oriented
Sustainable forestry
Today increasing focus on energy
The industry often regards by-products as
resources for energy and pulp production
Increasing competition from the energy sector –
how does the traditional industry respond?
Swedish exports of selected forest products by importing region, year 2009
Assortment
Sawn & planed
softwood
Importing
region
Europe
EU 27
Africa
Asia
Total
Importing
region
Wood pulp &
waste paper
Paper &
paperboard
Quantity
1000:s m³
8 455
7 613
2 357
1 287
12 252
Quantity
1000:s
m.t
Value
SEK
1000s
Share
of
quantity
16 073 871
14 111 444
4 008 868
2 673 224
23 103 596
Value
SEK
1000s
Share
of
value
69%
62%
19%
11%
70%
61%
17%
12%
100%
100%
Share
of
quantity
Share
of
value
Europe
EU 27
Asia
Middle East
Total
Europe
EU 27
2 919
2 778
718
71
3 718
7 958
7 438
12 133 996
11 686 253
2 721 963
251 861
15 218 645
54 909 599
50 681 656
79%
75%
19%
2%
100%
80%
75%
80%
77%
18%
2%
100%
82%
75%
Asia
Middle East
1 402
333
14%
3%
13%
3%
Total
9 907
8 625 401
1 936 938
67 225 113
100%
100%
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
The EUwood project
Purpose
to assess the potential for increased use of wood
resources in the EU in light of the RES directive
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
Wood use the Wood Resource Balance - a balance sheet for wood
Source: http//ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/studies/doc/bioenergy/euwood_methodology_report.pdf
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
Econometric modeling => material use of wood
1. Income (GDP) elasticities derived from regression analysis of
(i) Export f{GDP-index (DE, FRA, IT, UK); prices}
(ii) Import f{GDP; prices}
(iii) Demand for domestic. produced f{GDP; prices },
+
2. Assumptions regarding future real GDP- growth
=>
3. Production projections [(i) + (iii)]
+
4. Conversion factors (from UNECE/FAO)
=>
Estimated future material use of wood in two scenarios
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
GDP projections from IPCC’s A1 and B2 scenarios
A1
Rapid economic (GDP) growth and technological progress, regional
convergence, intensified global trade.
Limited environm. awareness,
B2
Slower economic growth and technological progress, local & regional
solutions to economic, social and environm. sustainability.
High environm. awareness.
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
Future energy use of wood
estimations based on the EU RES directive
total energy consumption foreseen to decrease by 20% to 2020
Decoupling? GDP and energy consumption in EU 27 (indices)
140%
(2000 = 100%)
120%
100%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Energy consumption:
2005
2006
2007
2008
GDP
Source: http//ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/studies/doc/bioenergy/euwood_methodology_report.pdf
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
RES share
2008
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
EU 27
Target for 2020
28.5 %
3.3 %
9.4 %
4.1 %
7.2 %
18.8 %
19.1 %
30.5 %
11.0 %
9.1 %
8.0 %
6.6 %
3.8 %
6.8 %
29.9 %
15.3 %
2.1 %
0.2 %
3.2 %
7.9 %
23.2 %
20.4 %
8.4 %
15.1 %
8.7 %
44.4 %
2.2 %
10.3 %
Source: Eurostat
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
34 %
13 %
16 %
13 %
13 %
30 %
25 %
38 %
23 %
18 %
18 %
13 %
16 %
17 %
40 %
23 %
11 %
10 %
14 %
15 %
31 %
24 %
14 %
25 %
20 %
49 %
15 %
20 %
Wood-based energy as a share of total renewable energy
Source: http//ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/studies/doc/bioenergy/euwood_methodology_report.pdf
Declining share assumed (40% by 2020 for the EU as a whole)
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
EFISCEN => future woody biomass potential from forests
In EFISCEN (an area matrix model), growth dynamics are estimated by the model’s growth functions,
whose coefficients are based on inventory data or yield tables
Management is specified at two levels
(i) possible thinning period and minimum age for final
fellings
(ii) the demand for wood is specified and harvested, if
available

EFISCEN estimates iteratively maximum theoretical sustainable supply (harvested volume
< increment) of woody biomass from the EU forests

Theoretical supply converted to realizable potential by means of technical and environm.
restrictions, in three mobilization scenarios (high, medium (business-as-usual), low
Future supply of and demand for wood resources
Wood Resource Balance for Sweden
(in million m3)
Reference future B2
potential
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
dem and
fo rest wo o dy bio mass
108
110
116
83
86
87
material uses
o ther wo o dy bio mass
43
45
46
36
36
48
energy uses
15 1
15 5
16 2
119
12 3
13 5
to tal
to tal
Reference future A1
po t e nt ia l
2 0 10
2020
2030
2 0 10
2020
2030
de m a nd
fo rest wo o dy bio mass
108
110
116
83
91
100
material uses
o ther wo o dy bio mass
43
47
52
36
36
48
energy uses
15 1
15 8
16 8
119
12 8
14 8
to tal
Note Medium mobilisation scenario of forest woody biomass
Source: http//ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/studies/doc/bioenergy/euwood_methodology_report.pdf
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
to tal
Future supply of and demand for wood resources
Wood Resource Balance for EU 27
(in million m3)
Reference future B2
potential
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
dem and
fo rest wo o dy bio mass
686
678
680
458
495
528
material uses
o ther wo o dy bio mass
287
311
334
346
573
752
energy uses
10 15
805
10 6 8
12 8 0
to tal
973
989
to tal
Reference future A1
po t e nt ia l
2 0 10
2020
2030
2 0 10
2020
2030
de m a nd
fo rest wo o dy bio mass
686
678
680
458
529
620
material uses
o ther wo o dy bio mass
287
327
375
346
573
752
energy uses
973
10 0 5
10 5 5
805
110 2
13 7 2
to tal
Note Medium mobilisation scenario of forest woody biomass
Source: http//ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/studies/doc/bioenergy/euwood_methodology_report.pdf
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
to tal
Discussion
Wood resources in the EU as a whole will not suffice to reach the targets for
renewable energy, given the modelling assumptions related above.
Increased imports of bio-energy feedstock from other regions, already a
fact, can be foreseen.
In addition, a soaring demand pressure on the forest resource in EU can be
expected, particularly in Sweden and other forest rich member states,
necessitating a number of trade-offs:

An elevated harvest level and intensified forest management
- shortened rotation periods, increased fertilization, increased
extraction of logging residues and stump harvesting - could
compromise biodiversity and other non-wood ecosystem
services, such as water quality.

The general consideration for biodiversity on all productive
forest land, a trait of Swedish forest policy, could be at risk.

The objective of maximizing wood supply also conflicts to
some extent with the objective of increasing carbon
sequestration in forests.
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012
 The modeling does not, however, take into consideration the effects of other
imminent drivers of change (other than promotion of renewable energy), such
as:
 Continued globalization - forest plantations in the southern hemisphere
increasingly replacing forests in the northern hemisphere as the raw material
resource for the wood-products industry - could possibly mitigate a wood deficit
in the EU
 Promotion of material substitution, i.e., encouraging the use of energy-efficient,
renewable construction materials, could boost demand for construction timber,
exasperating wood shortage.
 On the other hand; the sawmills are crucial for the mobilization of bioenergy
feedstock: small-diameter logs and by-products (chips and particles)
 Progress in electronic ICT has already had a negative impact on the demand
for newsprint, office paper, and advertisement print, particularly in the USA.
This should decrease future demand for pulpwood
 In addition, the modeling does not consider dynamic processes, e.g., an
expanding bioenergy sector crowding out pulp and paper
Ragnar Jonsson and Anders Baudin, Nancy France June 1 2012