Transcript Thar Coal & Energy Board

THAR COAL
THE GATEWAY TO ENERGY
SECURITY OF PAKISTAN
Mr. Ajaz Ali Khan
Secretary to Govt. of Sindh
Coal & Energy Development Department
Managing Director, Thar Coal & Energy Board
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
1
[email protected]
Pakistan Energy Scenario
Pakistan energy requirements potentially huge:
• Sixth largest country in the world, with its growing
population to exceed 190m by 2015.
• Rising population, incomes, per capita energy use, and
industrialization translate to high energy demand growth
(total primary energy supply expected to triple or
quadruple by 2025).
• Serious economic and development implications, as
energy deficit Pakistan faces increasing energy import
cost, with few medium term solutions to supply shortfalls
2
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
Alarm Bell
The gravity of situation can only be understood by comparing the projected
demand figures with the total current firm supply figures of our country
Current
Installed (MW)
Projected Demand
(MW)
Year
2010
2015
17897
2020
2025
2030
Source: PEPCO
24,474
36,217
54,359
80,566
1,13,695
Gap (MW)
6,577
18,320
36,462
62,669
95,798
3
Pakistan Current Power Generation Mix
Electricity Generation 2007-08
Total 95,860 GWh
Hydel
29.96%
Oil
32.16%
Usage of Coal
is negligible
Nuclear & Imported
3.41%
Coal
0.10%
Gas
34.37%
Source: Pakistan Energy Outlook 2007 – 2008 to 2021 – 2022 – Petroleum Institute of Pakistan
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
4
[email protected]
National Costs of Load Shedding
Cost to the Industrial Sector
Rs 157 billion
Cost to the other sectors of industrial
loss of Value Added
Rs 53 billion
Total cost of industrial load shedding
to the economy
Rs 219 billion
Cost as percentage of GDP
2%
Loss of employment in the economy
400,000
Loss of exports
Rs 75 billion
(equivalent to US $ 1 billion)
Source: IPP estimates listed in Beacon House National University publication: State of the
Economy – Emerging from Crisis 2008
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
5
[email protected]
ECONOMIC IMPACT DUE TO ENERGY DEFICIT
For firms with self generation
Additional cost of Power self Generation
Value Added Loss
Total Cost
Rs 32 billion
Rs 42 billion
Rs 74 billion
For firms without self generation
Additional cost of Power self Generation
Value Added Loss
Total Cost
Overall Cost to the Industrial Sector
Cost as % of Industrial value added
Percentage loss of Production
Loss of industrial Employment
Rs 6 billion
Rs 77 billion
Rs 83 billion
Rs 157 billion
9%
7%
300,000 workers
Source: IPP estimates listed in Beacon House National University publication: State of the Economy – Emerging from Crisis 2008
6
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
Options
• Continue Importing Furnace Oil leading to increasing import bill.
• Improve and identify Alternate/Renewable Energy
• Develop Hydel Projects
• Minimize T&D Losses and take efficiency improvement
measures.
• Exploit indigenous resources, such as Thar Coal which has a
generation potential of 100,000 MW consuming 536 million
tonnes/year (Enough resources for more than three centuries).
– Total reserve is equivalent to 50 billion tone of oil (more than Iran and Saudi
Arabia combined oil reserves) or over 2000 TCF of Gas (42 times greater than
total gas reserves discovered in Pakistan so far)
7
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
Pakistan’s Coal Reserves
Sindh
185,457 million tonnes
Punjab
235 million tonnes
Balochistan
217 million tonnes
NWFP
90 million tonnes
Thar
Azad Kashmir
9 million tonnes
8
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
COMPARISON OF STRIPPING RATIO, HEATING VALUE &
GENERATION OF LIGNITE IN OTHER COUNTRIES
India
Neyvelli lignite 7:1
Heating value = 5200 Btu/lb
Total generation = 2,740 MW
Germany
Rhineland lignite 4.9:1 (m3:t)
Heating value = 4,514 to 11054 Btu / lb
Total generation = 10,289 MW
Hungary
Hungary lignite 9:1 (m3:t)
Heating value = 3,035 Btu / lb
Total generation = 1,852 MW
THAR COAL
Lignite 6:1
Heating Value: 6200 ~ 11,000 Btu/lb
Total generation = 0 MW
9
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
Comparison Of Coal Quality
Thar Block VI
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
10
[email protected]
CREDIBILITY OF RESERVES
Studies Conducted By:






USGS
John T. Boyd
RWE
Shenhua
GSP
SCA
► All studies confirm presence of huge coal reserves
11
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
CHEMICAL ANALYSIS
Weighted Average chemical Analyses of Thar Coal
Bloc
ks
As Received Values (%)
Heating Values (Btu/lb)
Moisture
Ash
Vol.
Matter
Fixed
Carbon
Sulphur
As Rcvd
Dry
I
43.13
6.53
30.11
20.11
0.92
6,398
10,461
II
48.89
5.21
26.55
19.37
1.05
5,780
11,353
III
45.41
6.14
28.51
19.56
1.12
5,875
10,880
III-B
47.72
9.30
25.49
16.79
1.15
4,808
-
IV
43.24
6.56
29.04
21.13
1.20
5,971
10,723
V
36.82
8.92
38.24
28.22
1.20
4,748
VI
38.32
7.62
36.22
30.13
1.52
10,514
VII
48.27
8.03
25.30
19.56
1.16
5,441
-
VIII
49.57
7.78
24.32
18.10
1.44
5,302
-
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
12
[email protected]
UNDERGROUND WATER RESOURCES
Three water aquifers at an average depth of 50m, 120m and more
than 200 meters:
►
First aquifer above the coal zone
►
Second aquifer within the coal zone at 120 meters depth:
Varying thickness upto 68.74 meters
►
Third aquifer below the coal zone at 200 meters depth:
Varying thickness upto 47 meters
13
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
Why Thar Coal?
• Current dependable power supply hovers
around 14000 MW in summer whereas it drops
down in winter.
• On the other hand power demand in year 2030
would reach more than 100,000 MW
• In view of the power generation and energy
demand, Thar’s rich coal reserves not only
promise energy independence for Pakistan but
also offer lots of opportunities for prospective
investors
14
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
Annual Savings in Foreign Exchange from Thar Block II
Cumulative savings of over USD 87 Billion from Block II alone
due to PKR devaluation and oil price increase. (fuel
replacement savings)
4000 MW
600 MW
NPV of USD 31 billion Discounted @ US CPI 3%
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
15
[email protected]
Benefit to Economy – Reduction in Power Generation Cost
Net Present Value of Savings is Rs. 3.2 Trillion from Block II alone
Year
2016
2025
2035
2045
2055
2065
2071
Price of Oil (USD/bbl) *
81
95
115
138
165
198
221
Differential B/w RFO &
Coal Tariff (Usc/kWh)
4
5
7
8
13
14
15
Cumulative Savings (Rs B)
14
1,026
4,055
10,403
23,341
49,732
77,372
Source: CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) for oil prices ;
RFO and Coal Prices calculated from crude oil prices through historical regression analysis
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
16
[email protected]
KEY REQUIREMENTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THAR COAL
• To make available robust infrastructure.
• Developing the coal sector policy and regulatory framework.
• Setting
up operational
environmental and
management framework for coal to power sector
social
• Updating/developing key technical, financial, market and
local impact analysis and other information relevant to the
investor
• Preparation of Policy documents for conducting ICB for Thar
blocks.
17
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
Challenges for all Blocks
Challenges
– Infrastructure must be completed
»
»
»
»
Water supply
Roads
Railways
Transmission lines
Short Term
Short Term
Mid term
Mid term
– Power line for waste mining and pumping
required
– Human Resource development
18
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]
THANK YOU
19
www.sindhmines.gov.pk
[email protected]