Transcript MA06_ppt
PHASTAR The Future for the Western Statistics and Programming Communities in the Face of Globalisation Kevin Kane Overview – – – – – The Global Economy Pharmaceutical Companies East vs West Stats & Programming The Future Global Economy • The events of 2007 – “Great Repression” • Economic historian Niall Ferguson – “Great Contraction” • Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff – “Great Crash” • University of Berkeley’s Robert Reich Capitalism The whole intellectual edifice of financial economics collapsed Alan Greenspan Large swaths of economics are going to have to be rethought Larry Summers The notion that unfettered markets, all by themselves, can ensure economic prosperity are growth… is over Joseph Stiglitz Basic Ideas • Old Capitalism focus is profit • Ignores impact of people, communities, society and the environment • Thin value • Constructive Capitalism is sustainable, and does not allow people, communities, society and the natural world to come to economic harm Pharmaceutical Companies Demand for New Medicines • • • • • Heart attacks Cancer survival Anti-infectives New medical conditions Respiratory illnesses Ageing populations Costs of Drug Development Solutions? • • • • • • Sufficient resources at early stages Network of R&D resources Biomarkers & Personalised Medicine? Adaptive Designs? More innovation, less “me-too” Cheaper R&D costs Other Pressures • • • • Cost-constrained healthcare systems More demanding regulatory systems More informed and active patients $209BN of drug sales at risk from patent expiries • Some are predicting the extinction of the industry East vs West • Interesting survey looking at growth in Europe, US and Asia • Scores based on management practices:– Monitoring – Target Setting – Incentives Management Practice Scores Management practice vs GDP US/UK/India/China The Future • Big Questions • Asia: Price, Quality • West: Price, Demand Prices/Wages Price: Predicting the Future East Years Prices/Wages Price: Predicting the Future West East Years Reality This is certain… …work that can be done cheaper in Asia will move to Asia – e.g. straightforward reporting What can the West do? • • • • • Comparison with Constructive Capitalism Stats/programming are an R&D cost Adding more value Work with our global partners Technological advances Adding more value.. • Stats/programming as part of a drug development company • Consider the whole cost (not thin value) • Involvement in work to improve the probability of drugs getting on the market • Better study design • Reduce trial cycle time Technological Advances • • • • Labour intensive process My 21 year view of technology advances Standardisation & Efficiency What I think we need Prices/Wages Price: Predicting the Future West (routine) East Years Prices/Wages Price: Predicting the Future West (innovative) West (routine) East Years In Summary… The West must compete in the global economy through specialisation and by adding value to everything we do. Developed nations can maintain their share of world markets by making more sophisticated products and incorporating technological prowess at every stage. They must compete on quality rather than price. Peter Mandelson, 2011