Transcript NAMWA project 2008

SEEA as a framework for assessing
policy responses to climate change
Prepared for the IAOS conference
Sjoerd Schenau and Roel Delahaye
Statistics Netherlands
Content
• Introduction
• Linking SEEA with DPSIR model; what
elements of SEEA apply to which part of
the DPSIR model
• Climate change policy questions that can be
addressed in the SEEA; mitigation and
adaptation
• Conclusions
Introduction
• SEEA – System of Environmental and
Economic accounting
• Climate change in volume III of SEEA
• Focus on relationships between economic
activities and climate change
• In context of the DPSIR (Driving forcesPressure-State-Impact-Response) model
Individual
statistics
•High diversity
•Little coherence
•Independent
development
•Difficult correlation
SEEA framework
Still room for diversity
•Solid foundation
•More coherence
•Single architecture
Introduction
• SEEA – System of Environmental and
Economic accounting
• Climate change in volume III of SEEA2012
• Focus on relationships between economic
activities and climate change
• In context of the DPSIR (Driving forcesPressure-State-Impact-Response) model
Increased production, population,
energy demand etc.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Driving forces
Pressure
Economic
developments
Human activities
affecting the
environment
DPSIR model
Response
State
… of society to
solve the problem
Quality of the
environment
Climate variables
Impact
Effects of a changed
environment
Impact on agriculture, water supply, sea level etc.
Stimulate renewable
energy production
Energy saving
Driving forces
Pressure
Economic
developments
Human activities
affecting the
environment
Response
State
… of society to
solve the problem
Mitigation
Adaptation
Quality of the
environment
Impact
Effects of a changed
environment
Construction of dikes
and sea walls
Climate change policies issues
and SEEA
1. To what extent is human induced climate
change actually taking place ?
Can SEEA be used ?  NO !
2. What actions need to be taken to reduce the
emissions of greenhouse gasses (mitigation) ?
Can SEEA be used  Yes !
3. What actions need to be taken to deal with the
consequences of global warming and minimize
the impacts (adaptation)?
Can SEEA be used  Yes !
Applications and policy uses of
SEEA to climate change
• Based on examples of the Dutch
environmental accounts
• Policy questions regarding mitigation and
adaptation
• Descriptive statistics and modelling
Are the production induced GHG emissions
decoupling with respect to economic growth ?
160
index 1990 = 100
140
120
100
80
60
40
1990
1995
GDP
2000
Greenhouse gasses
2005
CO2
CH4
2009
N2O
How can the change in GHG emissions over
time be explained ?
80
Mton CO2
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
1990
Emission intensity
1995
Energy intensity
2000
Economic structure
2005
Economic growth
CO2 emissions
2009
What are the economic drivers behind the
GHG emissions ?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Total economy
Agriculture
Food industry
Construction
Other manufacturing
Transport and communication
Financial Services
Government, health care, other services
Export
Consumption government
Consumption households
Investments and stock changes
80%
90%
100%
What is the national carbon footprint ?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------2009
1996
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Mton CO 2 -equivalents
86
105
99
103
18
3
4. GHG by Dutch residents
246
232
5. GHG Dutch consumption needs
(carbon footprint) = 4-3
228
228
1. GHG embodied in import
2. GHG embodied in export
3. Environmental balance of trade
= 2-1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is the share of renewable energy in the
total energy consumption ?
3,5
%
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1990
1995
Wind
2000
Solar
Biomass
Other
2005
2008
Taxes on energy and transport: to what extent
does the ‘polluter pay principle’ apply ?
100%
80%
60%
Households
Other services
Transport
40%
Manufacturing and construction
Agriculture
20%
0%
Total energy and transport
tax
CO2 emissions
How much do mitigating activities contribute to
economic growth ?
Environmental goods and service industry
mln euro
%
3000
0,60
2500
0,50
2000
0,40
1500
0,30
1000
0,20
500
0,10
0
0,00
1995
2000
Value added
Percentage of GDP
2005 2006* 2007*
What is the potential economic impact of a sea
level rise ?
Employment
Total Dutch economy
Mining
Industry
Health care and other services
Government
Transport and communication
Financial and business services
Trade, hotel and restaurants
Construction
Electricity supply
Agriculture and fishing
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
How much does a government spend on climate
change adaptation measures ?
Expenditures on the maintenance of dikes and seawalls
mln euro
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Conclusions
• The SEEA, together with the SNA and related satellite
accounts, has the potential to bring together in one
consistent analytical framework all relevant
information with regard to the relationships between the
economy and climate change.
• SEEA as an integrated framework is particularly suitable
to asses the policy responses to climate change. It
provides all the essential information to monitor,
understand and analyse the relation between the
economy and climate change essential for developing
both mitigation and adaptation strategies.