Transcript Power strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East wind

energy strategy of Russia
(ES – 2020)
East vector
Vitaly Bushuev
- General director Stats Institute
of Energy Strategy
Minpromenergy of Russia
Moscow
May 2005
Share of FEC branches in national economy
of Russia in 2003, (%)
In GDP a share of FEC 25,4 %,
В ВВП доля ТЭК 25,4%, в том числе:
including:
В экспорте
56,3%,
том
In
export a доля
share ТЭК
of FEC
56,3в%,
including:
числе:
39,5
14,4
6,8
0,7
1,4
3,5
0,3
15,1
Поступления
налоговых
и таможенных
платежей
в
Receipts of
tax and customs
payments
in the consolidated
budget.
консолидированный
бюджет. Доля ТЭК 32,8%, в том числе:
A share
of FEC of 32,8 %, including:
Нефтяная
Petroleum
20
Газовая
Gas
8,6
Electropower
Э/энергетическая
0,6
3,6
Coal
Угольная
2
Energy streams of Russia
( million tons of conditional fuel – mln t c.f.)
Coal 162.8
Coal 33,9
Export
Petroleum 269,3
Gas 684.1
Natural
fuel
Petroleum
539,6
Gas 213,3
Autogasoline, diesel fuel,
fuel black oil 82,0
Extraction and
manufacture
Other mineral oil 24,9
1513,1
electric power 4,4
Hydroelectricity
55,5
Nuclear Energy
44,1
Other 27,0
Resources - all
Coal 143,1
Coal 13,0
Petroleum
8,9
Petroleum & mineral oil 59,7
Import
Gas 7,8
Other receipts
Gas 473,7
Thermal power
plants & Boilerhouses 236,1
Autogasoline 38,4,
diesel fuel 34,8, fuel
black oil 39,7
electric power 95,3
Other 27,0
Russia sends on the world market more than 40 % of all power resources (from them
more than 1/4 falls to crude petroleum and natural gas).
Internal
consumption
In structure of internal consumption 1/2 falls to natural gas and 50 % of this
consumption falls to fuel needs of power stations and boiler-houses.
3
Forecast dynamics of growth of GDP and consumption of
energy Russia for the period till 2020 and in relation to a
level of 2000
Index
D&J
неделя
30-Dec-85
1550,5
31-Dec-85
1546,7
2-Jan-86
1537,7
3-Jan-86
1549,2 1546,025
6-Jan-86
1547,6
7-Jan-86
1565,7
8-Jan-86
1526,6
9-Jan-86
1518,2
10-Jan-86
1513,5
13-Jan-86
1520,5
14-Jan-86
1519
15-Jan-86
1527,3
16-Jan-86
1541,6
17-Jan-86
1536,7
20-Jan-86
1529,1
21-Jan-86
1514,5
22-Jan-86
1502,3
23-Jan-86
1511,2
24-Jan-86
1529,9
27-Jan-86
1537,6
28-Jan-86
1556,4
Growth of GDP and
consumption of energy at
specific power consumption
2000
Forecast consumption of
energy without change of
structure of economy
Forecast consumption
of energy
29-Jan-86
1558,9
30-Jan-86
1552,2
31-Jan-86
1571
3-Feb-86
1594,3
4-Feb-86
1593,2
5-Feb-86
1593,1
6-Feb-86
1600,7
7-Feb-86
1613,4
10-Feb-86
1626,4
11-Feb-86
1622,8
12-Feb-86
1629,9
13-Feb-86
1645,1
14-Feb-86
1664,5
18-Feb-86
1678,8
19-Feb-86
1658,3
20-Feb-86
1672,8
21-Feb-86
1697,7
24-Feb-86
1698,3
25-Feb-86
1692,7
26-Feb-86
1696,9
27-Feb-86
1714
28-Feb-86
1709,1
3-Mar-86
1696,7
4-Mar-86
1686,4
5-Mar-86
1686,7
6-Mar-86
1696,6
7-Mar-86
1699,8
10-Mar-86
1703
11-Mar-86
1746,1
12-Mar-86
1745,5
13-Mar-86
1753,7
14-Mar-86
1792,7
17-Mar-86
1776,9
18-Mar-86
1789,9
19-Mar-86
1788
20-Mar-86
1804,2
21-Mar-86
1768,6
24-Mar-86
1782,9
1534,32
Dkd
Ср. месячн
1_2
god
1536,93
1529,02
1529,03
1517,4
1555,22
1_4
1537,11
1534,85
1598,94
Share making savings of
energy an increasing result
by 2000, including
technological and
organizational (ТиО) and
structural (С)
Year All
1603,52
1637,74
1653,17
1676,9
1702,2
1701,45
1652,74
1693,24
1694,87
1748,2
1774,63
1785,52
Change of structure of economy and technological measures of economy of energy will reduce specific consumption
of energy of GDP by 26-27 % by 2010 and from 45 up to 55 % by 2020. Thus up to 1/2 growth of economy may be
received due to change of its structure without increase of expenses of energy, 20 more % will be given with the
technological savings of energy and about 1/3 gains of GDP will demand increase of a power consumption.
25-Mar-86
1778,5
4
ES - 2020
Strategic reference points
1. Energy safety
2. Energy efficiency
3. Budgetary efficiency of energy
4. Ecological safety
5
Energy politics of Russia
1. Using bowels
2. A home market
3. Fuel and energy balance
4. A regional politics
5. An external energy politics
6. An innovational politics
6
An external energy politics
1.Maintenance of competitiveness in the
traditional markets (Europe)
2. Diversify structures of export
( the mineral oil, the liquefied natural gas, the
electric power)
3. Diversify commodity markets
( growth of a share of export to the countries
ATR:
Petroleum about 3 % up to 30 %,
Gas about 0 % up to 15 %,
Development of the market of USA)
7
The forecast of a gain of stocks of petroleum
in Russia till 2020 on regions
Optimum variant
Moderate variant
Far East
(Sakhalin)
East-Siberian
European
part
WestSiberian
Far East
(Sakhalin)
East-Siberian
European
part
WestSiberian
Programs and should provide
conditions of licensing of bowels
expanded reproduction of
mineral-raw-material base:
Gain of stocks of petroleum in
quantity 7,5-10 billion т.
Thus probable stocks and
resources of the distributed fund
in the basic areas of an oil
recovery may provide
reproduction of mineral-rawmaterial base the nearest 10-15
years no more than on 30-40 %.
Other stocks should be added
due to investigation and
development of new territories
and water areas of Russia.
Attraction of investments in
volume 45-47 billion is
necessary
The main areas of a gain of
stocks of hydrocarbon fuel
material will be West-Siberian,
Leno-Tungus and TimanoPechersk provinces.
8
Resource base of the gas industry (the
reconnoitered stocks of gas), trillion cubic m
In total on Russia – 47,2 trillion cubic m
Open Society " Gazprom " - supervises about 60 % of stocks of gas of Russia
9
Manufacture of initial fuel and energy resources
in Russia
Moderate variant
Optimum variant
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
mln t c.f.
Nuclear
Energy, billion
kwh
Hydroelectriciti, billion
kwh
Coal,
mln t
Gas, billion
cubic m
Petroleum,
mln t
10
The forecast of an oil recovery in Russia till 2020, million т
The factors determining prospects of branch
Quality of the prepared raw-material base
Level of the world prices for petroleum
Tax policy of the state
Attraction of necessary volumes of investments
Attraction of investments in extraction
in volume $130-135 billion is necessary
In total on
Russia
Optimum variant
Moderate variant
Critical variant
Far East
East-Siberian
European part
West-Siberian
11
The forecast of the price for petroleum WTI till 2006
60
55
The actual prices
Model
The forecast
50
45
$/bl
40
35
30
25
20
за 1998 г
ф - $14,4;
м - $12,8
за 1999 г
ф - $19,3;
м - $15,5
за 2000 г
ф - $30,3;
м - $23,3
за 2001 г
ф - $25,9;
м - $31,1
за 2002 г
ф - $26,1;
м - $25,5
за 2003 г
ф - $31,1;
м - $29,2
15
за 2004 г
ф - $37,4
(1п/г);
м - $34,8
за 2005 г
ф- ;
м - $41,0
за 2006 г
ф- ;
м - $32,1
10
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
12
The synthetic long-term forecast of the prices for petroleum
13
Territorial structure of extraction of gas (billion cubic м)
Optimum variant
European part
West-Siberian
Moderate variant
East-Siberian
Far East
(the forecast)
Essentially the territorial structure of extraction of gas will change: the share
of Eastern Siberia and Far East considerably will increase at reduction of
densities of Western Siberia.
14
Export of energy resources from Russia
Dominant exported energy resources
during all period petroleum and gas
will stay.
Optimum variant
Export of all, mln t c.f.
Moderate variant
Petroleum & mineral oil, mln t
Coal, mln t c.f.
Gas, billion cubic m
Electric power, billion kwh
15
Circuits oil- and gas mains
Circuits oil mains
in territory of Russia
The plan of creation gas mains
networks in Northeast Asia
Circuits gas mains
in territory of Russia
Planned routes of pipelines
Possible routes of pipelines
Directions of gas
streams
16
Pipeline projects in Eastern Siberia and on Far East
Oil pipelines working
Gas mains working
Oil pipelines projected
Gas mains projected
17
The basic inter-regional streams of the Russian coal
Consumption of own resources
Negative
Balance of export Positive
import
Freight traffics of coal, mln t c.f.
(numerator-2002, denominator-2020)
Essential change of territorial structure of extraction and consumption of coal
causes increase of inter-regional deliveries of firm fuel in a direction the East West about 65 million т in 2002 up to 90 million т in 2010 г and 130 million т in
2020 г
18
Structure of manufacture of the electric power in 2020 and
priorities of territorial development of electric
power industry (optimistic variant)
Economy of gas in the
European part 7-8 billion
cubic m per one year
Increase of manufacture on
coal ТЭС and the decision of a
problem of closed capacities
of the Siberian hydroelectric
power station
European part
Siberian and
Far East
433 billion kwh
932 billion kwh
European part
Far East
Siberian
Hydroelectric power station,
The maximal development of the
ТЭС and gas thermal power
atomic power station;
stations in cities
Modernisation ТЭС on gas; ТЭС at a corner and
development ГТГУ-ГТУ
water-power engineering
19
Wind and geothermal energy of Russia
Wind energy of Russia
Geothermal energy of Russia
20
The forecast of investment needs of
a fuel and energy complex (billion US dollars)
Petroleum industry
The coal industry
The gas industry
Electric power industry
The total amount of investments in reconstruction and development of power
sector may make from 260 up to 300 billion dollars in 2001-2010 and from 400
up to 510 billion dollars the next decade. The share of a fuel and energy complex
in the general investments of Russia will make 33-35 % in 2001-2005, will
decrease up to 31-33 % in 2006-2010 and up to 20-24 % to 2020.
21
Dynamics of emissions of hotbed gases
and firm substances (mln t)
The level of emissions appropriate to obligations on Кiot to the report
billion t
equivalent
Optimum variant
Volume of quotas for Russia for the
first budgetary period 2008-2012
Moderate variant
Emissions of firm
substances
The volume of emissions of hotbed gases in fuel and energy sphere to
2010 will make 75-80 % from a level 1990 and even to 2020 will not reach
this level.
22