Transcript Ethiopia`s Climate Resilient Green Economy

FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AUTHORITY
Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient
Green Economy
Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025
ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
GDP, billion USD
Agriculture
Industry
Services
147
~10% p.a.
29%
Key transitions
▪
Diminishing weight of
agriculture from 42% to
29% of GDP
▪
Migration from agriculture
jobs to services and
industry
▪
Reaching of middleincome status before 2025
32%
51
30
39%
2010
2015 GTP
2025 projected
Population
mln (mid-year)
79
89
116
GDP/cap.
In USD
378
565
1.271
Source: GoE GTP; EDRI
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ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
Why……?
•Ethiopia will see further warming in all seasons of between
0.7°C and 2.3°C by the 2020s and of between 1.4°C and
2.9°C by the 2050s. This warming will be associated with
heat waves and higher evapo-transpiration.
•More regular heavy rainfall events are expected and this is
likely to result in increased flooding.
•Recent studies indicate, unless steps to build resilience are
effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth
by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year.
Why
ENVIRONMENTAL
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Justifications for developing a green economy :
▪ natural resource assets
▪ global carbon finance
▪ co-benefits (for health, wellbeing, economic growth
and natural resource conservation)
▪ Ethiopia is well positioned to become a regional and
global leader in low carbon growth which will have a
legacy and commercial benefit long into the future.
▪ huge low carbon potential – (ex: rich in forests, hydro,
solar, wind & geothermal energy
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If a typical development path were followed, emissions
would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt (2010 to 2030)
BAU emissions development
Mt CO2e per year
CAGR1
Percent
Drivers and rationale
▪
185
Agriculture
4.4%
1.8
90
5
40
Forestry
Power
Transport
2.6%
11.2%
species (doubling from 2010-30)
Soil: Increase in cultivated land (crops
production) and synthetic fertilizer
▪ Average growth of cropland (estimated to reach
▪
+167%
75
t CO2e/capita
▪ Livestock: Increase in cattle population and other
3.0
400
150
ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
3.9% per year)
Increase in population leading to higher fuelwood
consumption
▪ Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100%
clean/renewable generation for on-grid (2014)
▪ Increase in passenger-km traveled projected
▪
based on elasticity to real GDP
Increase in ton-km of cargo transported based on
elasticity to real GDP
▪ Cement production (steep increase in GTP,
55
5
70
5
5 5
2010
10
2030 – BAU
Industry
Buildings
15.7%
▪
3.9%
thereafter approach to MIC-level)
Establishment and scale-up of industries in
textile, steel, fertilizer, mining and others
▪ Buildings and solid/liquid waste emissions
1 Compound average growth rate
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Developing a green economy combines economic
development and abatement
ENVIRONMENTAL
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Focus CRGE
Combining economic growth with
low GHG
emissions, e.g.
▪
▪
Sustainable land
use via efficient
agriculture
Sequestration in
forests
▪
Expansion of
renewable energy
▪
Resource efficient
advanced
technologies
Green Economy
Development
Green
Economy
Abatement
Resilience
Green economy can help to avoid lock-in in old technology,
unsustainable growth and land use
Source: CRGE
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The strategy for a green economy is based on four pillars
ENVIRONMENTAL
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Middle income country in 2025
Agriculture –
Improving crop and
livestock practices
▪ Reduce defores-
▪
▪
▪
▪
tation by agricultural intensification
and irrigation of
degraded land
Use lower-emitting
techniques
Improve animal
value chain
Shift animal mix
Mechanize draft
power
Forestry –
Protecting and
growing forests as
carbon stocks
Power – Deploying
renewable and
clean power
generation
▪ Reduce demand
▪ Build renewable
▪
for fuelwood via
efficient stoves
Increase sequestration by afforestation/reforestation
and forest management
▪
power generation
capacity and
switch-off fossil
fuel power
generation
Export renewable
power to substitute
for fossil fuel
power generation
abroad
Industry, transport
and buildings –
Using advanced
technologies
▪ Improve industry
energy efficiency
▪ Improve production processes
▪ Tighten fuel
efficiency of cars
▪ Construct electric
rail network
▪ Substitute fossil
fuel by biofuels
▪ Improve waste
management
Green economy strategy
Source: CRGE
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The CRGE outlines how Ethiopia will reduce 255 mtCO2 per
year while ensuring economic growth
Emissions per year1, Mt CO2e
t CO2e/capita
ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
Agriculture
Power
Industry
Forestry
Transport
Others
400
90
185
-64%
130
150
75
55 5
5
5 5
400
90
40
10
5
20
5
145
70
10
2010
2030
BAU
1.8
3.0
AgriForestry Transculture
port
Industry Buildings
Green
Economy
2030
Additional
abatement
potential of
~19 Mt CO2e
from exporting
green power
to regional
markets
1.1
1 Rounded numbers
2 Currently estimated emissions form buildings and waste
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Challenges
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•MRV – of the activities outlined under the
CRGE
•MRV of financing the CRGE activities
• Setting baselines for reducing emissions
and vulnerability reductions
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ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
Thank you
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