Transcript (Z-scores) National Center for Education Statistics 2001

Demography or Economics?
The Impact on Admissions of External Factors
D. Scott Looney, Director of External Affairs
Cranbrook Schools, Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
[email protected]
248-645-3409
The Economy
Demography
Enrollment:
Public & Charter Schools
Private (Parochial)
Independent
The Economy
Demography
Enrollment:
Public & Charter Schools
Private (Parochial)
Independent
Assumptions
 Demography and Economics Matter
– Probably more than good marketing and admission
practices
 Demographic, Economic and Socio-graphic predictions are
only as good as the set of assumptions on which they are
based (baby boomlet error).
 Economic and Demographic trends are relational.
 When the Economy and Demography are pointed in the same
direction (good or bad) they are compounding.
 It will get either better or worse, eventually…both economic
and demographic trends are cyclical…
– (but only somewhat predicable).
More Assumptions
 All Demography that matters is local…even to a large
extent for boarding schools.
 The location of a school can either insulate it from
negative impacts of national demographic and
economic downturns, or intensify the effects.
 Schools which may feel isolated from national
demographic or economic trends, can still be indirectly
affected by the Government’s reaction to the trends.
 Demographic research is essential, and not necessarily
difficult or expensive.
Questions for Another Day…
Impact of Growth of other Types of Schools…?
Independent
Enrollment
Public Enrollment
Charter
Schools?
Private (Parochial)
Enrollment
Growth in Charter Schools
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Center for Education Reform
Economy or Demography?
Which has the greater impact on enrollment
growth: the economy or demographics?
Z - Scores
 A “Z – Score” is a score that is converted to a common scale where
scores from sets of data with different units can be compared.
 Z = (Raw Score – Mean of Group Scores)
Standard Deviation
 In other words…what is the ratio of the difference in this specific score
from the group mean (average) to the standard deviation of this group.
Z-score education and explanation courtesy of Tom White, SSATB
12
10
Numbers
1 through 10
Graphed
Chronologically
8
6
Chron.
4
2
Numbers
1 through 10
Converted to
Z scores
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
0
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
Z scores
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Z Scores (Raw Score – Mean) / Standard Deviation
Private, Public, NAIS Enrollment (3 –17 yrs),
K to 12th , SSAT Test Takers and GDP
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
Population
SSAT
Public z
Cranbrook
Private z
GDP
NAIS z
Per Cap Income
Z Scores (Raw Score – Mean) / Standard Deviation
Private, Public, NAIS Enrollment (3 –17 yrs),
K to 12th , SSAT Test Takers and GDP
3
2
1
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
90
19
89
19
87
88
19
-1
19
19
86
0
-2
Population
SSAT
Public K-12
Cranbrook
Private K-12
GDP
NAIS
Income
National Center for Education Statistics 2001
Public, Private and NAIS Enrollments
1986-1999
14,000,000
1990
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Public 9-12
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Private 9-12
1991
1992
1993
1994
NAIS 9-12
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Private and NAIS Enrollments 1986-1999
1,400,000
1990
1993
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Private 9-12
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
NAIS 9-12
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
NAIS Enrollments 1986-1999
140000
135000
130000
125000
1989 & 1990
120000
115000
110000
105000
NAIS 9-12
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
K- 12th Public, Private, NAIS Core School
Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers, GDP and Per Capita
Income in Relation to Population of Children
(Difference in Z-Scores of School Age Children, 1986 - 1999)
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Public
Private School Enrollment
NAIS
SSAT Takers
Cranbrook
GDP
Income
SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis &
The National Center for Education Statistics 2001
K- 12th Public, Private & NAIS Core School
Enrollment, Population of School Age Children,
SSAT Test Takers in Relation to Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) 1986 to 1999 (Difference in Z-Scores from the Public School
Enrollment)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Population
Public
Private
NAIS
SSAT
Income
NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis &
The National Center for Education Statistics 2001
9th - 12th Private School Enrollment, NAIS Core
School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers and GDP in
Relation to Public School Enrollments
(Difference in Z-Scores from the Public School Enrollment, 1986-1999)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Private School Enrollment
SSAT Takers
GDP
NAIS
NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis &
The National Center for Education Statistics 2001
9th - 12th Public, Private & NAIS Core School
Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers in Relation to Gross
Domestic Product (GDP)
4
(Difference in Z-Scores from the Gross Domestic Product – Inflation
Adjusted, 1986 to 1999)
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Public
Private
SSAT
NAIS
NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis &
The National Center for Education Statistics 2001
Enrollment
Public vs. Private Enrollment Growth
2000-2011 (Z-scores)
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
Public K-12
Private K-12
National Center for Education Statistics 2001
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistics of Public Elementary
and Secondary Schools; Common Core of Data surveys; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National
Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (This table was prepared May 2001.)
Enrollment Growth N.A.I.S. vs.
Public and Parochial
25
20
15
Public
All-Private
NAIS
10
5
0
1 year
5 year
10 year
NAIS Statistics 1997, Vol.1
The Large get Larger, the Small get Smaller
N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Size (1987-1997)
50
40
30
20
10 year
5 year
1 year
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Under 200
201-300
301-500
501-700
Above 700
NAIS Statistics 1998, Vol 1.
N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Type
(1989-1999)
30
25
20
15
10
1 year
5 year
10 year
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Day
Day-Boarding Boarding-Day
Boarding
NAIS Statistics 2000, Vol 1.
SSAT Test Takers 1956 to 1999
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998
Courtesy of SSATB
Private School Enrollment Projection by
National Department of Education (in thousands)
5,870
5,860
5,850
5,840
5,830
5,820
5,810
5,800
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
National Center for Education Statistics 2001
Population Demographics
U.S. Population Growth, 1950 to 2000
32.7
35
30
28
24
25
20
15
23
22
18.4
13.4
11.4
10
13.2
9.8
5
0
1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Growth (in Millions)
Percent Change
Source: US Census 2000 Brief: Population Change and Distribution, 1990-2000
Number of Births (in thousands) in the United States,
1909 - 1994
Age 43
Age 28
Age 12
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Age
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
0
American Demographics, 1997
Numbers of Births in the United States 1951-2011
4,500
4,300
4,100
3,900
3,700
3,500
3,300
3,100
2,900
2,700
19
51
19
54
19
57
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
2,500
Actual
Projected
National Center for Education Statistics 2001
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current
Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population
Estimates for the 1990s," January 2001, and "Annual Projections of the
Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000; and U.S. Department
of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS),
Annual Summary of Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: United States,
various years, National Vital Statistics Reports; and unpublished tabulations.
(This table was prepared May 2001.)
U.S. Population by Age, 2000
Boomers
Boomlet
U.S. Population by Age, 2025
Boomers
Boomlet
U.S. Population by Age, 2050
Boomers
Boomlet
U.S. Population by Age, 2100
Boomlet
The Boomlet Distribution
American Demographics June 1999
Populations of School Age Children 1986 to 2011
(in thousands)
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
0
3 & 4 yrs.
5 to 13 yrs.
14 to 17 yrs.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population
Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000. (This table was prepared June 2001.)
Populations of Children Age 14 to 17 from 1986 to 2011
(in thousands)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
0
14 to 17 yrs.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population
Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000. (This table was prepared June 2001.)
School age U.S Population to 2050 (in thousands)
American Demograpics, July 1996
50,000
45,000
40,000
1996
2010
2030
2050
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Under 5
5 to 13
14 to 17
U.S. Teen Population ages 12-19 (in millions)
American Demographics, November 1995
33.9
35
30
25
34.9
31.7
29.1
“What number do you think is the ideal number
+9% for a+7%
+3%
of children
family to have?”
20
15
10
Two Children
1976 1986 1996
50% 50% 55%
More than Two
1976 1986 1996
33% 37% 29%
General5Social Survey
National Opinion Research Center
University of Chicago, 1997
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
School Age Population
 Between 1996 and 2004 the numbers of school age
children is projected to increase each year.
 Between 2005 and 2010 the numbers of school age
children should be stagnant or decreasing slightly each
year.
 Between 2010 and 2020 there will be dramatically
decreasing numbers of school age children, so…
 Between 1996 and 2020 the total number of school age
children will increase very little.
 After 2020 there should be a dramatic increase in the
number of school age children.
Suburbs Gain
(percent living in central cities, suburbs and non-metropolitan areas, 1950 and 1998)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Central Cities
Suburbs
1950
1998
Non-Metro Areas
Economic Factors
Per Capita Income 1986 to 2011
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
Actual
Middle Projection
Low Pro.
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
$10,000
High Pro
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistics of State School Systems; Common Core of Data survey; Early
Estimates survey; and Revenue Receipts from State Sources Model; DRI•WEFA, "U.S. Quarterly Model," and National Education Association,
Estimates School Statistics. (Latest edition 2001. Copyright 2001 by the National Education Association. All rights reserved.) (This table was prepared
June 2001.)
Gross Domestic Product (in Billions)
1929 to 2000 in Real Dollars and 1996 Constant Dollars
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
GDP Real
GDP 1996 Dollars
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
1947
1944
1941
1938
1935
1932
1929
0
The Spending Wave
Births Logged for Peak in Family Spending
Immigration
U.S. Births
Logged for
Peak Spending
6
5.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
5
Dow Adjusted
For
Inflation
50,000
30,000
4.5
4
3.5
10,000
3.5
3
3
2.5
5,000
2.5
Immigration-Adjusted Births (Millions)
53
57
19
61
45
49
37
41
29
33
21
25
13
17
'09
'05
'01
93
97
85
89
77
81
69
73
2
61
65
2
19
53
57
70,000
1,000
Dow
Dow Adjusted for Inflation (Log Scale)
H.S. Dent Foundation, from American Demographics, December 2000
Consumer Spending
Peak in Spending
Age 47
140
120
100
80
The Baby Boomers
60
40
20
2000 H.S. Dent Foundation from American Demographics, Dec. 2000
Age
69
67
65
63
61
59
57
55
53
51
49
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
0
Average Household Spending by Age
Group Indexed to 100, 1997
140
120
Average Total
100
80
60
40
20
0
Under
25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75 and
over
American Demographics April 1999
Income Demographic from 1997 to 2020
Number of Families (in Thousands)
(in thousand of families)
120000
over 150
125 to 150
100 to 125
75 to 100
60 to 75
50 to 60
40 to 50
30 to 40
20 to 30
10 to 20
0-10
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1997
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
ISACS homepage: (www.isacs.org)
Income Demographic in thousand of
families (from $75,000 to over $150,000)
Number of Families (in Thousands)
25000
over 150
20000
15000
125 to 150
10000
100 to 125
5000
75 to 100
0
1997
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
ISACS homepage: (www.isacs.org)
Percent of Household with Incomes of
$100,000 or more, 1980-1997 (in 1997 dollars)
10%
9.4%
9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
7.8%
8.1% 8.2%
7.7%
8%
7.4%
•In 1996,
67% of Americans
agreed
with
the7.3%statement:
“Both the
7.2%
7.2%
7% and the wife should contribute to the household income.”
husband
6.0%
6%
6.2%
5.4%
•In 1986,
4.7% 48% felt this way.
5% 4.8%only
5.1%
General Social Survey
4%
National Opinion Research Center
University of Chicago, 1997
3%
2%
1%
0%
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
American Demographics, Jan. 1999
Average Family Income by Educational
Attainment of the Householder, 1997
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Less than
HS
HS dropout
HS Grad
Some
College
Associate
Bachelors
Masters
Doctorate
Professional
Median Family Income by Educational
Attainment of Householder, 1973 & 1997 (in 1997 dollars)
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
1973
1997
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
<9th grade HS Dropout
HS Grad
1-3 yrs.
College
Bachelors
Graduate
Percent Change in Average Household Spending
by Age Group 1987 to 1997 (in 1997 Dollars)
20%
17.4%
15%
10%
4.1%
5%
2.2%
1.0%
0%
-1.0%
-5%
-9.1%
-9.1%
-10%
Under
25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75 and
over
American Demographics April 1999
For more resources on this topic, go to www.nais.org
[email protected]