Transcript CASE/NAIS 2006

Demonstrating the Value-added of an
Independent School Education
Jefferson Burnett
([email protected])
NAIS
Independent School Chairpersons Association, April 18, 2008
Overview
 Looking at Our World from the Outside/In, How Do External Factors
Shape Our Environment, Experience, and Reality?
 How do these relate to/connect with a school’s mission, what it does
to implement the mission, the outcomes…its value-added?
 How do we manage those external factors to ensure the long-term
institutional sustainability?
 Our World (External Factors)
 Economy
 Competition
 Demographics
 Public Perceptions of Independent Schools
 What This Tells Us and How We Enhance Our Value-added
 Case studies
 Relevancy
Pop Quiz
Pop
Quiz Question
  My
family
is facing #1
a decision about my…son. He is in a
A parent
is shopping
for schools,elementary
stops by to school,
see you,and
and he’s
asks
G/T
class in
our neighborhood
you this question: What is your school’s value-added?
been offered admission at a…local private
 school…Although
Pop Quiz Questionwe
#2 realize that there are many factors that
A go
parent
shopping
for schools
and stops
by choices,
a public magnet
can
intoisthe
plus/minus
columns
of both
we were
/charter/virtual
and asks
What on
is your
wondering
how school
to evaluate
the this
twoquestion:
based strictly
school’s value-added?
academic
rigor…how can we form an opinion of which
is “better”
academically?
AK from VA (WPost Feb
 option
Pop Quiz
Question
#3
How do the response differ?
08)

Pop Quiz Question #4
Is your school’s value-added proposition good enough in
today’s climate?
Our World: Trends
The Economy
The Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged for the first time
that a U.S. recession is possible because homebuilding, employment and
consumer spending will deteriorate. ``It now appears likely that real gross
domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and
So:could
What
the implications
of told
a bad
economy
for
evenare
contract
slightly,'' Bernanke
Congress's
Joint Economic
Committee
today. schools?
(4/2/08 Bloomberg)
independent

Merrill
Lynch
& Company,
the
investment bank,
posted
a loss for
on Thursday
–
Job
layoffs
=
fewer
applicants,
more
requests
and announced that it would lay off 10 percent of its work force or about
aidof the year. (4/17/08 NYT)
4,000financial
jobs by the end

– HigherAirlines
energy
costs
= increased
Continental
posted
a first-quarter
lossoperational
on Thursday, costs,
while a higher
rival,
Southwest
Airlines,
said that
its profit fell sharply in the period. Both
tuition
or
fewer
services
carriers cited rising fuel costs as the reason for the lower results.Southwest also
pulled
back on growth
plans
as a weak
economy and
record fuel
costs
took a toll
–
Inflation
=
all
goods
and
services
increase
in
price,
on the discount carrier.//The parent company of American Airlines, the AMR
higherposted
tuition
or million
fewerfirst-quarter
services loss as surging fuel prices sent
Corporation,
a $328
the industry into a downturn (4/17/08 NYT)

Not to be depressing, but…
– Other…
Wall Street analysts are suggesting the breakup of General Electric after an
unusual earnings shortfall. 4/17/08 NYT)
Economic Trends
Tuition increases, income divide
•
Nationally, median tuition for 1st grade increased 31.3%
in inflation-adjusted dollars between 1995-96 and 2005-06,
which includes a 16.5% increase between 2000-01 and
2005-06. ~ NAIS Statistics
•
For 12th grade, median tuition increased 27.6% in the
decade between 1995-96 and 2005-06, including a 14.5%
increase between 2000-01 and 2005-06. ~ NAIS Statistics
•
Rich are getting richer…middle class squeezed…what is
the middle class?
Demo-EcoTrends
Disappearing Middle Class
Disposable income
Parents will ask: are you going to come to my emotional rescue?
The Middle Class:
Dual Income Family
$75,000
~ “The Middle Class on the
Precipice,”
Harvard Magazine, February, 2006
Dual vs.
single
earners
NAIS SSS Five Year Trend
Parent’s Financial Statement Filers
Our World: Trends
The Competition
The Competition
 Ok…now be HONEST…what’s your COMPETITION?
Online
Schooling
Grows,
Setting
OffDiploma
a Debate
 Urban
Schools
Aiming
Higher
Than
The New York Times (from February 1, 2008)
BOSTON
At American
Excel High
School,
in South
Boston,
“Half a —
million
children
take classes
online,
and many are
attending
virtual
schools
that are competing
with local
teachers
do not
justpublic
prepare
students
academically
fordistricts
the
public
financing.”
SAT;forthey
take
them on practice walks to the building where
the SAT will be given so they won’t get lost on the day of
the test. (1/18/08 NYT)
The Competition
Not What Parents Were
Expecting
Percentage of Students Reporting a B+ or More as Their
Current Grade Average
100%
80%
60%
Ok…pause…your reactions?
Do you think the competition
is any
good?
54%
50%
69%
53%
51%
43%
40%
20%
0%
Independent
Schools
Hey, this is us!
Public
Schools
Private
Religious
Public
Charter
Public
Magnet
Home
School
Who are these folk?
Source: 2006 Your First College Year (YFCY) Survey , The Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) -UCLA
Our World: Trends
Demographics
Changing School-age
Population
Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.
Forecasted Growth in Population Age
0-17 Years
Metropolitan Areas
% Growth 2007-2012
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
9.63%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
8.74%
Canan, NH
6.90%
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN
6.69%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
3.10%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL
2.93%
NATIONAL
1.97%
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
0.90%
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI
-0.01%
St. Louis, MO-IL
-0.33%
Baltimore-Towson, MD
-0.73%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
-0.98%
New Haven-Milford, CT
-1.29%
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA
-2.04%
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
-2.74%
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
-3.18%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
-3.33%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
-3.54%
Source: NAIS Demographic Center
Aging of America
Shift in age distribution
Population of the United States by Age: 1950-2050
70%
60%
59%
58%
54%
50%
53%
40%
38%
34%
30%
60%
29%
27%
26%
20%
53%
26%
21%
20%
10%
0%
12%
9%
8%
13%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0-19 years
34%
38%
38%
32%
29%
29%
27%
26%
26%
26%
26%
20-64 years
58%
52%
53%
57%
59%
59%
60%
57%
54%
54%
53%
65+ years
8%
9%
9%
11%
12%
12%
13%
16%
20%
20%
21%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base-Population Pyramids,
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
Family Structure

In 2003:
– 68 percent of children under the age of 18 lived with two married
parents (compared to 77 percent in 1980)
– 23 percent lived only with a mother
– 5 percent lived only with a father
– 4 percent lived with neither parent. (U.S. Census Bureau,
“America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2003”)

The number of two-parent families is projected to slowly decrease to
23.1 million by 2010. (U.S. Department of Commerce, “Projections of
the Number of Households and Families in the United States: 1995 to
2010”)
Race and Ethnicity

Whites will make up only 58% of those in the 0-24 age range by 2015
(compared with 70% in 1990). (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for
Education of Children: 1990-2015”)

Hispanics are expected to nearly double from 12 % in 1990 to 21% in
2015. (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 19902015”)

Half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025, and
half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050. (Hodgkinson,
“Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”)

The 65% increase in diverse populations will be absorbed by only 230
counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about three-fifths.
(Hodgkinson, “Educational Demographics: What Teachers Should
Know”)
Gen Xers Parents

Some characteristics of Gen Xers:
– Are children of divorce. 40% have grown up in single parent
families. As a result, they want a rich family life. While financial
success is important, personal lives take precedence.
– Have spent more time watching television than going to
school.
– Have an unrelenting desire to use and learn more about
leading edge technology.
– Are procrastinators, postponing commitments in order to
continue to evaluate options.
– Are a racially diverse group.
– Will pick up and leave a job that does not satisfy them.
Observations
 K-12 cohort: slower growth nationally, more certain parts of
the country
 Older citizenry: more grand parents paying tuition, families
chipping-in, less inclined to pay more in taxes for public
schools?
 Demographic look: more Hispanic families, higher
educational attainment means more and different
expectations of schools?
 Financial picture: larger gap rich and poor, hurting
emotional middle class, affordability and value of a private
school education?
Public Perceptions of
Independent Schools
What are the elements of a quality school?
(general public & high income)
 Providing a safe environment
 Employing high quality teachers
What do you think are some of the key
 NAIS
Public Opinion
Poll 3/November 2006
Maintaining
discipline
elements of a quality school?
 Washington,
Atlanta, Chicago,
San Francisco
Keeping students
motivated/enthusiastic
about
learning Parents with school age children/High income
 Samplings:
(150k or more) parents with school age children
 Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel
 Preparing students academically for college
 Encouraging parents’ participation
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
Top 10 Characteristics That Affect School Quality
- General Public Opinion
Random Sample (n=501)
100
94
93
90
89
87
87
87
86
86
85
Percent
80
60
40
20
0
Providing a
safe
environment
Employing
high-quality
teachers
Maintaining
discipline
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
Keeping
students
motivated and
enthusiastic
about learning
Supporting a
Preparing
climate that
students
says it’s okay academically
to study and
for college
excel
Encouraging
parents to
participate in
their child's
education
Preventing
drug and
alcohol use
Preparing
students for life
and career in a
global
economy
Attending to
the needs of
students
with
learning
disabilities
Top 10 Characteristics That Affect School Quality
- High Income Families Opinions
Targeted Sample (n=500)
100
97
97
95
93
91
88
84
84
83
82
Percent
80
60
40
20
0
Providing a
safe
environment
Employing
high-quality
teachers
Supporting a
Preparing
climate that
students
says it’s okay academically
to study and
for college
excel
#6 Gen Pub
#5 Gen Pub
Same as Gen Pub
Different from Gen Pub
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
Keeping
Maintaining Encouraging
students
discipline
parents to
motivated and
#3 Gen Pub participate in
enthusiastic
their child's
about learning
education
#4 Gen Pub
Using
computers
and other
technology
to enhance
learning
Preventing
Preparing
drug and
students for life
alcohol use
and career in a
#8 Gen Pub
global
economy
Gap Analysis Among Targeted Sample
Percent Rating as
Extremely Important
(n=500)
Percent Rating
Independent
Schools As
Excellent
(n=360)
Percentage Gap
Between General
and Independent
School Ranking
Attending to the needs of students with learning
disabilities
76%
24%*
-52%
Preventing drug and alcohol use
83%
41%*
-42%
Employing high-quality teachers
97%
66%*
-31%
Having students drawn from a range of cultures, races and
income groups
53%
24%*
-29%
Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about
learning
91%
66%*
-25%
Offering solid programs in music and the arts
76%
57%*
-24%
Providing a safe environment
97%
74%*
-23%
Maintaining discipline
88%
65%*
-23%
Preparing students for life and a career in a global
economy
82%
60%*
-22%
Encouraging parents to participate in their child’s education
84%
64%*
-20%
Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel
95%
78%*
-17%
Ouch!
Note: “Extremely Important” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Not At All Important and 10 is
Extremely Important.
Note: “Excellent” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Very Poor and 10 is Excellent.
*Indicates a significant difference from the characteristic ranked as important at the 95% confidence level
Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006
Ind Schools vs. Public Schools
Look at these numbers: Is this
why our new competitors are so
attractive?
Random Sample
2006
(n=501)
1999
(n=751)
Percent Rating
Independent
Schools As
Excellent
(n=360)
Percent Rating Private, Non-Parochial Independent Schools
As Better Than Public Schools
Providing a safe environment
52%
NA
74
Employing high-quality teachers
47%
47%
66
Supporting a climate that says its okay to study and
excel
44%
48%
78
Preparing students academically for college
49%
45%
78
Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about
learning
48%
41%
66
Maintaining discipline
57%
63%
65
Encouraging parents to participate in their child’s
education
43%
48%
64
Preventing drug and alcohol use
41%
36%
41
Preparing students for life and a career in a global
economy
36%
34%
60
Attending to the needs of students with learning
disabilities
29%
24%
24
Giving individualized attention to each child
59%
65%
65
Observations
 Public thinking: are we offering a product they value;
why doesn’t the public know more about us?
What This Tells Us
and
What To Do
Key Questions/Issues…How Do You…
 Assure Product Quality (i.e., are schools doing what they say
they do)? [POP3 results]
– Accreditation. Is your accreditation process designed to
help your school confirm/improve quality? What areas do
parents (POP3) and your school think are important
markers of a quality education? If aligned with your
mission, are you doing them? How? Can you get better?
 Distinguish from the Competition (i.e., what makes us
different from virtual, magnet, charters, etc.)?
– Program/Mission/Faculty. What actually does distinguish
your school from the high-end magnet, virtual, charter
down the road or in the ethers? Can you identify what
those characteristics are? Data to back it up? Have you
done a comparison? Can you demonstrate whether you
are a 21st Century School?
The Wisdom of the Crowd
What’s on your list of skills and values that we should
teach for the 21st C.?
The skills of …
The values of…
Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum
The Generative Question: What curriculum will prepare
students for the 21st Century? What skills & values will
• cross-disciplinary knowledge
be required?
• communication skills
• teamwork
• analytical reasoning
• real world problem-solving skills
• creativity and innovation
• facility with the use of ideas and
abstractions
• self-discipline and organization to
manage one’s own work and drive it to
successful conclusion
• leadership
• ethical
• respectful
Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum
Who’s Who of Key
Players
Key Questions/Issues…How Do You…
 Articulate your VAP (i.e., how do we demonstrate that we’re
worth it?)
– Outcomes-based Performance Measurements. How is
your school accountable to its students and parents?
What is your value-added? How can you demonstrate it?
[NAIS Outcomes-based Performance Measurements
Initiative/NAIS Survey Builder]
O-b PMeasurement Tools Explored by NAIS
TOOL
ADMINISTERED BY
TYPE
1
SAT
College Board
Standardized Testing
2
High School Survey of Student Engagement
(HSSSE)
Indiana University
Student Survey
3
CIRP Freshmen Survey
Higher Education Research Institute (HERI)
Student Survey
4
Your First College Year (YFCY)
Higher Education Research Institute (HERI)
Student Survey
5
College Senior Survey (CSS)
Higher Education Research Institute (HERI)
Student Survey
6
Measures of Academic Progress (MAP)
Northwest Evaluation Association (NWEA)
Value-Added Test
7
Measure of Academic Proficiency and
Progress (MAPP)
Educational Testing Service (ETS)
Value-Added Test
8
College and Work Readiness Assessment
(CWRA)
Council for Aid to Education (CAE)
Value-Added Test
9
College Placement Study
Nat. Assoc. of Independent Schools (NAIS)
Institutional Effectiveness
Survey
10
Alumni Assessment Survey
Nat. Assoc. of Independent Schools (NAIS)
Institutional
Effectiveness Survey
11
Parent Satisfaction Survey
Nat. Assoc. of Independent Schools (NAIS)
Institutional Effectiveness
Survey
12
SSATB
Secondary School Admission Test Board
Standardized Testing
13
Data Collection of School Outcomes
National Association of Independent Schools
(NAIS)
School Ratios
14
Accountability Templates
Nat. Assoc. of State Univ. and Land-Grant
Colleges (NASULGC) Nat. Assoc. of
Independent Colleges and Univ. (NAICU)
Templates
HSSSE—Sample Test Items
MAP
CWRA
NAIS Survey Builder
NAIS Survey Builder
U-CAN/Dept of ED
Key Questions/Issues…How Do You…
 Know Your Marketplace/Enhance School Marketing (i.e.,
who we are and what we do)
– Marketing. What do you know about trends nationally,
regionally, locally? Are you tracking the demographics?
[NAIS Demographic Center] What are your messages?
How are you getting them out there? [NAIS Advocacy
Resources]
Advocacy Materials/Demographic Centre
DEMOGRAPHIC
CENTER
Basic Reports
1. They include variables such
as school population,
families with children by
income, race/ethnicity, and
educational attainment
2. Types of reports:
– Summary Reports
– Detailed Reports
– Multiple Area Reports
Select any of the NAIS Reports
Select the area you want to study
Press the "Create Report" button
Select any of the NAIS Reports
Press the ‘Create Table’ button to
display your report
Case Study I: Changing Gender Trends

What strategic questions should the school administration
ask?
What percentage of all girls would we need to
attract to survive? Is that doable?
An elementary
girls’ school in Philadelphia is just starting a
 Do we consider going coed? Or merging with
strategic visioning process. It goes to the Demographic Center
another girls’ school?
and sees this.
 If not, what financial planning do we need to do to
help us weather the downturn?



Can we work with the local businesses and the
chamber of commerce to attract new families to the
area?
Case Study II: Changing Ethnicity Trends

What strategic questions should the school administration ask?

–
Given the demographic changes, what are the implications
A school
in San
Antonio, Texas, finds that the population of
of these
changes?
people of color in its area is growing rapidly. The school
–
What are the key characteristics that parents of color are
currently
hasfor
10%
color.
looking
in astudents
school? of
Does
the school highlight these
characteristics in its messages?
–
What communication channels should the school use to
reach out to the people of color in its community? Should
the school include other languages in its communications
with parents?
Strategic Questions
 What does my five year economic picture look like?
– If I do nothing, where will I be?
– How dependent is my school on a steady funnel of
applicants?
– How dependent is my school on full pay families?
 Can my school stay exactly the same in this market or will it
need to be modified in some ways?
 How will the trend data inform my decision making?
Why is this Relevant to You?
 Key role of Board Chairs, Boards, and Heads in setting
institutional direction and ensuring long-term viability
 Important to be aware of those external factors that affect
your school’s sustainability
 Essential to use available tools and resources to engage in
long-term strategic thinking, visioning, and planning
 We need to be adept and adaptable