Transcript The development of Smes: Japan, Argentina, Italia the

The development of Smes: Japan, Argentina, Italia
the impact of the current crisis on Latina American
countries and prospects of the industrial policies
Patrizio Bianchi
Istituto Italo-Latino Americano
Roma, January 14- 15, 2010
Since the end of the 1990s, world economy is pushed by emerging and
developing economies; since 2007
IMF Regional Economic Outlook,
May 2009
The global crisis that began in advanced economies
has sent severe shocks around the world, posing a
test to the economies of Latin America and the
Caribbean. The good news is that during this decade
the region has made itself more resilient to external
shocks, by strengthening policy frameworks and
reducing vulnerabilities in its public finances and
financial systems. These preparations, the report
shows, mean that countries are now more able to
respond to the external crisis, many for the first time,
with active policies to boost output and employment
and protect the most vulnerable groups. This will help
contain the damage from the global crisis and speed
up the region’s recovery.
IMF Regional
Economic
Outlook Sees
Latin America
Recovering
More Quickly
from the
Global Crisis
Relative to
Advanced
Countries
South American countries reacted well to the previous crisis and
became more resilient to the current global crisis
Argentina reacted extremely well to the 2001
default but in 2008 collapsed
410
ditta
tura
dela
rua
alfonsin
4pres
Serie
desestacionalizada
menem
310
260
Tendencia
Hodrick-Prescott
kirchner
210
Cambio fisso
I0
8
I0
6
I0
7
I0
4
I0
5
I0
2
I0
3
I0
0
I0
1
I9
8
I9
9
I9
6
I9
7
I9
4
I9
5
I9
2
I9
3
I9
0
I9
1
I8
8
I8
9
I8
6
I8
7
I8
4
I8
5
I8
2
I8
3
160
I8
0
I8
1
miles de millones de pesos de 1993
360
PIB trimestral, desestacionalizado, a precios constantes. Valores y tendencia HP
Reasons of success
• Financial Default and
• Devaluation after a long period of fixed
exchange rate
• Increase of agricultural commodities prices
• Mercosur development
• Increase of productivity and innovation in the
agricoltural sector
• Political stability and positive industrial policies
Deuda externa bruta
180,000
180
Millones de u$s (eje izquierdo)
En porcentaje del PIB (eje derecho)
140
120,000
120
100,000
100
80,000
80
60,000
60
40,000
40
20,000
20
Financial default reduced external debt and reduced the international
opening of the financial domestic market
Mar-08
Dic-07
Dic-06
Dic-05
Dic-04
Dic-03
Dic-02
Dic-01
Dic-00
Dic-99
Dic-98
Dic-97
Dic-96
Dic-95
Dic-94
0
Dic-93
0
- en porcentaje del PIB -
160
140,000
Dic-92
- en millones de dólares -
160,000
ene-08
jul-07
ene-07
jul-06
ene-06
jul-05
ene-05
jul-04
ene-04
jul-03
ene-03
jul-02
ene-02
jul-01
ene-01
jul-00
ene-00
jul-99
ene-99
jul-98
ene-98
jul-97
ene-97
jul-96
ene-96
jul-95
ene-95
jul-94
ene-94
jul-93
ene-93
jul-92
ene-92
jul-91
ene-91
- índice base 2000=100 -
Devaluation impacted on export
and import prices
Tipo de cambio real (IPC San Luis)
Indice base 200=100
350
300
TCR multilateral IPC San Luis
TCR bilateral IPC San Luis
250
200
150
100
50
0
Exportaciones e importaciones a precios constantes.
60,000
Importaciones
Exportaciones
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Devaluation reduced import and supported domestic
production
I-08
I-07
I-06
I-05
I-04
I-03
I-02
I-01
I-00
I-99
I-98
I-97
I-96
I-95
I-94
0
I-93
- en millones de pesos a precios de 1993 -
50,000
20
-10
I-94
II
III
IV
I-95
II
III
IV
I-96
II
III
IV
I-97
II
III
IV
I-98
II
III
IV
I-99
II
III
IV
I-00
II
III
IV
I-01
II
III
IV
I-02
II
III
IV
I-03
II
III
IV
I-04
II
III
IV
I-05
II
III
IV
I-06
II
III
IV
I-07
II
III
IV
I-08
- variación porcentual respecto a igual período del año anterior -
Consumo y Demanda Interna a precios corrientes.
Tasas de variación interanual.
35
30
4 pres
25
kirchner
delarua
menem
15
10
5
0
-5
Consumo
Demanda interna
-15
-20
Domestic demand improved during Kirchner presidency
Banca mondiale, gli indici dei prezzi delle materie:
changes of soja prices impacted positively from sep 2001, and then from sep
2006, but negatively from may 2008.
Brasil has been very dynamic till 2008, less tham China and India, but
more than industrialized countries
Brasil has been more stable than Argentina, and able to pull
Argentinian economy
Industrial structure
• Comparando los Censos Economicos de 1994 y 2004
aparecen claros indicios de que a lo largo de estos anos
de han desmantelado sectores y han desaparecido
capacidades, se han acentuado una estructura
primarizada y desarticulada, Kosakoff, Hacia un nuevo
modelo industrial, 2007, p.69
• Between 1994 and 2004 industrial structure was
damaged by the fixed rate of exchange
• Kosakoff says that in those years a substantial part of
industrial structure was improving its innovation capacity
The current economic crisis
• The impact of default effects were reduced
overtime, the Argentinian economy is more open
to global economy
• Devaluation effects was reduced by the positive
trends of exports and the weakening of dollar vs.
euro
• prices of raw materials since may 2008
decreased
• Mercosur impact is linked to the trends of Brasil
The present political crisis
• The inadequacy of Cristina Fernàndez de
Kirchner
• The reaction against the export tax on soja (from
11 mar 2008 to 17 jun 2008)
• Privatization of Air company and pension funds
• Fragmentation of the peronist party
Kosakoff, Hacia un nuoevo modelo
industrial, 2007
Promote the development of entrepreneurship and
creation of new businesses
Stimulate the creation of capital markets do not
exist
Recovery accumulated social capital
Promote actions to achieve greater spills
A tax reform and improvement of the
administration
Grant tax incentives for local investment in
research and development