Transcript General discussion - United Nations Statistics Division

International Workshop
Beijing, 8-10 June 2009
From Data to Accounts
Session VI: General Discussion
Moderator :
Frederick W H HO
1
>> Challenges faced by National Statistical Offices
in compiling economic statistics data :
ENSURING coherence
CONTRIBUTING to the Advancement of the
System of National Accounts implementation
…………………………………………………
>> A presentation on
An Integrated Economic Statistics Programme (IESP):
With the National Accounting System
as the IESP’s foundation and core component
>> General discussion
2
An Integrated Economic Statistics Programme (IESP):
With the National Accounting System
as the IESP’s foundation and core component
3
Purposes and Uses of an IESP
(1)
•
Economic Analysis
–
(a) Enabling macro-economic and
micro-economic analysis
–
(b) Monitoring the performance of
the overall economy, the external
sector, the financial sector and the
labour sector etc.
4
Purposes and Uses of an IESP
(2)
•
Macro-level policy formulation and
decision
–
–
–
–
(a) Sustaining the competitiveness of
successful industries
(b) Identifying and assisting new industries
(c) Developing strategic partnership with
other economies
(d) Demand and supply balances
5
Purposes and Uses of an IESP
(3)
•
Action programme planning for sectoral
developments
– (a) tracking the developments in specific
economic sectors and determining action
strategies for their developments
– (b) sectoral productivity studies
6
Purposes and Uses of an IESP
(4)
•
Business studies
–
–
–
–
(a) profitable lines of business
(b) appropriate mix of products
(c) optimum cost structure
(d) firm level productivity studies and
benchmarking
– (e) investment decisions
– (f) marketing tactics
7
Purposes and Uses of an IESP
(5)
•
For the Statistical Authority:
facilitating coherence of statistical development
-- User needs are better met overall
-- More efficient use of statistical resources
•
For the Statistical Authority:
an aid to data quality control
-- Achieving consistency of different branches of statistics
-- Identifying basic data problems as revealed by serious
data inconsistencies
8
Components of an IESP
•
(1) Economic Censuses/surveys
( including the production indices and
business receipts indices)
•
(2) External Trade Statistics Systems
(Merchandise trade and trade in services)
•
(3) Price Statistics systems
•
(4) Financial and Monetary statistics systems
•
(5) The National Accounting System
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(5) The National Accounting System
(i) Gross Domestic Product ( GDP )
10
GDP by Production Approach
and Income Approach
Input (1) ：
Intermediate
consumption
Gross output
Producing
(B)
(A)
Value of
goods and
services
consumed
Value of products
Unit
Input (3):
Capital and entrepreneurship
Input (2):
Labour
(C)
A+C+D=B
Return to labour:
“Compensation of
employees”
(D)
Return to capital and entrepreneurship:
“Gross operating surplus”
Value added = ( B ) –( A ) [production approach]
= (C) +(D)
(4)
[income approach]
Physical flow
Value flow (i.e. money or
equivalent)
Value added of an industry = Sum of value added of all producing units in the industry
GDP (at factor cost) = Sum of value added of all industries
11
Relative Shares of “Value added”
of different industries
in GDP
Sector 1
Sector 2
Sector 3
mmm
(
%)
mmm
(
%)
mmm
(
%)
2
0
0
6
….
….
Overall Economy
MMM
( 100 %)
12
Relative Shares of
Compensation of Employees and
Gross Operating Surplus
in GDP
GDP at factor cost
ggg
Compensation of employees
(as % of GDP)
(
ccc
%)
Gross operating surplus
(as % of GDP)
sss
%)
(
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Gross Output -Goods and services produced by Producing Units
 intermediate use :
outputs used by some other industries
 final use : outputs going to
> households
> government—for the production of
government services
> capital formation
> export
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GDP by Expenditure Approach
Consider only goods and services for Final Use
C = Private consumption
expenditure
C
G = Government consumption
expenditure
M
G
X
I
GDP = C
+ G + I + X  M
i.e. Sum of the Final Uses
LESS the import contents
[We are unable to remove the import contents
at the various stages of domestic production]
I = Investment (Gross
domestic fixed capital
formation plus Changes in
inventories)
X = Exports of goods and
services
M = Imports of goods and
services
15
GDP by Expenditure Approach
[[ GDP
Total supply
(4785)
=
GDP + M
=
1613 + 3172 =
= C
+
G +
I
+
X

M ]]
Total Final Demand
(4785)
C
+ G
966 + 1130
+ I
+ 345
+
X
+ 3344
The above are 2007 figures in HK$ billion
(Note - Figures may not add up due to rounding)
Ratio to GDP
 An indication of the relative economic significance
 Ratio of X to GDP is 207%
 X has both domestic contents and import contents. It is not a
“component” of GDP. Hence it is totally possible for the ratio to
be bigger than 100%
16
Government Consumption expenditure
Input (1) ：
Intermediate
consumption
Government (as
Gross output
the Producing
Unit for
Government
Services )
(A)
Value of
goods and
services
consumed
(4)
(B)
Value of
government services
Input (3):
Capital and entrepreneurship = 0
Input (2):
Labour
(C)
Return to labour:
“Compensation of
employees”
(D)
Return to capital and entrepreneurship:
“Gross operating surplus” = 0
Government Consumption Expenditure
=Value of government services produced
= A+ C + 0 = A + C
-- A method of “Evaluating output by input”
Physical flow
Value flow (i.e. money or
equivalent)
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(5) The National Accounting System
(i) GDP
•
(I) GDP from the three approaches (production
approach, income approach and expenditure
approach) --> production approach enables us to look at the
relative contributions of different economic sectors;
> income approach enables us to look at income
distribution at the macro- level;
> expenditure approach : grossing over the
intermediate processes and looking at just the final
uses of the goods - enables us to look at the use of
available resources by the economy
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(5) The National Accounting System
(i) GDP
•
(II) Data for compilation of the three
GDP’s -•
•
•
data for the production-based GDP come (mainly)
from economic censuses/surveys,
data for the income-based GDP come from
economic censuses/surveys, tax systems,
household surveys etc.,
data for the expenditure-based GDP come from
household expenditure surveys, economic
censuses/surveys, government accounts, trade
statistics etc.
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(5) The National Accounting System
(i) GDP
•
(III) It may be noted that :
•
(a) data from one source may serve as source for more than
one of these three GDP calculations
•
(b) Reconciliation of the three GDP’s provide a good
framework for consistency check to throw light on possible
problems in some of the data sources.
[ Important note, GDP (P) is at factor cost
GDP ( I) is at factor cost
GDP (E) is at market price
And, GDP(P) = GDP(I)
and GDP(E)= GDP(P) + Indirect Taxes ]
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(5) The National Accounting System
(ii)
Gross National Product (GNP)
GNP
= GDP
+ Factor income earned by residents
outside the economy
- Factor income earned by non-residents
within the economy
Factor income
– direct investment income;
– portfolio investment income;
– other investment income; and
– compensation of employees
21
(5) The National Accounting System
(iii)
Other statistics, presented in the form of
accounts—
•
•
•
to show the generation and distribution of
income
to show how savings are accumulated
and placed in the form of assets
external transactions
22
Components of an IESP
•
(6) Balance of payments - to show
transactions (current or capital )
across the boundary of the
economy in question
•
(7) Closely associated systems
--- demographic statistics system
--- labour statistics system
23
Features of an
Integrated Economic Statistics programme
(1) Interlocking nature of the components
Each component produces data
which often may be used
both by final data users
and by some other components as input data
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Features of an
Integrated Economic Statistics programme
(2) Coherence among the components –
>> The components fit together to provide a
comprehensive coverage of the important
economic variables;
>>common definitions and classifications (most
preferably common International Standards);
>>promotes consistency of data
25
Features of an
Integrated Economic Statistics programme
(3) Coherence among institutions –
Harmonization in the collection activities
for raw data
>> Sources
>> Methods
>> Timing
26
Features of an
Integrated Economic Statistics programme
(4) Good communication and coordination
among institutions responsible for the
different components –
>> inter-institutional relationship;
>> relationship with raw data suppliers;
>> relationship with users of statistical
data
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GENERAL DISCUSSION
Challenges faced by
National Statistical Offices
in compiling economic statistics data :
ENSURING coherence
CONTRIBUTING to the Advancement of the
System of National Accounts implementation
28