Transcript Latin America

Latin America
Progress Report
Presented to the World Bank
Regional Workshop
13 September 2005
Participating countries
 10
South American countries grouped into
two sub-regions :
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
2
The Community of Andean Countries :
(Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and
Venezuela)
Mercosur and Chile : ( Argentina, Brazil,
Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay)
Ring countries : (Brazil and Chile)
How

Because of scarcity of resources the ICP draws heavily
on national CPI operations for:
 Sample of outlets
 Product specifications
 Price collection operations
 Computation and editing of prices
 Ecuador, Uruguay, Chile and Colombia received
additional funding for the ICP from their Central Bank
 In Paraguay and Venezuela: Central Bank does CPI
 Argentina, and Brazil received moral support (!)
Coverage (1)
 The
CPI coverage is urban areas for all
countries.
 Brazil covers 6 main regions
 In Argentina, Paraguay and Venezuela,
price collection is limited to the Capital.
 The ICP coverage is total GDP for all 10
countries.
Coverage (2)
 Andean
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Countries
Bolivia (4 cities)
Peru (5 cities)
Colombia (4 cities)
Ecuador (2 cities)
Venezuela (Caracas )
Coverage (3)
 Mercosur
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y Chile
Argentina (Buenos Aires ,+)
Brazil (6 regions)
Chile (13 cities)
Uruguay (5 cities)
Paraguay (Asunción)
Data Collection
 Collection
for the ICP is conducted during
a period of 4 to 6 weeks for each quarter.
 The period is the same for all countries
 The minimum period is 4 weeks but a
country may decide to stretch it to 6
weeks.
 In June only one country was using the
Tool Pack PCM for Price collection
(Uruguay)
Summary: Number of Products
Number of Products
Mercosur and Chile
Total
Food, Beverages and Tobacco
Rest
Oct-04
249
106
142
Mar-05
471
104
367
Andean Pact
Jun-05
524
124
400
Oct-04
221
103
118
Mar-05
411
103
308
Jun-05
450
112
338
Data operations (1)
 Data
are first edited by individual countries
using either their CPI edit tools or Tool
Pack
 Micro data with the exception of the name
of the outlet are sent to Statistics Canada
for a second edit and quality control .
 Formal agreements were signed between
STC and each participating country to
authorize the transfer of data to STC.
Data operations
 STC
calculates averages and dispersion
measures. STC also calculates the QT.
 STC send back the aggregated data and
QT to participating countries and ECLAC
for further data confrontation.
 Every country receive the average prices
and PPPs of all other participating
countries. Not the micro data.
Review process

Errors and outliers are discussed one on one
with the national coordinators before regional
meeting with participating countries.
 After each collection period, a regional meeting
is held to discuss the preliminary results.
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Review of errors (in group)
Review of problematic specifications (in group)
Individual review of country’s data
At the last two meetings : May 2005 and August
2005 Quaranta tables were used for the review
Operational procedures (1)
 Detailed
and complete time-table has
been established and agreed with all 10
countries for four quarters of 2005.
 Weekly teleconference between the
regional coordinators to monitor the
project.
 Weekly contacts with national coordinators
 Country Desk: each member of the team
is responsible for a set of countries
Operational procedures (2)
 For
the two first quarter, field visits were
done to assist countries before and during
price collection
 This quarter, limited assistance for
collection is provided for a few countries.
 In October 2005, before the price
collection of the fourth quarter, a review
and evaluation will be done in key
countries to assure comparability.
Meetings
 Four
regional meetings to discuss results
of quarterly price collection with price and
SNA experts:
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May 2005
August 2005
November 2005
April 2006
Problems
 Too
few product specifications in some
basic headings
 Too few price collected
 Too few outlets
 Errors in collection (does not meet spec)
 Errors in capture of data
 Errors in unit of measure, etc
 Toolpack
Problems (2)
 Problems
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in individual countries:
Strike in Brazil
Changes of government in Bolivia, Ecuador
Sharp reduction of staff in Venezuela
Problems of resources in Uruguay, Argentina
and Paraguay
Solutions
 Reduction
of scope for third quarter
 Special collections in July and August to
adjust second quarter
 Re-inforcing the quality assurance of
micro-data in countries
 Mission of evaluation in October in key
countries
 Maintain tight timetable
Example of timetable:
2st Quarter 2005
 Field
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Visits to countries : 1 May - 30 June
Colombia, and Ecuador (3)
collection: 15 May – 30 June
 Preparation of micro data: 1- 12 July
 Price
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Transmission of Food components :12 July
Transmission of rest of basket :18 July
 Edit
and aggregation at STC: 18 - 29 July
 Transmission of aggregates : 3 August
Example of timetable:
2st Quarter 2005 (2)
 Regional
meeting in Montevideo for
revision of 2st Q of 2005
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Mercosur & Chile : 8 -11 August
Andean community : 12 -16 August
SNA experts: 8 -10 August
Q price collection : 15 August – 30
September
 3nd
Example of timetable:
2st Quarter 2005
 Regional
meeting in Montevideo with
national accountants for:
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Discussion of March’s PPP
Preparation of consumption weights
Methodology of construction, M&E and
government
Establishment of timetable for deliverable
Timetable for Consumption
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Fourth quarter price collection: 1 nov- 15 dec
2005
 Revision of 4th Q : Jan-Feb 2006
 Aggregation of 2005 : March 2006
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ECLAC-STC review of 2005 : mid March 2006
Final review by all countries : 3-7 April 2006
 Preliminary publication of consumption: June
2006
 Ring: Chile (March-April 2006) Brazil (May 2006)
Timetable for GDP
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Revised GDP weights from SNA : 30 sept
 Videoconference : 12 Oct 2005
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Price collection for:
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Establishment of criteria for the concordance between
national and ICP classifications
construction : nov 05 - jan 06
machinery and equipment : dec 05 – feb 06
Government : nov 05 – march 06
Review of data : May-August
 Publication of total GDP 2006 : December 2006
Plans
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Calculate an average of 4 quarters for all
countries when possible
Aggregation procedures
Analysis of the data (by outlets, districts)
Price collection for construction, M&E and
Government ( 4th Q 2005 and 1st 2006)
Ring (2nd Q of 2006)
Publication of consumption : June 2006
Publication of GDP : Dec 2006
Plan
09
Collection
x
Data review
10
11
12
2006
1
x x
x
Annual
aggregation
2
3
Government
Construction
M&E
Total GDP
5
6
7
8
9
…
12
x x
xx x
Publication
consumption
GDP weights
4
x
x
x x x
x x x
x x
xx
x
x x
x
Afterthoughts
Risks
 Translation
 Manuals
 Toolpack
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