Transcript Hanoi_CIEM_Presentation_jlweber_1_final

1.1
CENTRAL INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
Project " Green GDP Index: Research for Methodology Framework Development"
Training on
“Green” national accounting:
development of environmental-economic accounts at the international level
Monday 27 February 2012
Venue: CIEM, 68 Phan Dinh Phung - Hanoi, Vietnam
Session 1:
History of “green national accounting and recent progress
Jean-Louis Weber
Special Adviser Economic Environmental Accounting
European Environment Agency
[email protected]
[email protected]
1.2
Session 1: History and recent progress
• Origins, first experiments, SEEA 1993
• Recent policy demand for environmental-economic accounts (GDP
and Beyond, CBD Aichi-Nagoya Strategy, World Bank’s WAVES…)
• SEEA2003 and its revision
• Activity of international organisations
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.3
Macro-economics: GDP growth and the need to account for
natural resource use & ecosystem capital degradation
GDP at 3% = "sustainable growth"
2000
Resource efficiency =
spare materials &
energy (technology,
consumption
patterns)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
GDP
800
600
Available
cropland
22 Mio km2
400 17 Mio km2
200
0
10 0 '20
0
2
2
30 0 40
0
2
2
50 0 60 0 70
0
2
2
2
80 0 90
0
2
2
00 1 10
1
2
2
Without soil conservation (land use) and soil ecological management,
technological/economic solutions are not likely to be effective... And reciprocally...
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
Resource efficiency =
ecological management
of land & soil, ecosystem
capital maintenance
1.4
Macro-economics: GDP growth and the need to account for
natural resource use & ecosystem capital degradation
Resource efficiency =
sparing materials &
energy (technology,
consumption
patterns)
GDP at 3% = "sustainable growth"
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
GDP
800
600
12.5 Mio km3
400 4.7 Mio km3
Use of accessible
200
20
10
20
'2
0
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
21
10
0
freshwater resource
(today 54%)
 Beyond GDP 2008
 “Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi” report 2009
 TEEB 2008-2010

SEEA2003 / rev. 2012-13
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
Resource efficiency =
ecological management
of land, soil & water,
ecosystem capital
maintenance
 WAVES/ WB Partnership 2011-2015
1.5
GDP: Concerns about meaning and measurement (1)
• Bertrand de Jouvenel 1968: “Because National Accounts are based on financial
transactions, they account nothing for Nature, to which we don’t owe anything in
terms of payments but to which we owe everything in terms of livelihood.”
• Early “green GDP” adjustments: how to maintain national income when natural
resource are depleting (“the weak sustainability”)? What are the “good” and “bad”
components of GDP? (the first SEEA1993 – no implementation)
• SEEA 1993 (System of Economic Environmental Accounts), propose adjustment of
GDP from environmental damage
• World Bank “Genuine Net Savings”: adjusted from resource depletion, CO2
emissions, urban air pollution
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.6
Pioneer works in environmental accounting
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Henry Peskin in Norway 1972,
Norway 1976, Natural Resource Accounts – not following Peskin and restricted to physical accounts,
Canada 1979 - Stress Response System [David Rapport & Tony Friend]
France 1979 – Natural Patrimony Accounting [systemic approach, priority to physical accounts in a first step (Robert
Toulemon, Jacques Mayer, Jean-Louis weber, Andre Vanoli…)], followed by Spain in the mid 1980s [J. M. Naredo]
Netherlands, end of 1970s [Roofie Hueting, Environment as scarcity, assessment of distance to target]
Peskin, 1980s, ENRAP, Philippines [accounting for environmental services, not only degradation]
Robert Repetto, WRI, 1980s in Indonesia, Costa Rica [“net value” of forests, oil reserves…]
Christian Liepert [defensive expenditures]
OECD, mid 1980s: experiments with countries of physical accounts – leading to the MFA initiative in the 1990s [with
Robert Ayres, Japan (Yuichi Moriguchi), Germany (Wuppertal Institute)...]
World Bank and UN Statistical Division (UNSD): Green accounting in parallel to the 1993 revision of the System of
National Accounts [Ernst Lutz, Salah El Serafy, Peter Bartelmus, Jan Van Tongeren...]. Focus on adjusting GDP from
“environmental degradation and depletion”. Degradation as loss of benefits (diseases resulting from air pollution…).
SEEA 1993, not implemented except in a few sponsored countries. Many theoretical questions not clarified,
opposition of the national accountants. Genuine Savings [WB] as a second best.
El Serafy for World Bank then freelance: User Cost of natural resources
Development of input-output accounting, physical and hybrid (NAMEA) [Germany, the Netherlands, Japan]
1994: London Group created by Statistics Canada, Eurostat and the UNSD and hosted by the British Statistical Office.
Includes voluntary countries plus UN, European Commission, WB, IMF, OECD.
Revision of the SEEA1993 steered by UNSD [Alessandra Alfieri], Statistics Canada [Rob Smith], OECD [Anne Harrison]
and Eurostat [Anton Steurer].
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.7
GDP: Concerns about meaning and measurement (2)
Recently:
• Beyond GDP Conference, Brussels 2008: keep GDP but supplement it with
indicators
• TEEB, 2008, GDP of the Poor
• Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress
(“Stiglitz report”), Paris 2009: National Income is more important than Gross
domestic Product; Social distribution of Disposable Income still poorly
addressed; “dual” issue of sustainability: overconsumption/ underinvestment
• Capital approaches:
– Early attempts at the World Bank: “Genuine or Adjusted Net Savings”
– Multi-capitals approaches of sustainable development: man-made, financial, natural,
human, social
– Ecosystem capital approaches: Green Accounting for Indian States Project, Simplified
Ecosystem Capital Accounts (Europe/EEA), SEEA revision, several countries
(Australia, UK, Canada…) ...
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.8
Environmental accounts: expected responses to policy demands
•
•
•
•
Costs of environmental protection… public and private expenditures
Costs of environmental damages (to human health, to the economy)
Genuine “savings”, total wealth measurements
Economy’s resource efficiency:
– Decoupling from resource use (material and energy) & from waste generation
– Decoupling from impacts on ecosystems
• Benefits from the ecosystem capital, sustainability and losses:
– Local, private: economic rent (additional benefit, advantage) for the use of an ecosystem
service
– Macro scale, national: sustainable income made possible by healthy ecosystems able at
delivering their services.
• Maintenance of the ecosystem capital (capacity of delivering services):
– In case of ecosystem degradation, non paid restoration costs need to be internalised in
prices, both at micro and macro levels.
– Ecosystem depreciation is in fact a debt to future generations which should to be added
up to the private, public and social debts…
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.9
Activity of international organisations (and NGOs)
• UN (+OECD, WB, IMF and the European Commission): the System
of Environmental-Economic Accounts (SEEA)
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/seea.asp
• WB: Genuine savings, WAVES
• FAO: SEEA AGRI
• OECD and Eurostat: Material Flow Accounts
• NGOs: the Ecological Footprint and Water Footprint « accounts »
• UNEP: valuation of ecosystem services
• Eurostat: MFA, Composite Input-Output analysis (NAMEA),
Expenditure accounts
• European Environment Agency: ecosystem capital accounts
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.10
UN manual for environmental-economic accounting: SEEA2003
Enlargement of SNA1993 (now 2008)
Revision  SEEA2012/13
Impacts on ecosystem capacity of
Natural resources
Ecosystems
delivering
services/benefits
Economic
Non-economic
assets (SNA)
assets
Opening
stocks
SNA
transactions 
and other
flows
Changes in
stocks
Closing stocks
Volume
Opening
stocks1
Volume
2
Opening
State
The SNA satellite
Ecosystem approach
accounts for theEconomic to accounting
Changes
activities,
Changes
environment


in stocks
natural Ecosystem stocks
in state
and
processes,
quality, valuation options…
expenditure, taxes,
etc.
hybrid accounts,
physical flows,
sub-soil, energy, water land,
Closing
economic assets depletion
stocks
Closing
state
Described in SNA
Negative feedbacks of ecosystem
degradation on production and wellbeing
RM HASSAN - UN The System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (UN 2003) RANESA Workshop June 12-16, 2005 Maputo
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.11
More on the SEEA in Session 2…
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.12
World Bank: Adjusted Net Saving (“Genuine Savings”)
• Adjusted net saving – a proxy for sustainability
• Adjusted net saving, (also known as genuine saving), is a sustainability indicator
building on the concepts of green national accounts. Adjusted net savings
measure the true rate of savings in an economy after taking into account
investments in human capital, depletion of natural resources and damage
caused by pollution.
• Negative adjusted net saving rates imply that total wealth is in decline; policies
leading to persistently negative adjusted net savings are policies for unsustainability.
• Adjusted Net Savings estimates are available for 140 countries for the period
1970-2008. Data for 2009 will be available in the Spring of 2011.
• http://go.worldbank.org/3AWKN2ZOY0
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.13
Adjusted net savings are derived from standard national accounting
measures of gross national savings by making four types of adjustments:
•
•
•
•
First, estimates of capital consumption of produced assets are deducted to obtain net
national savings.
Then current expenditures on education are added to net domestic savings as an
appropriate value of investments in human capital (in standard national accounting these
expenditures are treated as consumption).
Next, estimates of the depletion of a variety of natural resources are deducted to reflect
the decline in asset values associated with their extraction and harvest. Estimates of
resource depletion are based on the calculation of resource rents. An economic rent
represents the excess return to a given factor of production. Rents are derived by taking
the difference between world prices and the average unit extraction or harvest costs
(including a 'normal' return on capital).
Finally, pollution damages are deducted:
–
–
Many pollution damages are local in their effects, and therefore difficult to estimate without location-specific
data. Here we estimate health damages due to urban air pollution.
As for global pollution damages, the estimates include damages from carbon dioxide emissions.
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.14
Calculation of Adjusted Net Savings
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEEI/11056431115814965717/20486606/Savingsmanual2002.pdf
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.15
Adjusted Net Saving 2008 (as a percentage of Gross National Income)
Adjusted Net Saving 2008 (as a percentage of Gross National Income)
GNS
Gross
National
Saving
(various
methods
used)
CFC
NNS
EDE
Consumpt
ion of
Net
Fixed
National
Capital
Saving
END
MID
NFD
CO2
Education
Net
Expenditu Energy
Mineral Forest
CO2
re
Depletion Depletion Depletion damage
PM10
PM10
damage
(2002 and
2004
WHO
data)
ANS_I
Adjusted
Net
Saving
(including
PM10
damage)
ANS_E
Adjusted
Net
Saving
(excluding
PM10
damage)
Country
Code
Country Name
AUS
Australia
32.86
14.73
18.13
5.11
4.12
3.76
0.00
0.29
0.02
15.04
15.06
FRA
France
18.74
13.86
4.88
5.05
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.01
9.80
9.80
GRC
Greece
7.36
13.89
-6.53
2.75
0.34
0.08
0.00
0.23
0.34
-4.76
-4.42
THA
Thailand
30.67
10.89
19.78
4.79
5.28
0.01
0.18
0.85
0.22
18.04
18.25
GBR
United Kingdom
14.80
13.65
1.15
5.06
2.14
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.00
3.90
3.91
USA
United States
12.60
13.96
-1.36
4.79
1.93
0.11
0.00
0.31
0.14
0.93
1.07
VNM
Vietnam
30.35
8.78
21.57
2.81
12.90
0.28
0.17
1.02
0.28
9.73
10.02
http://go.worldbank.org/3AWKN2ZOY0
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.16
Adjusted Net Savings Time Series 2000 to 2008 - Vietnam
ADJUSTED NET SAVINGS TIME SERIES 1970 TO 2008
Source: World Bank
http://go.worldbank.org/3AWKN2ZOY0
VNM
Vietnam
GNS
CFC
NNS
EDE
NFD
END
MID
CO2
PM10
ANS_I
ANS_E
Gross National Saving
Consumption of Fixed Capital
Net National Saving
Education Expenditure
Net Forest Depletion
Energy Depletion
Mineral Depletion
CO2 damage
PM10 damage
Adjusted Net Saving, including PM10 damage
Adjusted Net Saving, excluding PM10 damage
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
2000
31.72
8.83
22.89
2.81
0.75
7.51
0.02
1.03
0.47
15.92
16.39
2001
31.80
8.87
22.94
2.81
0.64
6.46
0.01
1.13
0.49
17.03
17.52
2002
32.43
8.96
23.48
2.81
0.57
5.68
0.01
1.27
0.49
18.27
18.76
2003
31.76
9.06
22.70
2.81
0.34
6.27
0.01
1.25
0.31
17.33
17.64
2004
33.48
9.26
24.21
2.81
0.31
10.53
0.01
1.43
0.32
14.43
14.75
2005
36.53
7.92
28.61
2.81
0.42
12.26
0.01
1.32
0.30
17.11
17.42
2006
37.08
8.10
28.98
2.81
0.35
11.81
0.05
1.25
0.29
18.04
18.33
2007
35.63
8.36
27.28
2.81
0.22
11.38
0.06
1.24
0.28
16.91
17.19
2008
30.35
8.78
21.57
2.81
0.17
12.90
0.28
1.02
0.28
9.73
10.02
1.17
WB 2010: The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable
Development in the New Millennium
•
In all countries, intangible capital is, by
far, the largest share of wealth.
However, for the poorest countries,
natural capital is more important than
produced capital. This suggests that
properly managing natural resources
must be a key part of development
strategies, particularly since the
poorest households in those countries
are usually the most dependent on
these resources.
•
Change in Wealth = Adjusted Net
Savings
•
•
http://go.worldbank.org/RRCQLBZMX0
http://data.worldbank.org/datacatalog/wealth-of-nations
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.18
Discussion of Adjusted Net (“genuine”) Savings and Total Wealth
Calculations in the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi report of 2009
155 However, the current methodology underlying empirical calculations has well-known
shortcomings: the relevance of the ANS approach crucially depends on what is counted
(the different forms of capital passed on to future generations), namely, what is included
in “extended wealth”, and on the price used to count and aggregate in a context of
imperfect or indeed nonexistent valuation by markets.
156. Indeed, a major shortcoming of ANS estimates is that the adjustment for environmental
degradation is only limited to a restricted set of pollutants, the most significant one being
carbon dioxide emissions. The authors acknowledge that the calculations do not include
other important sources of environmental degradation, such as underground water
depletion, unsustainable fisheries, and soil degradation, and a fortiori biodiversity loss.
157. … Further, market prices for fossil energy sources and other minerals have tended, in
recent years, to fluctuate widely, causing significant swings in measures of ANS based on
current market prices and this has very strongly reduced the practical relevance of the
ANS for concerned countries.
Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social
Progress , 2009, www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.19
World Bank 2010-2015: WAVES
Wealth Assessment and Valuation of Ecosystem Services
Objectives
• Implement natural capital accounting based on the UN’s System of
Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) in 6-10 countries.
• Incorporate the accounts into policy analysis and development planning.
• Develop internationally accepted and standardized guidelines for the
implementation of ecosystem accounting.
• Promote widespread adoption of natural capital accounting beyond the pilot
countries.
• http://go.worldbank.org/1FM01NZUO0
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.20
WAVES Milestones
• Oct. 2010 - Partnership launched at the Biodiversity COP in Nagoya
• Oct. 2010 - Dec. 2011 - Preparation phase to set up the Partnership, establish a
policy and Technical Experts Committee to develop methodology for ecosystem
accounting, and to conduct feasibility and planning studies for pilot countries
• 2012 - 2015 - Implementation phase
• June 2012 - Propose an international program of action on ecosystem accounting
at the “Rio+20” Earth Summit
• 2015 - Results and recommendations disseminated at the 2015 Millennium
Development Goals Summit Review.
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.21
FAO’s SEEA-AGRI (Agriculture and Forestry and Fishery)
• Subsystem of the SEEA: Standard satellite account for the integration of agriculture
and environmental data;
• Different from other SEEA subsystem => focuses on one broad activity rather than
on one specific resource.
• Agriculture + Forestry + Fishery
• Based upon internationally agreed concepts, definitions, classifications and interrelated tables and accounts;
• Relevant for both developed and developing countries;
• Provides the conceptual framework for the Global Strategy to improve Agricultural
and Rural statistics, (UNSC, Feb. 2010):
– Foundation for integrating food and agricultural statistics into National Statistical System;
– Establishing a core minimum set of statistical indicators;
– Multidimensional information system that combines and harmonize data from various surveys and
censuses.
• Launched in September 2011
(From Pietro Gennari and Robert Mayo, FAO)
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.22
The SEEA-AGRI as SEEA subsystem
SNA
FAO agriculture and food
accounting
SEAFA
SEEA
EAA
SEEA accounts
Forest
SUA
Fishery
Water
Energy
Land and ecosystems
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
SEEA-AGRI
1.23
OECD – Eurostat Material Flows Accounts
Source: OECD 2008 - Measuring Material Flows And Resource Productivity
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/48/40485853.pdf
Jean-Louis
Weber, 27 February 2012
1.24
OECD – Eurostat Material Flows Accounts: Economy-wide Indicators
Source: OECD 2008 - Measuring Material Flows And Resource Productivity
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/48/40485853.pdf
Jean-Louis
Weber, 27 February 2012
1.24
NGOs: the GAISP, accounting for ecosystem services and assets
The first phase of GAISP comprises the publication
of the following eight
Monographs:
1 The Value of Timber, Carbon, Fuelwood, and NonTimber Forest Produce in India’s Forests
2 Estimating the Value of Agricultural Cropland and
Pasture Land in India
3 The Value of India’s Sub-Soil Assets
4 Eco-tourism and Biodiversity Values in India
5 Estimating the Value of Educational Capital
Formation in India
6 Investments in Health and Pollution Control and
their Value to India
7 Accounting for the Ecological Services of Indian
Forests: Soil Conservation, Water Augmentation,
and Flood Prevention
8 Estimating the Value of Freshwater Resources in
India
In this monograph, three ecological services of forest ecosystems, namely, prevention of
soil erosion, augmentation of groundwater, and reduction of flood damage have been
considered. Their total value is equivalent to that of timber.
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.25
NGOs: the Ecological Footprint accounts
•
•
•
•
The Ecological Footprint accounts compare the « biocapacity » of countries and the
Planet: capacity of land and sea to produce biomass for 1) human needs and 2)
sequestration of CO2
It records the Ecological Footprint embedded into international trade.
Strong communication tool.
Limited use as macro-economic tool.
The World
ecological
footprint is
subdivided
by countries
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/basics_introduction/
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.26
NGOs: the Water Footprint « accounts »
•
Water Footprint :
–
–
–
Blue Water: abstracted
Green Water: embedded in
agriculture and forestry products)
Grey water: waste water returned to
the water system
http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=files/home
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.27
EEA 2009: International Trade Statistics:
Virtual land use & agriculture footprints of Europe
Miljoenen
Land use in hectares
Net virtual land use between EU and major trade partners
18
UNITED STATES
16
UKRAINE
14
SAUDI ARABIA
12
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(RUSSIA)
INDONESIA (ID+TP from
77,excl. TP -> 2001)
GHANA
10
8
6
4
COTE D'IVOIRE
2
CANADA
0
-2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Years
BRAZIL
ARGENTINA
Trends in EU virtual land flows: EU agricultural land use through international trade between 1995-2005.
Manel van der Sleen, EEA 2009; Van der Sleen and Koellner 2011
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
Eurostat: NAMEA - National Accounting Matrix with Environmental Accounts
Source: Eurostat1999, NAMEA -Air
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.29
Eurostat: Expenditure (including taxes and subsidies)
• Characteristic activities for environmental protection (CEPA) and
management (CRUMA)
• production, financing and beneficiaries
• includes taxes and subsidies
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.30
31
EEA: Land and ecosystem accounts
need of ecosystem capital accounts to
measure capital maintenance
Source: Roy Haines-Young, in EEA report 11/2006
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
1.31
1.3
Example of
2
land cover account: sprawl of artificial
areas in Europe 1990-2006
Urban and infrastructure land development
"1990" - 2000 - EUR23 - ha/year
Land uptake by
mines, quarries and
w aste dumpsites
Land uptake by
transport netw orks &
infrastructures
Land uptake by
industrial &
commercial sites
Land uptake by
housing, services
and recreation
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
Origin of artificial land uptake as % of total,
"1990"- 2000, EUR23
6% 1%
9%
50000
60000
Arable land & permanent
crops
Pastures & mixed farmland
Forests and transitional
woodland shrub
Natural grassland, heathland,
sclerophylous vegetation
48%
Open spaces with little or no
vegetation
Wetlands
36%
Water bodies
Mean annual urban and infrastructures land take
as % of Artificial land cover "1990"
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
si
sk
E U uk
R2
3
pt
ro
lv
nl
pl
lt
lu
it
ie
fr
gr
hu
ee
es
cz
de
dk
at
be
bg
0.0
Mean annual urban and infrastructures land take
as % of total Europe-23 urban land take
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
uk
si
sk
ro
pt
pl
nl
lv
lu
lt
it
ie
hu
fr
gr
es
dk
ee
cz
de
bg
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
at
be
0.00
1.32
1.3
3 Natural capital approach and
GDP adjustment: the maintenance approach
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
– or +
Natural capital
depreciation, what
National Accounts
should record:
adjustment of National
Income and Final
Consumption
Transfers with the Rest of World
=
Gross National Income (GNI)
_
Consumption of Fixed Capital
=
National Income (NI or NNP)
--
Depletion of subsoil assets
--
Final
Consumption
at Purchaser’s
Price
+
Consumption of (domestic)
ecosystem capital
=
Adjusted Real Net National Income
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
+
Consumption of
ecosystem capital
embedded in Imports
(minus in Exports)
=
Final
Consumption at
Full Cost of
Commodities
1.33
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
Progress but slow progress…
Development of physical accounts in quantity
More progress needed in order to integrate qualitative aspects
Issues related to valuation:
– Of what? Services? Wealth? Damages? Remediation costs?
– Should we price the free services given by Nature?
– With which methodologies? At which scales? (see session 3)
• Capital approach is an option if economic capital and public goods
are not confused
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012
Thank you!
Jean-Louis Weber
Special Adviser on Economic Environmental Accounting
European Environment Agency
[email protected]
[email protected]
Jean-Louis Weber, 27 February 2012