Transcript Pan-European Institute

Russia - On the way to an
information society?
Prof. Kari Liuhto
Director
Pan-European Institute (PEI)
Turku School of Economics and B. A.
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
The Annual Conference of the Club of Rome
Teliasonera / Futurium
Helsinki
11.10.2004
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
Russia – geographically giant
but economically medium-sized

Some 17 mn square km – some 4 times
of the EU25 and twice the US territory

The Russian GDP (measured at PPP) less
than 15% of the EU or the USA –
comparable to the Italian economy
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Central
Territory
Population
GDP
Ind. prod.
Oil prod.
Exports
Imports
FDI
4%
25%
33%
23%
0%
32%
53%
56%
Southern
Territory
Population
GDP
Ind. prod.
Oil prod.
Exports
Imports
FDI
3%
15%
8%
6%
3%
4%
6%
5%
Source: Goskomstat
Russia’s 7 federal districts
North West
Territory
Population
GDP
Ind. prod.
Oil prod.
Exports
Imports
FDI
Siberian
10%
10%
10%
12%
4%
9%
20%
8%
Territory
Population
GDP
Ind. prod.
Oil prod.
Exports
Imports
FDI
30%
14%
11%
12%
3%
11%
6%
1%
Volga
Territory
Population
GDP
Ind. prod.
Oil prod.
Exports
Imports
FDI
6%
22%
18%
23%
22%
17%
7%
5%
Ural
Territory
Population
GDP
Ind. prod.
Oil prod.
Exports
Imports
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FDI
11%
9%
15%
19%
67%
24%
5%
7%
Far Eastern
Territory
Population
GDP
Ind. prod.
Oil prod.
Exports
Imports
FDI
36%
5%
5%
5%
1%
4%
3%
18%
Economic living standard
(2003 at PPP)
$ per capita
40000
37800
28200
30000
27600
20000
11100
10700
10000
8900
7600
5000
Source: CIA World Factbook
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Ch
in
a
il
Br
az
Ru
ss
ia
a
ric
Af
h
So
ut
Po
la
nd
m
an
y
Ge
r
Ja
pa
n
US
A
0
7 bad years and 7 good years
- how fast the economy grows in the future?
(annual real GDP change - %)
15
10
7
5
5
0
1991 92
93
94
95
96
97
98
-5
-10
-15
-20
Sources: EBRD, EIU
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
99 2000
1
2
3
4
5
Glorious past of tele-activity
in Russia
1850
 1879
 1895
 1911

construction of first telegraph
first telephone call
invention of radio by A. Popov
first demonstration of a TV
picture in the world
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ICT development after the Czar period

Absolute decline: Russia has lost her
forerunner position in the ICT sector
(due to the stagnant Soviet era and less
speedy transformation after 1991)

Relative decline: Other economies have
developed faster than Russia
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Russia’s telecommunication
sector today (2002)
Share of telecomm. in ICT sector
Telecommunication share of GDP
Employees
~ 70%
1.8%
1.7%
Fixed capital stock
1.4%
Investments in fixed capital
4.0%
Share of total services provided
for inhabitants in Russia
Sources: Goskomstat, Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
14.8%
Russia’s telecommunication
market ($ bn)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
12,6
6,9
7,4
8,7
6,7
4,1
5,1
6,6
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Sources: Goskomstat, Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
Distribution of sales in
telecommunication (2003)
Other
12 %
Cellular
47 %
Local
23 %
Intercity
13 %
Long distance
5%
Sources: Goskomstat, Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
Usage of cellular phones
36,4
40
25 %
30
20 %
17,7
20
10
30 %
15 %
10 %
7,8
3,3
5%
0
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
Number of users (scale on left - million)
Penetration rate (scale on right - %)
Sources: CNews, Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
Russia’s main data transmission lines
Sources: Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
Internet access
9,6
12
10
6,5
8
4,3
6
4
2
0,3
0,5
1996
1997
1,2
1,8
3,1
0
1998
1999 2000
2001
2002
Internet users (scale on left - million)
Penetration rate (scale on right - %)
Sources: CNews, Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
2003
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Digital access index (2002)
This index measures the overall ability of individuals in a country to
access and use new ICTs. It is built around four factors that impact a
country’s ability to access ICTs: 1) infrastructure, 2) affordability,
3) knowledge, and 4) quality.
1
0,85
0,78
0,8
0,75
0,74
0,67
0,6
0,5
0,43
0,4
0,21
0,2
0,04
m
an
y
E
st
on
ia
R
us
si
a
C
hi
Ta n a
ji k
is
ta
n
N
ig
er
an
A
S
U
Ja
p
G
er
S
w
ed
en
0
Source: International Telecommunication Union
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Number of ICT-related
graduates in Russia (2002)
Universities
3554
Of this: Networks
1451
Multi-channel systems
1132
Radio, broadcasting and television
686
Other
285
Technical schools
5851
Of this: Networks
2363
Multi-channel systems
Radio, broadcasting and television
Other
Sources: Goskomstat, Solid Invest, ETLA
1190
512
1786
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Production of ICT equipment
Equipment
PC (1000 units)
Phones (1000 units)
Telephone cables
(1000 km)
TV sets (1000 units)
Sources: Goskomstat, Solid Invest, ETLA
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
62
66
71
136
186
235
534
783
716
525
60
86
115
154
108
329
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
281 1116 1024 1980
Sales on ICT market ($ bn)
Product
PC
Components
Integrated systems
General-purpose software
Custom-made software
Total
Sources: CNews, Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
2002
2003
1.7
1.3
0.8
0.6
0.2
4.7
1.8
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.3
5.8
Main offshore programming centers
Sources: Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
Russia’s foreign trade of ICT
products ($ mn)
# HS
8517
Product
Electric apparatus for line
telephony and line telegraphy
Transmission apparatus for
8525 radio-telephony, radiobroadcasting
Reception apparatus for radio8527 telephony, radio-telegraphy and
radio-broadcasting
9001
Optical fibers and optical fiber
bundles
Sources: UN Commodity Trade Statistics, Solid Invest, ETLA
2002
Exports
2003
Imports Exports Imports
15
696
21
697
30
536
29
611
3
135
4
150
14
16
14
21
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Russia’s exports of software
($ mn)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
475
350
194
126
2000
2001
Sources: CNews, Solid Invest, ETLA
www.tukkk.fi/pei/e
2002
2003
Future view

Giant need for information society in a
territorially-giant country (e.g. news service, e-government,
e-commerce, e-education & training, e-medical services, etc.)

eRussia 2002-2010 –programme: a necessary but
not a sufficient step forward (total budget $ 2.6 bn)

Large investments required
(e.g. educational system, R&D, innovation funds, etc.)

Co-operation with leading foreign corporations,
universities, and research institutes needed
(e.g. EU-Russian common space of research and education)
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Some advantages of information society

Improving competitiveness of the Russian economy
(e.g. time savings, free information access, increasing quality of decision-making)

Efficient tool for administrative reform
(e.g. efficient communication and control system, information transparency,
distribution of best practices)

Increasing quality of life, particularly in peripheral regions

Increasing equality between regions and citizens

Increasing unity and stability of the country

Enhancing free information flows
(i.e. good for democratic development of the country)
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Conclusion: Russia – on the way
to an information society?
Hopefully,
Russia is on her way to
an information society
…
not on her way to
a formation society
with less emphasis on democratic development
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