Transcript Climate Change

Energy Policy PA 395
May 27, 2004
Gary Flomenhoft
http://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395/
Course Goals
Governance:
International
US
Vermont
Fri, June 11:
Attend Vermont VELCO
Hearing
“There is nothing more difficult to carry out,
more doubtful of success, nor more
dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new
order of things. For those who would
institute change have enemies in all those
who profit by the old order, and they have
only lukewarm defenders in all those who
would profit by the new order.”
Nicolo Machiavelli, 1490
Climate Change
Summary of Facts
2 Billion Years of Temperature
History
300 Million yrs of
CO2
60 Million yrs of
CO2
Summary of Units
K=Kilo=thousand=103
M=Mega=million=106
G=Giga=Billion=109
T=Tera=Trillion=1012
Quad=Quadrillion=1015
Exa=1018
Relevant units:
BTU= Unit of energy needed to raise one pound of
water by one degree fahrenheit=1005J
=778ft-lb=252cal
Joule=. 0.001 BTU
Watts=VxA=1 Joule/second
Watt-hour=one Watt for one hour
Quad=Quadrillion (1015) BTU
Metric tons per GWhe
The Carbon Question
963
1000
800
726
600
484
400
200
8
7
5
4
0
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear Wind
PV
Solar
Thermal
1
0
0
0
1
0
5
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
5
0
1
2
0
0
1
2
5
0
1
3
0
0
1
3
5
0
1
4
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
5
0
0
1
5
5
0
1
6
0
0
1
6
5
0
1
7
0
0
1
7
5
0
1
8
0
0
1
8
5
0
1
9
0
0
1
9
5
0
2
0
0
0
World GDP Billions US$$
$10,000
$1,000
330
World GDP
CO2 level
310
$100
290
$10
270
$1
250
ATMOSPHERIC CO2
World GDP and CO2
$100,000
370
350
Composition of U.S. Energy Use
100
75
coal
wood
oil
50
gas
25
animal
feed
electricity
0
1800
1825 1850
1875
1900 1925
1950 1975
2000
GDP 1825: ~$200 BILLION
2000: $41,000 B ILLION OR $41 TRILLION
=205X 1825 level.
ATM CO2 CONCENTRATION parts per million(ppm)
CO2 vs WORLD GDP
370
350
330
310
290
270
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
WORLD GDP Billions of 1990 Intl $$ Log scale (source: De Long)
$100,000
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970
100%
80%
Labor
Fuel
60%
40%
20%
Domesticated
Animals
0%
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
Annual Emissions (GtC)
14
Greenhouse gas emission
scenarios
12
Stabilization Targets
10
8
6
4
450 ppmv
550
650
750
2
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?
Business-as-usual
Kyoto Protocol scenario
Billion tons of carbon
8
6
8.0
7.6
6.4
5.8
4
2
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International
Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.
2010
Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-1996
15,715
China
11,651
German y
8,504
Ja pan
7,415
United Kin gdom
India
4,235
Can ada
4,054
Sou th Africa
2,331
Me xico
2,118
Aus tralia
2,080
1,557
Brazil
1,361
Korea , Rep .
966
Indon esia
50,795
United States
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Millio n tons of carbo n
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
50,000
60,000
Per capita emissions of carbon from
industrial sources, 1996
4.63
Austra lia
Russian Fede ra tion
2.91
Germa ny
2.87
2.59
Unite d Kingdo m
2.54
J apan
2.46
Ko re a, Re p.
2.10
Ukraine
1.88
So uth Africa
1.02
Mexico
0.76
China
0.46
Brazil
0.33
Indo nesia
0.29
India
5.37
Unite d States
0
1
2
3
4
Thousand tons of carbon
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
5
6
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE
Arctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
Europe in August 2003
COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILS
Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in
parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were
France
14,802
the highest since record-keeping began in 1873.
7000
High temperatures of up to 105.4 degrees
Fahrenheit, the hottest since records began in
1901, raised mortality some 10 percent above
average.
4230
High temperatures coupled with elevated groundlevel ozone concentrations exceeding the European
Union's health-risk threshold.
Italy
UK
Neth
Portugal
Belgium
4175
2045
1400
1316
150
Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16
degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year.
TOTAL
35,118
Germany
Spain
The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures
were recorded in London.
Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer
than normal.
Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit
throughout much of the country.
Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal
Meteorological Society's records dating back to
1833.
Ocean Conveyor Belt-(Thermohaline)
Methane-hydrates
"Kyoto and its policies are inconsistent with
freedom, prosperity and environmental policy
progress," said Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla.,
the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on
Environment and Public Works. "I’m becoming
more and more convinced, as time goes by
and we look at the research, that global
warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated
on the American people and the world."
MSNBC News Link 12/10/03