Transcript ISI_KRAIL_ASTRA_Model_Description_ETIS+_100623

A S T R A – A s s e s s m e n t o f Tr a n s p o r t
Strategies
E T I S + W o r k s h o p ; J u n e , 2 3 rd 2 0 1 0 , B r u s s e l s
D r. M i c h a e l K r a i l , F r a u n h o f e r - I S I
Car_Scrappage_Ratio
Input ENV_car
Input MAC_con
Consumption_for_New_Cars
+
Purchase_Cars_CC_ES
Car_Scrappage_CC_ES
+
+
Car_Prices_CC_ES
+
+
Car_Fleet_Total
Diffusion_New_ES
Technology Share
Share_New_Cars_CC
Car_Scrappage_Total
+
New_Cars_CC_ES
Car_Ownership
+
+
+
Car_Fleet_CC
ES
+
+
+
-
New_Cars_CC
+
Delta_Car_Prices
Registration_New_Cars
Total
+
-
+
+
Minimum_Replacement_Cars
+
Delta_Population_Density
Delta_Variable_Costs
Delta_Population
Delta_Income_per_Adult
Output POLES
Output MAC_con
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
© Fraunhofer ISI
Output POP
Overview on ASTRA: key parameters
 ASTRA is an integrated assessment model based on System Dynamics and




implemented with Vensim
ASTRA consists of a system of integrated models each with different purpose
Spatial coverage: EU27 plus Norway and Switzerland, trade with 12 world
regions
Time horizon: 1990 – 2050 (calibration period 1990 – 2003/2006)
Original purpose of ASTRA (1997): strategic assessment of EU transport
policies. "Strategic" meant long-term and integrated
Seite 2
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Overview on ASTRA: structure
Key features:
Integrated models
Potential Labour Force
System Dynamics (Vensim)
GDP, (Un -)Employment, Sectoral Output
800 MB of output data
Time horizon 2050
Abbreviations for 9 Modules:
POP = Population Module
MAC = Macroeconomics Module
REM = Regional Economics Module
FOT = Foreign Trade Module
TRA = Transport Module
VFT = Vehicle Fleet Module
ENV = Environment Module
WEM = Welfare Measurement Module
INF = Infrastructure Module
REM
Goods-Flows
-
Exports, Imports
INF
FOT
TRA Time
Generalized Cost
Transport Expenditure,
Performance, Time
TRA
Fuel Tax Revenue, VAT
GDP, Employment, ....
Fuel Price
VFT
Fleet Structure
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
ENV
TRA
Time
TRA Flows
Transport Demand
VKT
8 modes (P+F)
Disposable Income
>20000 OD flows (P, F)
GDP, Productivity
Transport Cost, Time
Emissions, Noise,
Accidents
WEM
Car Fleet
MAC
25 economic sectors
Fuel
Price
76 zones
Seite 3
© Fraunhofer ISI
Population Structure
POP
Investment
27 EU countries (+ NO, CH)
Consumption, Investment in Vehicles, VAT









Population Change
Overview on ASTRA: transport modes and
vehicle fleets








Passenger modes: slow, car, bus, rail, air
Freight modes: truck (LDV, HDV), rail, ship
Road fleet models with 1-year age cohorts
Car fleet: gasoline (<1.4l, 1.4-2.0l, >2.0l), diesel (<2.0l, >2.0l), CNG, LPG,
hybrid (1st generation), bioethanol, electric, hydrogen fuel cell, up to 9
emission standards
Heavy duty vehicle fleet: <12ton gross vehicle weight, >12ton, up to 8
emission standards
Light duty vehicle fleet: gasoline, diesel, up to 8 emission standards
Train, ship, air: technical characteristics by trip purpose
Driving situations: passenger: 5, freight: 4
Seite 4
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
ASTRA applications
 Transport policy assessment: pricing, taxation, TEN infrastructure,
emissions and efficiency standards, Cost-benefit-analysis of transport projects
(ASTRA, TIPMAC, IASON, DESIRE, REVENUE, ASSESS)
 Technology and scenario analysis: technology and employment policy,
hydrogen technology strategy, integrated energy and transport scenarios,
energy and transport policy (IPTS-Employment Study, STEPs, TRIAS,
MATISSE, HOP!, iTREN-2030, GHG-TransPoRD)
 Renewables policy assessment: subsidies, feed-in tarifs, investment
strategies (PROGRESS, Employ-RES, Employ-RES-D)
 Climate policy assessment: transport policy, EU-ETS, energy scenarios,
investment strategies, cost implications (ASTRA, ADAM, Policy scenarios for
climate protection IV and V, IKEP-Makro)
Seite 5
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Advantages and drawbacks of ASTRA
Advantages
 Integrated analysis considering feedbacks and rebound effects
 Flexibility of policy implementation (stepwise, varying intensity, packaging,
variety of measures)
 Time is explicitely modelled (points of time and delays matter!)
 Long-term time horizon (2050)
 Not grounded on mainstream economic theory (no equilibrium modeling)
Drawbacks
 So far, level of detail not sufficient for regional analysis below country level
 Increase of model size due to increase of integrated purposes handled by
ASTRA
Seite 6
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Input parameters and references
Input parameters
 Calibration data or trends to which parts of model are adapted (e.g.
population)
 Exogenous parameters: (labour productivity), (consumption split), energy
prices, (emission factors)
References
 EUROSTAT online database (various themes)
 OECD and COMEXT trade statistics
 EC Energy and Transport in Figures and related sources
 Network model data on transport (e.g. SCENES, VACLAV, TRANSTOOLS)
 Swiss/German handbook on emission factors, MEET project, COPERT for
speed adaptations
Specific
questions
Seite 7
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
A S T R A : h i s t o r y, m i l e s t o n e s a n d p r o j e c t s




1997
2001
2003
2005-2007
 2007-2010
 Projects:
Policy
iTREN-
Seite 8
© Fraunhofer ISI
Start of model development, 2000 completed
Structural adaptation to 15 countries, 25 sectors
Extension to 29 countries
Inclusion of renewable energy models, consolidation and
linkage with energy models
Linkage with bottom-up models for climate policy
assessment, economic assessment of impacts of high oil
prices, employment impact of renewable energy policy
ASTRA, IPTS-Employment Study, ASTRA-Italy, DESIRE,
TIPMAC, IASON, SAT, LOTSE, REVENUE, STEPs, TRANSTOOLS, TRIAS, Renewable Energies, MATISSE, ADAM,
Scenarios for Climate Protection , HOP!, KlimInvest,
2030, EMPLOY-RES, IKEP-Makro, GHG-TransPoRD
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
iTREN-2030: Impacts of Economic Crisis
on transport (Integrated Scenario)
8,000
Domestic freight tkm by mode in EU27
7,000
6,000
5,000
[Bio tkm]
[billion pkm]
Motorised passenger surface transport demand INT vs REF
6,000
5,000
Diff to REF
4,000
3,000
4,000
Train
IWW
Bus
3,000
Ship
Car
Train
2,000
Truck
2,000
1,000
0
Van
1,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
0
2005
Seite 9
© Fraunhofer ISI
2010
2015
2020
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
2025
2030
i T R E N - 2 0 3 0 : c a r t e c h n o l o g y d i ff u s i o n
EU27 car fleet by technology
[Million Vehicles]
300
250
Hydrogen
200
Bioethanol
Electric
150
Hybrid
LPG
CNG
100
Diesel
Gasoline
50
0
2005
Seite 10
© Fraunhofer ISI
2010
2015
2020
2025
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
2030
P o l i c y S c e n a r i o s f o r C l i m a t e P r o t e c t i o n I V: C o n t r i b u t i o n
to CO2 reductions by single transport measures
CO2-savings by measures of Climate Policy scenario [Mt CO2]
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
-100
Example
application
Introduction kerosene tax
(30.2 ct/l)
Air transport in EU-ETS
Extension HGV km-charge
CO2 differentiated circulation
tax
Low resistance types /
lubricants
Increase of biofuel quotas
Doubling of HGV user costs
Diesel tax raised to gasoline
tax (65.4 ct/l)
Mandatory CO2 emission
limits cars (2012: 130 g/km)
2010
Seite 11
© Fraunhofer ISI
2015
2020
2025
2030
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Abolishment commuting
subsidy
Further information on recent ASTRA
results
 Policy scenarios for climate protection IV: completed March 2007, also
reporting to UNFFCC (German report for download at German EPA, only
summary in English: www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdfl/3361.pdf)
 TRIAS: www.isi.fraunhofer.de/TRIAS
 HOP: www.hop-project.eu
 iTREN-2030: www.isi.fraunhofer.de/projects/iTREN-2030
Seite 12
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Thank you for your attention!
Dr. Michael Krail
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
Karlsruhe, Germany
Email: [email protected]
Tel.: +49 – (0)721 6089 429
Seite 13
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
ASTRA model:
Overview of spatial
representation
Spatial disaggregation for EU29
countries:
14 EU15 countries (B+L)
each with 4 functional zones
12 new EU member states plus Swi +
Nor
with 1-2 functional zones
At maxiumum four functional zones
per country classified by settlement
density:
Metropolitan zone
High density zone
Medium density zone
Low density zone
Seite 14
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Passenger transport model
ASTRA socio-economic framework
GDP
Infrastructure
Investment
Income
Car fleet by
car types
Infrastructure
Capacity
Travel time
Generalized
cost O/D
Generalized
cost modes
Transport
distribution
Modal-split
Population
Transport
generation
Employment
Transport
demand
Occupancy
rates
Passenger transport model
Seit
Seite 15
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Freight transport model
ASTRA socio-economic framework
Infrastructure
Investment
GDP
Infrastructure
Capacity
Travel time
Generalized
cost O/D
Generalized
cost modes
Transport
demand
Trade flows
National transport
generation
Sectoral output
Value-tovolume ratios
Seit
Transport
distribution
Modal-split
Load factors
Freight transport model
Seite 16
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Car fleet and car choice model
ASTRA socio-economic framework
Infrastructure
Investment
GDP
Car taxes
Policy and
new technologies
Filling station
network
Existing car fleet
by age,
by technology,
by emission stand.
Choice of
new cars
Fuel price
Purchase of
new cars
Income
Car prices
Scrapped
cars
Car-ownership
Population
Car fleet and car choice model
Seit
Seite 17
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Ageing of
car fleet
ASTRA structure of economic modules
Private Cap.
TFP
Public Cap.
Capital Stock
Employment
Labour Supply
Population
(Resource Inp.)
Income
Export
Depreciation
Potential Output
GDP Supply Side
(national)
> < GDP
Consumption
Investment
Final Demand
Trade Balance
Fuel taxes
Subsidies
Value-added tax
Indirect taxes
Other taxes
Direct taxes
Import
Gov. consum.
(by sector)
Net national product
GDP Demand Side
National income
Transfers
Social contrib.
18
Seite 18
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Disposable income
P S z - I V: C l i m a t e P o l i c y s c e n a r i o d e s c r i b e d b y l i s t o f
planned policy measures
• Complete abolishment of commuting subsidy (tax exemption)
• Equal taxation of gasoline and diesel fuel i.e. increase of diesel fuel tax
• Strengthening of voluntary agreement with ACEA to reach in 2012: 130 g CO2
/km and in 2030: 100 g CO2 /km of average fleet in Germany
• Inclusion of air transport in EU-ETS gradually but fully until 2013
• Introduction of kerosene tax in 2013 (30.2 ct/l)
• Extension of HGV charge on total long distance road network
• Doubling of HGV user cost until 2015
• 100% market penetration of low rolling resistance tyres and highly fluid oils
• Increase of mandatory biofuel quotas: 2020: 12.5 % 2030: 25%
Seite 19
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies