Transcript ppt - egnret

New and Renewable Energy in the APEC Region
Prospects For Electricity Generation
APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group
Twenty-Third Meeting
10-13 November 2004
Jaya Singam Rajoo
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Outline

Background
 Key findings of current study – NRE in APEC Region
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
NRE’s Status in APEC Region
Scenario analysis results
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Policy Options
 New Study - Renewable Electricity in APEC Region
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Objective
Socio-economic benefits of NRE
Indicators
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Background
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APEC Energy Ministers’ concern
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The significance of new and renewable energy has
been stressed by the APEC Energy Ministers from the
1st Energy Minister’s Meeting held in Sydney, Australia
in 1996 to the 6th Meeting held in Manila 2004

“Energy diversification broadens our choice of energy
sources and technologies and… increased
development and deployment of renewable energy
technologies.”
– APEC Energy Minister’s Meeting, Manila, 2004
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APERC’s Research Activities related to NRE
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Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (1998)
Sustainable Electricity Supply Options for the APEC
Region (2001)
Making the Clean Development Mechanisms Work (2001)
Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (2002)
Alternative Development Scenarios for Electricity and
Transport to 2020 (2002)
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Scope
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Wind
Solar – Photovoltaics
Geothermal
Biomass
Small Hydro
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Wind – current status
 The cost of wind power in favourable wind regime declined
by 47% between 1990 and 2000 and may decline another
38% by 2010
 Wind capacity grew 14% annually in APEC and 33% per
year globally from 1993-2003
 Highest annual growth in New Zealand with 67% (albeit
small base) followed by Japan-54%, Australia-44%,
Canada-32% and China-29%
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Photovoltaics – current status
 Annual growth rate of about 33% from 1971-2000
 Costs are still very high (~ US$0.60 per kWh) but are
expected to decline substantially to US$0.13 in 2025 &
US$0.09 by 2050
 Mostly utilised for off-grid applications (e.g. highway lighting,
remote villages) except for Japan & EU economies
 Distributed rooftop applications – huge in Japan and will be
the next major market by reducing balance of system costs by
combining PV modules with roof tiles
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Geothermal Installed Capacity
9000
GW
8000
7974.06
USA
7000
6833.38
6000
5831.72
5000
5038.65
Thailand
6518.04
Russia
Philippines
5846.41
New Zealand
Mexico
Japan
4000
Indonesia
China
3000
Australia
2000
World Total
APEC Total
1000
0
1990
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1995
2000
Hydro Power
Source: WEC – Survey of Energy Resources 2001.
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Scenario Analysis – Reference Scenario
NRE Composition
3000
Wind would
remain the fastest
growing
technology
2500
2000
Solar PV
Wind
Others
Geothermal
Biomass
TWh 1500
1000
Biomass takes
substantial share
500
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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SCENARIO ANALYSIS
40% NRE SHARE BY 2050
EARLY AND LATE NRE SCENARIOS
40,000
35,000
EARLY NRE
LATE NRE
STARTING (2010)
STARTING (2020)
30,000
NRE
Nuclear
Hydro
Natural gas
Oil based
Coal
TWH
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2000
2025
2050
2000
2025
Impact on fuel and CO2 emissions
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2050
SCENARIO Analysis
POWER GENERATION BY FUEL
COAL POWER PLANT
Million ton
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2000
2005
2010
3.1 REFERENCE Scenario
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2015
2020
2025
2030
3.2 EARLY NR SCENARIO
2035
2040
2045
2050
3.3 LATE NR SCENARIO
SCENARIO Analysis
POWER GENERATION BY FUEL
GAS FOR POWER GENERATION
BCM
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
3.1 REFERENCE Scenario
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3.2 EARLY NR SCENARIO
3.3 LATE NR SCENARIO
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
GHG EMISSIONS
TOTAL CO2 Emissions in APEC
Billion ton
25
20
15
10
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2.1 REFERENCE Scenario
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2.2 EARLY NR Scenario
2.3 LATE NR Scenario
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
ANNUAL COST OF CO2 Emissions at 20 US$/ton
(billion US$)
450
400
350
US$ 260
billion
300
250
200
150
100
50
2000
2005
2010
2015
2.1 REFERENCE Scenario
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2020
2025
2030
2.2 EARLY NR Scenario
2035
2040
2045
2050
2.3 LATE NR Scenario
Conclusions
MARKET DRIVEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
UNDER
DEVELOPMENT
COAL
OIL
GAS
BIOMASS
GEOTHERMAL
WIND
PV
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
POLICY DRIVEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
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Policy Options
 Demand Pull Strategies
 Financial Incentives
 Market Facilitation and Investment
 Rural Electrification Policy
 Distributed Generation Policy
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Policy Options
Demand Pull Strategies
 Renewable Portfolio Standards
 Non-Fossil-Fuel-Obligation (UK, 1990-1997)
 Feed-in Tariffs (resulted in 8,500MW of installed wind from
1991-2001 in Germany)
 Green certificate (US, Australia, Japan, UK, Denmark &
Belgium)
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Policy Options
Financial incentives
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Subsidies and rebates (Sunshine Programme -Japan, “Million solar
roofs”- US)
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Tax relief (Investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation,
production tax credits, property tax incentives, personal income tax
incentives, sales tax incentives, pollution tax exemptions, etc)
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Grants
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Loans (varies in amount – residential,
industrial)
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commercial and
Policy Options
Market facilitation and investment
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Carbon tax, System Benefits Charge
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NRE access laws (allows property owners to access NRE resources)
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Infrastructure policy
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Government procurement
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Public awareness programme
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Policy Options
Rural Electrification Policy
 Energy Service Concession
 Microcredit and Rural Business Development
 Line extension Analyses
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Policy Options
Distributed Generation Policies
 Real-time pricing
 Net metering
 Interconnection Regulation
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Conclusions
Main Enabling policies
 Demand pull strategy – RPS, Feed-in-Tariff…
 Financial Incentives – Various incentives/subsidy, tax relief, grants,
loans…
 Distributed generation – net metering, real time pricing…
 Market facilitation – SBC, carbon tax, government procurement…
NRE resources – to include in national energy balance
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Conclusions
Developing economies :
i)
adopting innovative financing mechanisms
e.g. Worldbank/GEF PERMER in Argentina
ii)
developing local manufacturing capacity
for components of NRE technology like
PVs, e.g. China, India, Thailand…
iii)
removing/reducing subsidies on fossil fuels
to improve NRE’s competitiveness
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Conclusions
iv)
improve legal and regulatory framework to
address intellectual property rights issues,
as well as improve the tax system to
encourage developed economies to
transfer NRE technology
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Part II
Renewable Electricity in the APEC
Region
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Objectives and Scope
• Assessing the real cost of electricity from renewable
sources and conventional fuels
• Quantifying externalities - emissions from electricity
generation and its impacts (Health, Air pollution, Water
and land pollution, Thermal pollution, Global warming )
• Different types of subsidy received by conventional
energy producer and its impacts
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Key Issues
 Real Costs of electricity ?
 Subsidy for NRE & conventional energy
 Socio-economic benefits of renewable energy
 Externalities – Negative impacts of fossil fuel
combustion
 Measuring externalities
 Modelling renewable energy
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Indicators
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Indicators
Summary of Indicators
Category
Indicators
Emissions
SocioEconomic
Annual Emissions
Cumulative Emissions
Contributions to
Concentration Increase
Contributions to Temperature
Increase
Health
Education
Income and Economy
Access to Electricity
Carbon Intensity of energy
use
Carbon Intensity of electricity
production
Carbon Intensity of Economy
Governance
Source :WRI, Indicator Framework Paper, 2003
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Units
Tons of carbon equivalent
Tons of carbon equivalent
National share (%) & per person (index)
National share (%) & per person (index)
Healthy life expectancy, in years
Index value: combination of literacy rates and
school enrollment rates
1) Income per capita: GDP (PPP) per capita
2) Size of economy: total GDP (PPP)
Percent of population with access
Carbon emissions per unit energy consumption
Carbon emissions per unit kWh (electricity
production only)
GHG emissions per unit GDP (PPP)
Index value covering six areas of governance
The cost of annual energy subsidies (1995-98, $US
billion)
Notes: a) Subsidies for electricity in OECD countries have been attributed to fossil fuels according the shares.
b) Subsidies from non-payments and bail out operations have not been attributed to energy sources.
Source: de Moor, 2001, and WRI, CAIT (for GDP numbers)
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