Transcript New measures of public sector output

New measures of public
sector output
Andrew Mortimer
Short-term Economic Indicators Branch
[email protected]
• Background
– Why new measures are required
– implementation
• Public administration and defence
– Civil service and local authorities
– Defence
– Public order and safety
• Education
– Public sector (to be covered later)
– Further education
– Higher education
• Health & Social work
– Health
– Adult social services
– Children’s social services
Background
GDP – weights and series
Sector
2003 Weight
(percent)
Number of Series
Agriculture etc
2%
7
Oil & Mining
1%
4
Manufacturing
15%
144
Energy & Water
3%
3
Construction
7%
11
Services
50%
78
Public Services
22%
19
Total
100%
266
Historical context
• Previous assumption of non-market output = inputs
• System of National Accounts 1993 / European
System of National Accounts 1995
• Eurostat price and volume handbook (2001)
– ‘A’ methods: multiple direct measures of output, quality
adjusted
– ‘B’ methods: Output indicator, not quality adjusted; or
multiple quality adjusted input measures for collective
services
– ‘C’ methods: Use of single input volume indicators (e.g.
employment)
• ONS response to ESA95 – ahead of the game
• Atkinson review
Actions
• Supply data to ONS for UK National
Accounts.
• Replicate productivity analysis for Scotland.
• Ensure UK assumptions make sense for
Scotland.
• Consider inclusion in Scottish GDP system.
• Consider policy relevance of new measures
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October
• New economic target makes Scotland/UK
comparability ESSENTIAL!
• Will introduce as many new measures as possible
into the next release of quarterly GDP
– Ideally quality-adjusted output
– Implement simple output measures if they are
similar to UK
– May consider revised input-based methods if they
are an improvement over current estimates.
• Improve scope for further incremental improvements.
Public Administration and Defence
Public Administration and Defence
7.2% of Scottish GVA
Current measures
Proposed measures
Civil Servants – numbers employed
FTE employment in Civil Service by grade,
weighted by salary.
---DWP also included---
Armed Forces personnel based in Scotland.
No change
Number of administrative and clerical staff in
NHS
No change
FTE employees in Local Government
FTE employment by grade, weighted by
salary.
Scottish Police and related services numbers
No change
New series: Direct output measures for
justice services
FTE employment on Fire Services
Direct output measures – numbers of fires
attended, weighted cost by type; hours spent
on fire prevention activities; RTAs.
Changes in grade structure of the
Scottish Government 1999-2007
SCS
Others
C3
C2
C1
BF
B3
B2
B1
A4
A3
A1/A2
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1999
200
2007
400
600
800
1000
Justice services
• Currently not measured explicitly
• New cost weighted activity measures:
– Number of convictions:
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High Court
Sheriff Solemn
Sheriff Summary
District
– Social work orders:
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Probation Orders
Community Service Orders
Supervised Attendance Orders
Drug Treatment & Testing Orders
Restriction of Liberty Orders
Social Enquiry Reports
– Prisons:
• Average daily prison populations
Fire services
• Currently using staff numbers
• New cost weighted activity measures:
– Fire response
• 51 distinct measures
• Type of residence / industry
– Special services
• Road traffic accident
• Other
– Fire prevention
• No comparable Scottish measures available at this time (number of
hours engaged in fire prevention and community safety)
• Low weight
• Use UK data in the interim
Education
Education
6.5% of Scottish GVA
Current measures
Proposed measures
Primary school teachers/
Secondary school teachers
Direct measure of output: number of pupils,
adjusted by attendance and quality
adjustment for changes in attainment.
New measures: special education, teacher
training and nursery education.
LA – other education employees
Delete: included in output measures
Number of grant-aided and independent
teachers
Number of students in independent schools.
Number of teachers in FE colleges
Number of students (hours attended), cost
weighted by type of course
Number of University lecturers.
Number of students in higher education.
Further Education
• Currently Using Staff Numbers.
• Further Education Funding Council PIs
– Student Units of Measurement (SUMs)
• 40 Hours of Staff student contact.
– Cost Weightings (13 broad course types) are also
available.
– Further PIs allow for future quality adjustment
• Success and retention measures which depend on nature of
course. (e.g. assessed or non-assessed.)
• Comparable to current UK approach (but better).
Further Education
105
100
95
90
85
80
1999
2000
2001
2002
Current measure
2003
2004
Proposed measure
2005
2006
Higher Education
• Currently Using Staff Numbers
• Higher Education Statistics Agency
– FTE Student Numbers are available and propose to use.
– Complete alignment with existing UK measures
• Future refinements:
– Quality Adjustments possible in principle but will require further
development
– Candidate measures for research activity are less obvious.
Potentially:
• numbers of PhD’s awarded; or
• deflated research grants and contracts.
Health and Social Work
Health
6.2% of Scottish GVA
Current measures
Proposed measures
Health: Employees in Employment:
NHS
To be determined. Possibly change
to deflated expenditure whilst a
direct measure of quality adjusted
output is finalised.
GPs
Included in above
Dentists
Included in above
Private and other health
No change.
Veterinary practices
No change.
Health services
• Currently use 3 employment series
– NHS staff; GP’s and Dentists
• Direct measure of output still in development
• Alternative approach: deflated inputs
– 74 distinct measures (staff and supplies)
– Deflated at source using unit costs
– If used, will lead to minimum change to existing estimates
• Final decision on approach to be confirmed
Social services
6.2% of Scottish GVA
Current measures
Proposed measures
FTE Employees in LA Social Work
Activities
New direct measures of output for
adult and children’s services; number
of bed-nights in residential care,
number of hours in day care and
domiciliary care, number of referrals
etc.
Non-LA employees in Social Work
activities
Ditto.
Social services
• 10 new direct output measures
– Adults
• Care Homes (resident weeks per year)
• Home Care (hours per year)
• Day Care (sessions per year)
– Children
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Secure Accommodation (child-days)
Residential Schools (number of pupils)
Care Homes (number of children)
Adoption Services (number of children)
Fostering/Family Placements (number of children)
Assessment (deflated inputs)
Other Services (deflated inputs)
• Weighted by relative cost of delivering each service
Conclusions
Conclusions
• Significant methodological improvements to be
introduced in next GDP release
• Improved comparability with UK methods
• Greater scope for future incremental improvements
• Too early to gauge full impact
• Further work over next 12 months on:
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Direct output measures for Health services
Replication of UK measures of social security output
Quality adjustment of Higher & further education
Replication of future UK developments for Scotland
Discussion
New measures of public sector
output
Reserve slides
Atkinson Review - History
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2003 - No 10 !
Tony Atkinson – 1 Year’s commission
Interim Report – July 2004
Final Report – January 2005
54 recommendations to improve the
measurement of public services output and
productivity
Implementation Strategy for Scotland – April 05
Action Plans – updated quarterly
Working teams set up in Scottish Executive.
Established links with ONS UKCeMGA.
Atkinson: summary of key
principles
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Principle A: the measurement of government non-market output
should aim to follow a procedure parallel to that adopted for market
output.
Principle B: the output of the government sector should in principle be
measured in a way that is adjusted for quality of the service delivered.
Principle C: account should be taken of the complementarity
between public and private output – e.g. NHS output increasing
private sector productivity.
Principle E: measures should cover the whole of the United
Kingdom; and reflect regional variation in the delivery of public
services and/or data collection.
Principle F: the measurement of inputs should be as comprehensive
as possible, and in particular should include capital services – e.g.
imputed rent for buildings
Principle G: Pay and price deflators should be sufficiently
disaggregated to take account of changes in the mix of inputs; and
should reflect full and actual costs.
Atkinson Recommendations
Input (proxy)
Poor
Total Inputs - deflated
Better
Output (proxy)
Even Better
Total quality-adjusted
Output - deflated
Good!