the economic resiliency plan - Philippine Federation of Local
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Transcript the economic resiliency plan - Philippine Federation of Local
Presented by RD Arturo G. Valero
During the General Assembly of the Philippine Federation of Local
Councils of Women (PFLCW), Inc.
November 19, 2009, Top Plaza Hotel, Dipolog City
What is ERP
the country’s response to the global crisis
aims to stimulate the economy
also seeks to prepare the country for the eventual
upturn
a mix of government spending, tax cuts and publicprivate sector projects
Objectives of ERP
Ensure sustainable growth and attain the higher end of
the growth targets;
Save and create as many jobs as possible;
Protect the most vulnerable sectors – poorest of the
poor, returning overseas Filipino workers, and workers
in export industries;
Ensure low and stable prices; and
Improve competitiveness in preparation for the global
economic rebound.
Strategies for ERP
Implement budget interventions
Accelerate spending for small infrastructure projects
Expand social protection program
Save and create jobs
Implement off-budget interventions
Other measures
Budget interventions
Increased budget for departments in:
Infrastructure
Social protection
Agriculture
Health
Education
Maximize d personal services (PS) budget
Maximized MOOE
Small infrastructure projects
Front-load resources for full and quick spending
Focus on projects that are:
quick-disbursing
high impact
labor intensive
Obligate at least 60 percent of spending program in
the first semester
Social protection programs
P5.0B conditional cash transfers to cover additional
321,000 poor households
P1.0B to PhilHealth as full contribution to the national
insurance program
P2.0B to TESDA to equip more Filipinos with skills for
income generation
P1.97 B to the DOH to improve primary and secondary
hospitals
Save and create jobs
DOLE interventions for overseas Filipinos:
Monitor overseas labor market displacements
Monitor contracts of job orders overseas
Worker registration
Redeployment services to other emerging labor markets
Identify and develop new market niches
Repatriation assistance
Expand livelihood/business formation programs
Reintegration and business counseling
Skills upgrading and retooling services
Save and create jobs
Early warning system to know which firms are likely to
shut down or shed workers
Alternatives to laying off workers:
shortened work shifts
maximized vacation leaves
rotating forced leaves
Comprehensive livelihood and emergency
employment programs (CLEEP)
Off-budget interventions
Tapping resources of GOCCs and GFIs for large infra
Enhanced social security benefits to members
Accelerating spending for comprehensive and
integrated infrastructure program (CIIP), namely:
Official development assistance
National budget/general appropriations act
National-local government cost sharing
Public-private partnership/joint venture
Corporate funds
Proceeds from those mandated by law (i.e. EPIRA)
Other measures
Government will ramp up its housing programs
Expand trade with China and West Asia
Encourage exporting firms to diversify, innovate and
upgrade products.
Funding the ERP
P330B economic resiliency plan
P160B increase in the 2009 budget
P40B tax cuts for low and middle income earners
P100B large infrastructure projects funded GFIs, social
security institutions and private commercial banks
P30B additional benefits to members by social security
institutions
Challenge for MSMEs
Focus on basic consumer commodities
Cling on labor
Operate just to weather the storm
Develop forward processing activities
Improve on technology/processes
Why basic commodities
Antidote to recession: spending
Natural tendency in crisis: saving
There are basic necessities: people eat
Things should be affordable
Why focus on labor
Household income needs to be sustained
Purchasing power necessary for spending
Enhance money circulation
Avert unrest
Why operate for subsistence
To be able to offer affordable products
Sustain demand
Save jobs
Why develop forward industries
Enhance value added of products
Available raw materials
Skills/technology likely available
Why improve on technology
To enhance competitiveness
To lower operating costs
Ensure quality products
Economic Resiliency Plan worked
GDP Q2 year-on-year growth of 1.5%, quarter-on-
quarter growth of 2.4%
Public construction up by 29.9%
Government consumption up by 9.1%
Unemployment feared to rise due to the crisis. It
actually fell due to CLEEP: from 8.0% in April 2008 to
7.5% in April 2009
OF remittances still defy gravity
Lay-offs down due to rehiring
Workers Displaced by the Crisis
October 2008
November 2008
December 2008
January 2009
February 2009
March 2009
April 2009
May 2009
June 2009
4,224
9,448
11,433
12,392
9,126
15,895
2,554
1,776
1,590
2009-2010 Growth Outlook
Indicator
2009
2010
GNP
GDP
2.1-3.1
0.8-1.8
4.7-5.6
2.6-3.6
Quote from Standard and Poor
“Yes, the Philippines is 'lucky' because they have made
the necessary adjustments and reforms when times were
still good. So they are facing the global market problems
and economic slowdown from a considerably improved
position, compared to what they were in 3-4 years ago…
“The Philippines is an 'island of calm' currently, while
there is turmoil in the higher rated and previously stable
countries… ”
Thank you!