Transcript GLoF RISK MITIGATION MEASURES

Climate Change Adaptation
Experience of Bhutan
Karma Tshiteem
Secretary
Gross National Happiness Commission
Royal Government of Bhutan
Country Background
HDI Ranking
131/179 (HDI Statistical Update 2008)
Population living below national
poverty line 2007(Nu
1096.94/month)
23.2% (Poverty Analysis Report 2007,
National Statistics Bureau)
GDP growth rate in 2006/2007
fiscal year
8.5% (National Statistics Bureau, 2007)
GDP per capita income
2006/2007 fiscal year
US$ 1,414 (National Statistics Bureau, 2006)
in
GDP per capita income (PPP) in
2006
US$ 4,010 (HDI Statistical Update 2008)
Development classification
Least developed country (LDC)
Population size
634,982 (2005)
Development Context
1.
Overriding development philosophy of GNH
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4 pillars (socio-economic development, preservation of culture, environmental
sustainability and good governance)
Bhutan Development Index (BDI)
GNHC
Bhutan 2020 – a Vision for peace prosperity and happiness
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Long term development strategy for Bhutan
Development targets for all 4 pillars of GNH
Democratization process
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4.
Constitutional monarchy
First democratic elections and the new government
MDGs
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Adopted by UN GA in 2000
Bhutan on track to meet most of the targets (already met targets on proportion of
underweight children, access to clean drinking water and access to sanitation)
MDG NA and costing (Bhutan one of the first countries in Asia; resource
requirement of US$ 2.5 billion between 2006 and 2015)
Five Year Development Plans
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Key national development strategy
Tenth plan mainstreamed MDGs and overarching goal of poverty reduction
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Climate Change & Bhutan
• 1992: Signatory to UNFCCC
• 1995: Ratified UNFCCC
• 2000: Submitted Initial
National Communication and
1st GHG Inventory
• 2002: Acceded to Kyoto
Protocol
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Impacts of Climate Change in
Bhutan
• Agricultural Sector
– 80% of population
• Water Resources
– 30,000 MW potential power
generation
• Forests and Biodiversity
– 70% forest
– high diversity - Eastern
Himalayan hotspot
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Impacts of Climate Change in
Bhutan
• Natural Disasters
– Glacial Lake
Outbursts Floods
– landslides
• Human Health
– Increase in
tropical diseases
and heat stress
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1st National GHG Inventory
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Bhutan (1994)
94.77
0.05
500
19.22
2.13
19.17
2.13
133.69
NE
Emissions (Gg/year)
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
CO2
CH4
N2O
-2500
-3000
-3549.52
-3321.05
-3500
Bhutan: NAPA Process
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GHG Emissions by Sources & Sinks Categories
4/3/2016
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NAPA process
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Process started in 2004
Submitted to UNFCCC in 2005
Multi-sectoral approach
NAPA Team Composition
• Members of Initial National Communication
• Additional members from other sectors including, finance,
planning and NGO…
• Sectoral working groups
• Consultative process
– 4 regional consultative workshops
– Coordinate efforts with NCSA process
– Coordinate with other ongoing projects
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NAPA: Urgent and Immediate
Adaptation Needs
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Disaster Management Strategy
Artificial lowering of Thorthomi glacial lake
Weather forecasting system
Landslide management and flood prevention
Flood protection of downstream industrial and agriculture
area
Rainwater harvesting
GLOF hazard zonnation
Early warning system on Pho chhu basin
Community based forest fire management and prevention
NAPA: Lessons Learnt
• Multi-sectoral approach
• Good cooperation and collaboration
among stakeholders
• Good support from government
• Support from LDC Expert Group
• Awareness and advocacy for vulnerable
communities important
CC Adaptation in Bhutan
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2,674 glacial lakes in Bhutan Himalaya
25 potentially dangerous lakes
9 lakes in Pho Chu Basin
GLOFs along Pho Chu in 1958 and 1994
The “unexpected” 1994 GLOF caused
damage to Punakha Dzong, agricultural
land, and 21 lives
Potentially dangerous Lakes
Pho Chu Sub Basin : 9
14
Mo Chu Sub Basin : 5
Chamkhar Chu Sub Basin: 3
Kuri Chu Sub Basin: 1
Mangde Chu Sub Basin: 7
Out of 2794 glacial lakes, 25 has been identified as potentially dangerous lakes.
Source: DGM & ICIMOD publication
Glacial Lakes in Lunana
• Interconnected glacier and glacial lake systems.
Source: Google Earth 2008
TSENDA GANG
Punatshang
Chu
MASAGANG
TARINA
GANGCHEN TA
TSHOJU
CHUNAMI
LUNANA
WACHEY
PHO CHU
MO CHU
PUNAKHA
GLOF Project
NAPA (2004-05)
PDF B Phase
Project Document
Signed in Dec 2006
Full Size Project: 2008-2012
Submission of Prodoc
to GEF: Dec 2008
Activities implementation:
Jan-Dec 2007
GEF Sec Approval:
March 2008
Total Budget allocated:
US$ 180,000/-
Project signed in April 2008
Total Budget: US$ 7.48 million
Activity Implementation:
May 2008
Budget: GLOF Full Size Project
• Total Budget: US$ 7,481,274
• LDCF : US$ 3,445,050
• PDF B: US$ 180,000
• RGoB : US$ 2,680,000
• UNDP: US$ 396,224
• Austrian Government: E 600,000
• WWF Bhutan: US$ 30,000
Adaptation Measures
1. GLOF hazard zonation and vulnerability
assessment
• Lunana to Khuruthang town, Punakha: Austro-
Bhutanese (1999-2002)
• Khuruthang-Lhamoizingkha (Indo-Bhutan Border):
DGM under Netherlands Climate Assistance
Program (NCAP, 2007)
• Chamkhar valley, Bumthang: DGM in 2007 funded
by the Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Punakha
Dzong
Wangdi
Dzong
VTI
Khuruthang Town
Kamichu
Veg. Market
Zangdopelri
Bridge
Sonkosh
Lhamoizinkha
Adaptation Measures (Cont’d)
2. Artificial Lowering of lake water level
• Raphstreng Tso (1996-1998): Ministry of Home
and Cultural Affairs-- funded by the Government of
India
• Thorthormi Lake (2008-2012): Currently
implemented under UNDP/GEF Project with
funding from LDCF and cofinancing from
Government of Austria, UNDP, WWF Bhutan and
RGoB
Adaptation Measures (Cont’d)
• Thorthormi Lake Mitigation work: Objective
and Progress
– Goal: To lower the lake level by 5m
– Progress:
• Institutional arrangements for implementation set
up
• Project Board and Technical Support and Advisory
Team already met twice
• Engineering and safety plan for mitigation work
completed
• Environment Impact Assessment for mitigation
work completed
Engineering and Safety Plan
• Engineering and safety plan at Thorthormi Lake
carried out from August-October 2008
• Topographic survey of the area at 1:5000
• Geotechnical assessment
– Mapping of slide, stability assesment of moraine
dam
– Sample collection to determine cohesion, friction
angle, soil classification and the permeability
• Geophysical Investigation
– Seismic refraction
– Electrical resistivity
Engineering and Safety Plan (Cont’d)
• Civil Engineering
– Identification of appropriate location for outlet
channel excavation
– Engineering design for the mitigation work
– Estimation of volume of materials to be excavated
• Bathometric Survey
– To measure the depth of lake
• Safety Measures
– Communication setup
– Appropriate safety gears
– Onsite medical facility
– Emergency arrangements
Excavation Plan
140m
60m
40m
• Total Volume of materials to be excavated with 2% bed slope:
34209.74 m3
•Excavated materials to be dumped in the subsidiary lake
• The maximum side slope of the proposed channel should not
exceed 1:1.5 (V:H) at any phase
• Channel width of 10 m wide to provide sufficient working space for
the workers as well as for diverting the discharge from the lake
(base flow only) through its half width during the execution of the
work
Adaptation Measures (Cont’d)
Early Warning System
• Existing manual system operated by the Flood
Warning Unit, Department of Energy
• Initial plan to install a pilot EWS in PunakhaWangdue Valley by DGM (warning system and site
assessment conducted by DGM in 2007)
• The project will install a comprehensive EWS
system with additional funds from RGoB
Early Warning System
Sensor
54 mins
1 hr 24 mins
1 hr 40 mins
2 hrs 14 mins
Adaptation Measures (Cont’d)
GLOF Risk Awareness
• Awareness and Advocacy (Department of Disaster
Management)
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DRM framework already in place
National level workshop in Thimphu
DRM bill ready for adoption
Community level awareness conducted covering
Punakha, Wangdue, and Dagana districts
– District level/as well as community level planning and
training on disaster risk management ongoing
Conclusion
• The artificial lowering of Thorthormi Lake to began
from June 2009 and complete by 2012
• Work at site: June-October every year
• The mitigation measures are very challenging and
expensive
• Remoteness of the area
• Excavation has to be done manually and reduces output
drastically
• About 300 workers to be recruited
• The labourers should be provided incentives on top of the wages
• Communication, safety and emergency arrangements
PROJEC HOME PAGE
http://www.mti.gov.bt/dgm/DGM-UNDPGEF/main.html